Thursday, 18 September 2014

Swansea City - Safe from relegation. Statistically.

No team with the Swans' current points total after four games has ever been relegated from the Premier League



Good morning! I think I just turned a slow news day into a day where we've got a good stat to debate. I was looking at a table of the Premier League, and after recently commenting on The JackCast that I thought we were already safe from relegation I wondered whether, statistically, that panned out. So I got in touch with everybody's favourite stats account on Twitter, OptaJoe. Appropriate.

Here's what I tweeted, and Opta's response:


As you can see, no team with more than seven points from their opening four games has ever been relegated from the Premier League. Ever. Are we safe? Personally I think so. Say for example we need thirty-eight points for survival this season (although I actually think it might even be a little lower than that), that leaves us needing another twenty-nine points. From thirty-four games. That means we need to pick up around 0.85 points per game for the rest of the season, which winning one game in three would achieve - and some. 

Obviously, football is a funny old game and stranger things have happened than this kind of trend being broken, but I can't see it. Swansea City safe already? I'd say so.