The Wilf of Wind Street – is it time to sell high?
@ajmcglashan looks at whether now may be the time to cash in on Bony
Before I really get into this debate, I need to put down a small disclaimer. I just want to go on record to say that I absolutely love Wilfried Bony. I think he has been immense this season and in addition to his goals he has provided so much entertainment as he consistently dares centre backs to try and muscle him off the ball - we'll all never forget that moment in the Cardiff game when he basically walked Turner across the pitch with ease. He must be the strongest player ever to play for the Swans, although Kevin Austin may have something to say about that. Austin was solid as a rock and played in front of Willy, who had a ... anyway, I digress.
Nevertheless rumours and reports are emerging regarding a possible transfer for Bony this summer, which isn’t surprising given the season he has had. This got me to asking myself, should we sell Bony if a good value offer is made?
Then I started to think about Michu and how the same questions were being asked last year. Obviously hindsight is a beautiful thing but Michu has not got anywhere near the heights of last year for one reason or another. Any offer now for his services would be nowhere near the £20m being touted last summer and Michu barely contributed to our season.
Finally, this led me to ask the more general question, should teams sell players when they are “hot” and get the most money possible, or keep them and hope they can continue to reproduce their form for a second season? I decided to do a little research to see how first season stand out performers, specifically strikers as scoring goals is always hard to replicate, have done in their second season in the Premier League and beyond:
Papiss Cisse - Newcastle
When Newcastle signed Cisse midway through the 2011/12 season for £9m from SC Freiburg a lot was expected. He was even given the famous number 9 shirt. Cisse responded by scoring 13 times in 14 league games, which is an outrageous goal to games ratio. Following his first season success, he has gone on to score only 10 goals in 60 league appearances and looks a shadow of the player who scored that belter at Chelsea. Newcastle would now be lucky to recoup anywhere near the £9m they originally paid for him.
Verdict: Newcastle have lost out by keeping rather than selling.
Roque Santa-Cruz – Blackburn
Santa-Cruz joined Blackburn in the 2007/08 season from Bayern Munich for £3.5m and went on to score 19 league goals in his first season. In his second season he went on to score a mere 4 league goals with reports of his head being turned by a rumoured move to Man City. Despite this poor season he was eventually signed by Manchester City for £17.5m in the summer of 2009. He scored a disappointing 3 league goals for Man City that season before falling out of favour and being loaned out to a number of clubs without much success.
Verdict: Blackburn played a blinder by selling him for £17.5m.
Andy Carroll – Newcastle
Carroll came to prominence during Newcastle’s one season in the Championship during 2009/10, scoring 19 goals that season and helping Newcastle to bounce back to the Premier League at the first time of asking . He was then bought by Liverpool for £35m (yes £35 million!) in January 2011 following an impressive first few months in the Premier League, scoring 11 league goals in 18 games. Since this move, and his subsequent move to West Ham, he has registered only 15 times in the league in three and a half seasons. Admittedly an argument here could be that Carroll has been plagued with injuries but that is part and part of football and is always a risk for a player (see Michu this season for example).
Verdict: Newcastle sold at the right time (although I admit the transfer fee was so big it couldn’t be turned down).
Nikica Jelavic – Everton
Jelavic signed for Everton in January 2012 from Rangers for £5.5m following an impress previous 18 months in which he had scored 30 league goals in 45 appearances. Jelavic continued this fine form into his first Premier League season with Everton scoring 11 goals in 16 games. In his next 46 league games for Everton he managed only 7 goals. This led to his eventual move to Hull in January of this season for an undisclosed fee but this was certainly a lot less than what Everton could have sold him for at the end of the 2012.
Verdict: Everton hoped he could rekindle his form but eventually made a loss on him by doing so.
Christian Benteke – Aston Villa
Benteke is another who was on fire in his first season and was linked to £20m plus offers last summer. Such reports have now died away following the Belgian’s less impressive second season and eventual serious injury. Villa will hope that Benteke will be able to re-discover his previous form in his third season because otherwise any transfer would be drastically less than £20m plus, and that’s only if they stay up!
Verdict: Remains to be seen but wouldn’t be surprised if he struggles next season and Villa eventually sell him for a reduced price (possibly forced by this or next season’s relegation).
Now this article clearly has only a very limited scope and there are of course first season wonders who have gone on to perform in their second season and beyond (Lukaku & Suarez for example). Similarly, there are far more one season wonders I could have included (Benni McCarthy, Odemwinge, Beattie) which suggests that it does make business sense to cash in whilst you can on a “hot” striker.
The above must be food for thought for the Swansea board. I actually hope the board don’t sell Bony this summer, regardless of how good a World Cup he has (see my esteemed colleague’s previous article on this - Link). I also think Bony should look at the long list of Swansea players who moved teams and failed to reproduce the form they showed for Swansea.
However, should a big money offer come in for the Ivorian which is accepted, perhaps after reading this article you may understand why the board would sanction any move for the “Wilf of Wind Street”.
Sometimes in business you just have to sell high.