With the bottom half of the table so tight, an unusually low points total could be enough to see the Swans (and others) to safety
With the Premier League now over twenty years old, there are certain things which have become ingrained in the collective consciences of football fans. No matter how many teams seem liable to vie for the Champions League spots it seems we always see talk of a "Big Four", no matter how much money they spend it seems pointless backing Spurs for the Champions League, and any team that gets to the fourty point mark is safe from relegation.
How much truth is there in these accepted pieces of football wisdom though? As for the two former, well to be honest it doesn't really effect us so let's look at the latter. Do we need fourty points to stay up this season?
A quick recap of the season so far would seem to suggest not. With the bottom half of the table as congested as at any time in recent memory points really have been at a premium this season, and it seems the disparity between the "elite" clubs and everyone else is growing. With most clubs having around ten games left to play and eleven clubs on thirty-one points or less, it's distinctly possible that this season we could stay up with a much lower points tally than is traditionally needed.
Key to how things pan out between now and the end of the season is the fixture list. Who has the tougher run in? Let's have a look.
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| *games yet to be arranged |
As you can see, I've been busy! Now, I know there is absolutely no science behind me doing predictions in that manner and I'd agree that given how many variables are in play it's almost a futile exercise, but in truth I did it more to get a feel of if anyone had a particularly hard run-in - and by my reckoning Norwich clearly have the most grueling. Their last four games are Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea & Arsenal - at that stage in the season those are not teams you want to see on your fixture list.
I was rooting around online and I came across this graphic on the Football365 website, calculating a final table based on clubs' performance so far this season:
Maybe there is something in my predictions after all! They have the same three teams to go down as me, though they think they'll get a couple more points than I've given them credit for. Who's right? Well, to be honest it doesn't really make much difference, as the reason I was looking at this is to try and work out how many points we'll need to stay up - and even if we go with Football365's higher total it's still a paltry thirty-four points - possibly even thirty-three!
Given you're supposed to need fourty points to stay up, potentially doing so whilst winning two games less than usual points to just how many more points the big teams are taking off their "lesser" rivals, and how much tighter things have been this season. If either of these predictions are correct, the Swans only need to win two games between now and the end of the season to stay up - and with West Brom, Norwich & Aston Villa all to come to the Liberty you feel that our Premier League fate is firmly in our own hands.
It remains to be seen who'll occupy the three relegation spaces come the end of the season, but if we can secure anything over thirty-five points I'm fairly certain that'll be enough for us to avoid relegation.
Fairly certain...