Who fared better in 2013/14? The Swansea captain or the Cardiff captain? (Who may just be replacing him...)
Now this could be interesting. Given the consistent rumours surrounding Ashley Williams' future, and the new rumours linking us with a move for Steven Caulker (who fared so excellently for us on loan), I thought a good exercise would be to have a look to see who (statistically at least) comes out on top. Given we all know a bit about Caulker, and a lot about Ash, it should be fairly easy to put into context as we can relate the numbers to what we've seen over the past season - and beyond if the stats allow it!
As it turned out, Whoscored.com now provide stats going back four seasons - and I have a wealth of data to pore over! Whether any of it means anything you can't say, but let's have a look. I'll start with pass completion, as Ash can be taken as a good example of how we expect a Swansea centre-back to play. Ash's pass completion this season was 86.4% (0.01% up on last season) - Caulker's? 74.4% - 12.8% lower than in any previous season. The effect Cardiff's football had on this statistic in particular is quite remarkable, as he'd averaged 87.3% with us two seasons ago, and 89.7% with Tottenham last season. With that in mind it's hard to pin any blame on him for that - it's not his fault if he was being encouraged to play a style of football which saw him lose possession one pass out of four.
The average passes per game stats make for interesting reading too. Despite Ash's clear superiority this season in terms of pass completion, he made a hell of a lot more passes. He made 56.9 per game to Caulker's 34.9, while the Swans' defender made a significantly higher amount of accurate long balls - 5.7 per game to Caulker's 1.8. That makes Ash's pass completion even more remarkable if you ask me, and it shows he wasn't just pumping long balls aimlessly - in fact he made 194 successful long passes out of 323 attempted, giving him an average success rate of 60%. Caulkers? Around 40%, completing 70 of 178.
There are lots of stats for defenders which, if I'm honest, I don't put much credence in. Tackles and interceptions for example - ok, defenders having higher numbers in these categories seems good on paper, but I've always felt that these could be massively skewed. Surely a good defender shouldn't need to be making lots of tackles? Especially as part of an effective unit? For what it's worth, Caulker made 1.2 tackles per game last season, compared with 1.6 for Ash, while the Cardiff CB made 1.2 interceptions per game, as opposed to the 2.4 managed by his Swansea counterpart.
The interceptions stat could perhaps point to Ash being more proactive in being able to regain possession by intercepting opposition passes but as I say, the tackle stat is very subjective. If the midfield do their job properly, then surely a defender will make significantly less? Who knows. Some serious stats guys do agree that defensive stats are a bit of a quagmire at the moment, so maybe there is something in what I'm saying, but I'll plough on in the hope of drawing some fairly conclusive conclusions - which would be a first!
There's an interesting stat showing how many times someone dribbles past defenders. Both stand up well - Ash averages 0.4 occasions per game with Caulker actually averaging marginally less - 0.3. Interestingly Ash's figure is double what he's averaged in the prior two PL seasons (though it is still a very small number), while Caulker's is the same as when he played for the Swans. At Spurs he was only dribbled 0.1 times per game, which perhaps shows that defenders benefit from a higher calibre of player shielding them - which would back up what I've already said about defensive stats needing a good overhaul in general, as without context it's very hard to draw meaningful conclusions.
Next, clearances. It's another stat where both players fare very similarly, with Caulker averaging 8.6 last season and Ash 9.2, while Ash blocks 1.1 shots per game to Caulker's 1.5. Given our rival's plight this season you'd expect the blocked shots stat to be higher for the Cardiff man. The clearances stat shows they both perform the "clearing out" role normally carried out by one half of the centre-back partnership (Chico made 6.6 clearances per game for example), though Caulker's partner Ben Turner actually averaged 9.4 - possibly another indication of how under the cosh Cardiff were last season, and how often both their centre-backs needed to avert danger.
Back to ball retention, and both Ash & Caulker are only dispossessed, on average, 0.1 times per game. Caulker actually fares better when you look at turnovers (losing the ball through poor control etc), averaging a paltry 0.2 with Ash's figure double that at 0.4. In such a pressure-cooker environment that could actually be quite telling, especially if the ball is turned over in a dangerous position.
To be honest, I don't need stats to be able to tell you that Steven Caulker is a very good defender - that much has been obvious since he first joined us on loan a couple of seasons ago. Since then he also appears to have become a bit of a goal threat - scoring five goals last season to Ash's one, and an explanation is pretty evident when you look at average shots attempted. Caulker's is 0.9 per game, with Ash's less than half that at 0.4. I've said it on numerous occasions - you've got to be in it to win it!
All I've really come away from this piece thinking is that if you can put defensive stats into context you can prove certain points, but to be honest to be able to properly compare centre-backs I'd need a lot more data than is available, and a hell of a lot more time. That being said, there are stats that jump out - notably the passing stats, and how much a team's playing style can affect them over the course of the season. I still don't think Ash leaving is a foregone conclusion, and the possibility of him teaming up with Steven Caulker again is very intriguing indeed. An improvement on Chico, that's for sure.
With talk only emerging of a move for Caulker in the last few days it remains to be seen whether anything more concrete will develop. One thing you can say for certain though, is that if he does come to the Swans he'll complete more than three passes out of four next season. Let's get him back to the Swansea way, as it were.
As it turned out, Whoscored.com now provide stats going back four seasons - and I have a wealth of data to pore over! Whether any of it means anything you can't say, but let's have a look. I'll start with pass completion, as Ash can be taken as a good example of how we expect a Swansea centre-back to play. Ash's pass completion this season was 86.4% (0.01% up on last season) - Caulker's? 74.4% - 12.8% lower than in any previous season. The effect Cardiff's football had on this statistic in particular is quite remarkable, as he'd averaged 87.3% with us two seasons ago, and 89.7% with Tottenham last season. With that in mind it's hard to pin any blame on him for that - it's not his fault if he was being encouraged to play a style of football which saw him lose possession one pass out of four.
The average passes per game stats make for interesting reading too. Despite Ash's clear superiority this season in terms of pass completion, he made a hell of a lot more passes. He made 56.9 per game to Caulker's 34.9, while the Swans' defender made a significantly higher amount of accurate long balls - 5.7 per game to Caulker's 1.8. That makes Ash's pass completion even more remarkable if you ask me, and it shows he wasn't just pumping long balls aimlessly - in fact he made 194 successful long passes out of 323 attempted, giving him an average success rate of 60%. Caulkers? Around 40%, completing 70 of 178.
There are lots of stats for defenders which, if I'm honest, I don't put much credence in. Tackles and interceptions for example - ok, defenders having higher numbers in these categories seems good on paper, but I've always felt that these could be massively skewed. Surely a good defender shouldn't need to be making lots of tackles? Especially as part of an effective unit? For what it's worth, Caulker made 1.2 tackles per game last season, compared with 1.6 for Ash, while the Cardiff CB made 1.2 interceptions per game, as opposed to the 2.4 managed by his Swansea counterpart.
The interceptions stat could perhaps point to Ash being more proactive in being able to regain possession by intercepting opposition passes but as I say, the tackle stat is very subjective. If the midfield do their job properly, then surely a defender will make significantly less? Who knows. Some serious stats guys do agree that defensive stats are a bit of a quagmire at the moment, so maybe there is something in what I'm saying, but I'll plough on in the hope of drawing some fairly conclusive conclusions - which would be a first!
There's an interesting stat showing how many times someone dribbles past defenders. Both stand up well - Ash averages 0.4 occasions per game with Caulker actually averaging marginally less - 0.3. Interestingly Ash's figure is double what he's averaged in the prior two PL seasons (though it is still a very small number), while Caulker's is the same as when he played for the Swans. At Spurs he was only dribbled 0.1 times per game, which perhaps shows that defenders benefit from a higher calibre of player shielding them - which would back up what I've already said about defensive stats needing a good overhaul in general, as without context it's very hard to draw meaningful conclusions.
Next, clearances. It's another stat where both players fare very similarly, with Caulker averaging 8.6 last season and Ash 9.2, while Ash blocks 1.1 shots per game to Caulker's 1.5. Given our rival's plight this season you'd expect the blocked shots stat to be higher for the Cardiff man. The clearances stat shows they both perform the "clearing out" role normally carried out by one half of the centre-back partnership (Chico made 6.6 clearances per game for example), though Caulker's partner Ben Turner actually averaged 9.4 - possibly another indication of how under the cosh Cardiff were last season, and how often both their centre-backs needed to avert danger.
Back to ball retention, and both Ash & Caulker are only dispossessed, on average, 0.1 times per game. Caulker actually fares better when you look at turnovers (losing the ball through poor control etc), averaging a paltry 0.2 with Ash's figure double that at 0.4. In such a pressure-cooker environment that could actually be quite telling, especially if the ball is turned over in a dangerous position.
To be honest, I don't need stats to be able to tell you that Steven Caulker is a very good defender - that much has been obvious since he first joined us on loan a couple of seasons ago. Since then he also appears to have become a bit of a goal threat - scoring five goals last season to Ash's one, and an explanation is pretty evident when you look at average shots attempted. Caulker's is 0.9 per game, with Ash's less than half that at 0.4. I've said it on numerous occasions - you've got to be in it to win it!
All I've really come away from this piece thinking is that if you can put defensive stats into context you can prove certain points, but to be honest to be able to properly compare centre-backs I'd need a lot more data than is available, and a hell of a lot more time. That being said, there are stats that jump out - notably the passing stats, and how much a team's playing style can affect them over the course of the season. I still don't think Ash leaving is a foregone conclusion, and the possibility of him teaming up with Steven Caulker again is very intriguing indeed. An improvement on Chico, that's for sure.
With talk only emerging of a move for Caulker in the last few days it remains to be seen whether anything more concrete will develop. One thing you can say for certain though, is that if he does come to the Swans he'll complete more than three passes out of four next season. Let's get him back to the Swansea way, as it were.