Friday, 19 September 2014

Swansea v Southampton - Preview, predicted lineups, stats, prior form, key players, team news, quotes & analysis



The Match


Swansea come into the match off the back of their first defeat of the season. Prior to a 4-2 reverse at Stamford Bridge we'd been victorious in all our matches thus far (three league wins and one in the Capital One Cup), so it's the first test of the Swans' bouncebackability this season. Monk has spoken this week about the need for the players to manage portions of the game better, especially when under pressure from the opponent, and an in-form Southampton side will offer a thorough examination. With Leon still absent the Swans engine room of Ki, Shelvey & Sigurdsson will again be tasked with running the centre of the park, though they'll likely have a tougher time against a Saints side who, despite losing some key players, still have a formidable midfield.

Southampton seem to have settled well under Ronald Koeman, and are unbeaten in their last four matches since losing at Anfield on the opening day of the season. I can't say I've seen too much of them but reports are good, and they looked very good in their demolition of Newcastle last time out. Impressively, they've only conceded three goals in five games (and only one since opening day), so we may need to be patient in order to break them down. With Arsenal and Spurs away in the next three games following their trip to the Liberty, Koeman will undoubtedly be keen to come back from South Wales with a point, or even three, in tow.

Prior Form (Most recent at top)


Premier LeagueChelsea4-2Swansea
Premier LeagueSwansea3-0WBA
League CupSwansea1-0Rotherham
Premier LeagueSwansea1-0Burnley
Premier LeagueMan Utd1-2Swansea




Premier LeagueSouthampton4-0Newcastle
Premier LeagueWest Ham1-3Southampton
League CupMillwall0-2Southampton
Premier LeagueSouthampton0-0WBA
Premier LeagueLiverpool2-1Southampton

 

Completely guessed lineups




Team News - Provided by injury guru @BenDinnery


Displaying Premier Injuries.jpgFor Swansea, Jordi Amat will be absent for the home side after a post-match scan confirmed the Spanish defender had damaged lateral ligaments in a challenge moments before halt-time at Stamford Bridge – Frederico Fernandez the man likely to deputise. Wilfried Bony could return to the starting eleven - with Gomis stepping down – the Ivorian arrived back late from international duty last weekend. Marvin Emnes moved closer to full fitness following a knee injury when he completed 90 minutes for the development squad midweek – the Dutchman will be hoping for some minutes from the bench. Leon Britton and Rory Donnelly are still at least a month away.

For Southampton striker Shane Long has recovered from the minor head injury which forced his early withdrawal last weekend but Saturday will come too early for Sam Gallagher (knee) although Lloyd Isgrove is close. Sadio ManĂ© has been granted his work permit but won’t arrive at Southampton until Friday – the player will be assessed but is unlikely to feature - Ronald Koeman expects his new signing to feature midweek. Jay Rodriguez (ACL) is slightly ahead of schedule but the Saints coach refuses to put a timescale on his return.

Thanks as usual to Ben for providing us with up-to-date team news. You can follow him on Twitter @BenDinnery, and you can also find him on Talksport, ESPN & PremierInjuries.com

 

Key Players


A new feature in the preview this year, I'll be using statistical radars to show two of the key attacking threats on display

This week we've got Wilfried Bony vs Graziano Pelle. First up are radars using stats from last season.

 

Wilfried Bony vs Graziano Pelle (2013/14)

 




As you can see Pelle enjoyed a spiffing season in front of goal, though he was playing in the particularly goal-happy Dutch league. That, the same as Bony the prior year, earned him a move to the Premier League, and as the next radars (for 2014/15) show, he's started life on the south coast very well.

Wilfried Bony vs Graziano Pelle (2014/15)



Pelle has scored three goals to Bony's none so far this season, so in terms of scoring contribution obviously Pelle is in front for now. Whether that's going to be the same come the end of the season remains to be seen. Personally I'm amazed Wilf hasn't scored before this weekend's matchup, so I firmly expect that the next time I go to put together a radar for his performances this season, there'll be a big spike next to "Goal conversion" and "Non-Penalty Goals".


Statistics & Trivia


  • Southampton have scored seven goals in their last two games. 
  • Swansea are yet to concede a goal at home this season in all competitions (three games).
  • Southampton have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 matches against Swansea in all competitions.
  • Swansea have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 matches against Southampton in all competitions.
  • Swansea City have gone 287 minutes of football without a goal against Southampton.
  • Saints did the double over Swansea last season and are unbeaten in five overall against them (W2 D3). 
  • There have been just five goals scored in the four Barclays Premier League meetings between Southampton and Swansea City. 
  • Swansea are one of only two teams to have won both of their home games in the Premier League this season (alongside Chelsea).
  • Southampton are looking to win three games in a row for only the third time since returning to the Premier League in August 2012. 
  • Graziano Pelle has scored three goals from just six shots on target in the Premier League for Southampton.
  • Nathan Dyer has scored with all three of his shots on target for Swansea this season. 
  • Gylfi Sigurdsson has assisted four goals in four appearances this season.

Straight from the horse's mouth

  

Garry Monk has fond memories of his time spent at Southampton:

"Southampton definitely taught me a lot with the players we had at that time. We had Matt Le Tissier, Jason Dodd, who was the captain, Francis Benali and older pros like Dan Petrescu, Andrei Kanchelskis, Carlton Palmer, David Hirst and Mark Hughes came in. They'd been in and around the game for so long and they were great with me and the younger boys.

"I was in the first-team environment at that point, learning my trade alongside Claus Lundekvam and Dean Richards, and they were really hard on us but fair. Three or four of them were at the club for over ten years and coming up to their testimonial and I ended up going that long here.

"Whether that had an effect I don't know, but I definitely learned loyalty and dedication from those guys. Even when they weren't playing at the end of their careers the dedication to their trade and club was amazing and I probably took that on board."
http://www.fifa.com/world-match-centre/nationalleagues/nationalleague=england-premier-league-2000000000/news/newsid/244/163/0/index.html

Ronald Koeman says it's too early to say whether the Swans and the Saints can maintain their current form:

“It’s so [soon] into the season but what I am happy about is that, after a lot of changes, the team is doing well, the team shows a good spirit, the team shows ambition. We had a great game last Saturday for our fans. This Saturday is a new one and we would like to keep winning and continue winning.

“If you win, you win points and you will be up in the table and we will see where it ends. If we play like our philosophy then normally we will be up in the league, because we have a good team, we have good players. We need time, we know that, but until now I am very happy with the performance of Southampton.

“It’s nice to see how they play [Swansea], because it’s similar to what we like to do and how we like to play. It’s a team who do a very good pressing in the midfield and it’s a team who likes to dominate the opponent. I think it’s similar to what we like to do and how we play. I think that will be very interesting for this Saturday.”
http://www.saintsfc.co.uk/news/article/20140918-ronald-koeman-pre-swansea-city-away-1927067.aspx#JKrtgau2wGVYVi2r.99

Analysis


Last weekend we were playing in a first vs second match, and this weekend we've got ourselves a third vs fourth matchup. I could get used to this! This weekend's game with Southampton is in a different category to any of our league matches so far, as up until now I'd say we've played what amounted to a cup fixture (Man Utd), two matches at home we'd be expected to win (WBA & Burnley), an actual cup fixture we'd be expected to win (Rotherham), and a game we we were expected to lose (Chelsea away).

This is different though. If the Swans have a successful season we'd be looking to finish in a similar kind of position to where Southampton would like to end up in the table, and I think realistically we should consider ourselves - or at the very least we should aim to be - on a par with Southampton. Yes they've had the academy longer and they're ahead of us in terms of infrastructure, but results are what matters and with the players at our disposal there's no reason to be intimidated by the South Coast side.

They've got good players of their own though, granted. Pelle looks a typical Italian goalscorer, while despite the summer clearout they've still got a wealth of riches in midfield. Personally I'm a massive fan of a number of their players - Victor Wanyama is an absolute beast at the base of the midfield while another of their summer acquisitions, Dusan Tadic, is a real baller. Watch out for him. Jack Cork has also played his way into the team after being linked with us this summer, and he'll undoubtedly be keen to impress as he aims to cement his spot in the starting eleven.

A look at Saints' prospective lineup would say they're likely to have pace and quality all over the park. I can't help but wonder though if targeting Clyne and Bertrand may be our best option; while they are both good defenders with bundles of pace I think Sigurdsson may be able to play our wingers in behind them and create problems. That's where we've looked dangerous so far, and you don't fix what aint broken. What's more Wilf has gone three games without a goal - that can't continue and I'm backing him to find the net this weekend.

This is a game which, if we're serious about pushing on up the table, we need to be winning. You win your home games against those around you and the rest takes care of itself, and to be honest from what we've seen from Monk's Swansea so far there's reason to believe we'll target a result from every game we play this season. I'm confident of a home win despite the quality Southampton possess, but I'm firmly aware all my predictions are tinged by my bias and that in reality this is a very close match.

I'll leave you with a stat which should bring a smile to the faces of Swansea fans across the land. No team with more than seven points after four games has ever been relegated from the Premier League.  We've got nine. Safe. Now that relegation worries have been put to bed we can concentrate on the job at hand and get on with beating Southampton. Game bloody on!