Wednesday, 3 September 2014

The stats that show Swans should be playing for England

Should Swansea's English stars be getting into the England squad ahead of the likes of Delph, Colback & Townsend? I'd say so...



With the recent announcement of the England squad to face Norway & Switzerland, there came a familiar feeling amongst the Swansea faithful that once again some of our English players were hard done by in terms of international selection. Nathan Dyer has started the season on fire, Wayne Routledge has a wondergoal and an (inadvertent) assist, while Jonjo Shelvey - against West Brom in particular - looked in very fine form indeed. 

For me, I'd say based on last season and the beginning of this campaign Shelvey should definitely be in the England squad. What's more, I'd say at least one of Dyer and Routledge should be in ahead of Andros "Run run kick it over the bar" Townsend. Obviously though, that's just my opinion and it's obviously not one shared by Roy Hodgson. I mean, goals and assists are such overrated statistics, right?

With that in mind, I thought I'd use player radars to compare Dyer & Routledge to Townsend, and also to compare Shelvey to Delph & Colback. Let's go with the wingers first. 




As statistician Ted Knutson said when he first did a radar for Townsend a while back, he tries so much but produces so little. In terms of actual output Dyer & Routledge are ahead of the Spurs winger (although that is particularly easy given his one goal and no assists), and that's without considering the rampant start both our wide-men have made this season. To give you an idea of Townsend's profligacy for Spurs, he's now had over sixty shots while playing for the Lilywhites, scoring one goal. Which was a mishit cross. Yeah, that's the guy you want playing on the wing for your country.

It seems obvious to me that either or both of the Swans' English wingers should be ahead of Andros Townsend in the pecking order for the England squad, but obviously at present Roy Hodgson doesn't agree. Keep playing like they are though and they'll get their chance soon enough.

Let's now move on to central midfield. There are two potential radars for central midfielders - a central/defensive midfielder radar and an attacking midfielder/forward radar. In the interest of accuracy and fairness, I ran Jonjo Shelvey, Fabian Delph & Jack Colback through both to see what their output was like in both defence and attack. Let's look at attacking output first.




The first thing that's strikingly obvious is how little Colback & Delph give in attack. Ok, neither are attacking midfielders but given how far forward Delph finds himself regularly, and Colback's (albeit tongue-in-cheek) nickname "Ginger Pirlo" you'd expect there to be a bit more in the way of attacking output. The only thing either of the players called up to the England spike in is defensive actions, not being dispossessed and passing, though Colback, in fairness, is pretty clinical in front of goal. He's clearly not in those positions very often though.

Shelvey on the other hand got six goals and six assists last year, and obviously produces a lot more. If the England squad isn't run in a "system-based" manner, and you're simply picking the "best" players who are likely to produce something, surely Shelvey should be in the mix? Especially given Lampard's retirement from international football and Gerrard's advancing years. 

Now let's look at defensive contribution.





What jumps out here is that even though only Shelvey really shows off in the attacking template, no player spikes particularly highly in terms of defensive actions. Shelvey makes fewer tackles and interceptions, but he's dribbled past less and given how little the other players offer in attack surely you'd be better off with the ex-Charlton and Liverpool man? Especially when you consider that he'd likely have someone like Jordan Henderson alongside him who would compliment his more expansive game.

Personally my opinion, even before looking at stats, was that based on the last 12 months it was very, very harsh not to include Shelvey in this England squad. The way the England team is set up surely Shelvey is an ideal player - he's always liable to do, try or create something and at international level, if you're as yet to instill an overriding system or playing style into your national team, surely that's your best bet?

Hodgson has said today that Shelvey & Dyer are both in consideration for international callups, and you'd have to assume the same goes for Wayne Routledge too. In my opinion though, they should already be there.