Showing posts with label stats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stats. Show all posts

Saturday, 1 March 2014

Napoli 3 - 1 Swansea - Stats & review

The Swansea Way has once again dipped into the transfer market, and is pleased to introduce new contributor Dan Barnett of www.wearepremierleague.com. Dan loves stats even more than I do, so expect the amount of graphs featuring on the site to increase exponentially! Welcome aboard, Dan!


There's been plenty of mentions of 'brave' or 'battling' Swansea but for me that doesn't do justice to the performance over the two legs.  Those words suggest a 'backs to the wall', blood and guts approach when in reality we created the better chances and had control of the two games for large periods.


Shots by minute from the 2nd leg: Napoli with early pressure but Swans with plenty of chances
Over the two legs, Swansea had 20 shots on target to Napoli's 5, partly due to some poor attempts by Higuain.

Overall the Swans will be left with plenty of if-only's but the fact that there was no discernable difference in ability of the two teams is a huge credit to the team.

Sunday's game against Palace is a huge one, win and the feel-good factor continues and creates a decent sized cushion over the bottom teams, lose and it's 3 defeats in a row and people will start to get twitchy again especially given it'll be two weeks before the West Brom game with a number of other sides playing a game on 8th/9th March.

The main jobs for a manager are motivation and organisation and so far Monk has shown impressive qualities which will be needed again for the Palace match.  As well as the change in atmosphere, there's also been a shift in approach which I'll look in to in more detail after the Palace game.

Check out Dan's website at www.wearepremierleague.com, or on Twitter @We_R_PL

All statistics used sourced from www.whoscored.com

Thursday, 21 November 2013

Huw confirms interest in Tom Ince

Swans supremo Huw Jenkins admits he's likely to speak with Blackpool regarding Tom Ince


Seems there is something in this after all! Talking to the Daily Mail (urgh), Jenkins had this to say regarding the likelihood he'll be contacting Blackpool regarding the availability of Tom Ince:

"He is a very good young player and one we looked at in the summer - I would say it is likely that we will be talking to Blackpool again. I know their chairman, Karl Oyston, and when the time is right we will make contact and see what can be done."  
http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11095/9032706/?

It's now a waiting game to see if Ince actually fancies a move to South Wales, or whether we'll be gazumped by a suitor with deeper pockets. Let's hope he fancies football over fiscal flatulence. 

For a look at how he compares to Nathan Dyer & Wayne Routledge based on this season's performance, check out a piece I did the other day full of lovely statistics:


Would you like to see Tom Ince brought in? How much should we be looking to pay for him? Would you rather see someone else brought in? If so, who would you pick? Get involved using the new MatchChat tool directly below every piece!

Tuesday, 19 November 2013

Bony has 10 in 13 starts, but how does he compare to other PL strikers?

Fans have been slow to warm to the iron-thighed Ivorian, can his stats help win people over?


First off (as any regular readers of the blog will know) I'm a massive fan of Wilfried Bony. For me, ten goals in thirteen starts is more than enough to warrant any striker retaining his spot in the team, but as I say it'd be interesting to see how "similar" players stack up statistically.

Bony has 4 Premier League goals in ten PL appearances (although he's only started five times). That gives him 533 minutes on the field of play, which works out to 133.25 minutes per goal. In all competitions his rate actually gets even better, with ten goals in eighteen appearances (thirteen starts) at a rate of a goal every 118.1 minutes. Not bad for a player some have accused of...well...just about everything negative you can shout at someone you're supposed to be supporting.

When compared with other strikers (and you include assists in the build up to goals), Bony is involved in a goal every 106.4 minutes (17th best in the league) - and honestly, the players with better figures than that are unsurprising in their stature. Directly above him are Giroud, Negredo, Lukaku & Sturridge, while the list is topped by others such as Podolski, the Ox, Suarez & Aguero. If you filter out players who've made minimal appearances (Podolski, Lamela, Oxlade-Chamberlain and, remarkably, Pablo), Wilfried Bony rises to 13th best in the PL. Not bad considering the competition, and the amount of stick he's been receiving.

Furthermore, Bony is dispossessed on average once a game, and gives it up through poor control on average twice per ninety minutes. When compared with Sturridge (2.9 & 2.5), Suarez (2.3 & 2.8) and Aguero (2.8 & 2.6), it really isn't that bad, and fans should get off his back if he attempts a flick which doesn't come off. He's got the ability, but if he's berated any time he tries anything other than to retain possession with a five yard pass he's unlikely to score many goals, such will be his reluctance to actually try to create something.

Ok, so I've plucked some random stats out and if I really wanted to make an argument for Bony to improve based on numbers I could probably have done so, however his statistics back up what I've been saying for a while - he's doing alright. Once properly "Premier League fit" and bedded into the side, he will score lots of goals. My main concern is he will get fed up of the vocal minority who clearly don't understand his game, and sling his hook in the summer - my gut instinct tells me that next season will be his break out season and I for one want him to spend it in SA1.

Wilfried Bony - understated, underrated and under-appreciated. I quite like that...

Monday, 18 November 2013

A profile of Swans target Thomas Ince

Tricky winger has been courting attention for a while, but how do his stats compare to the Swans' wingers?


We've been linked with Tom Ince before. In fairness though, pretty much everyone has been linked with him at some point, however it is now rumoured he fancies a move to the Swans over various other suitors. Given Cardiff had previously agreed terms with both the player and the club during the summer (as reportedly widely by the BBC and others) before Ince himself pulled the plug on the move, it would surprise me if only six months later he turned around and said "I want to move to the Swans" but stranger things have happened in football I guess.

A tricky left-footed winger, Ince started out at Liverpool (one of his dad Paul's previous clubs), but failed to break into the first team. A short spell on loan at Notts County followed, before Blackpool managed to snaffle him up in a deal which saw a nominal amount of compensation awarded to the Merseyside club. There was, however, a 35% sell-on fee added into the contract, so this explains the lofty price tag that's been attached. With just over six months to run on his contract Blackpool are looking to cash in, but they're aware that unless they get over £5million for him they're unlikely to receive much in the way of a financial boost.

Stats then. The stand out statistic that jumps out at you is that in ninety-five league appearances Ince has grabbed thirty-two goals. Very, very impressive for a winger, and not far off the level of goal-scoring Sinclair was maintaining at Championship level. Can he step it up? Let's hope so. In all competitions he's got 34 in 109, but as he's not 22 until January you'd expect him to be able to kick on again before too long. I'm wondering whether Ince does indeed possess a shade of Scott Sinclair about him - let's hope he sticks around and/or manages to step up a level if he does move to the Premiership, as opposed to taking a bumper contract at a major club and rotting in the reserves for a year.

Now, I know it's dangerous comparing stats of players playing in different leagues, but I thought "Sod it, it's the international break and I'm bored" so I'm doing it anyway. All stats are sourced from Whoscored.com and based on this season.

First up - dribbles. Ince makes 1.9 successful dribbles a game, whereas Wayne Routledge has made 0.8. Nathan Dyer, on the other hand, has made 1.8 which reflects what fans have thought of late, in that he's been the more aggressive, forward facing option amongst the Swansea wingers. Ince is, alarmingly, dispossessed 3.5 times a game - over triple either Routledge's 1 or Dyer's 1.1. I guess that, coupled with his high average dribble count, that means he's taking people on a lot. How successful he's been at it this season is something you'll have to ask a Blackpool fan, but six goals and two assists in twelve games (eleven starts) dwarfs the two goals no assists managed by Dyer, and the two assists no goals managed by Routledge.

As the saying goes, you've got to be in it to win it. Unsurprisingly, if you order the three aforementioned players by their average shots per game, it matches how they'd stack up if you went by their goal tally. Routledge shoots on average 0.8 times per game, Dyer 1.3 and Ince 2.9 - or 0,2 and 6 goals respectively. More shots, more goals. It also seems Ince has an eye for a pass, averaging 1.4 key passes a game (which really isn't bad considering the way these stats are compiled), a figure matched by Routledge with Dyer coming in just behind at 1.2. Like Dyer (2), Ince gives the ball away 2.1 times a game, with Routledge slightly better off at 1.7.

If you look at passes in general, Ince weighs in a fair bit lighter than either Dyer or Routledge. They complete 36.2 and 35.6 passes at 86.8% and 83.4% respectively, whereas Ince completes 26 passes per game, averaging 81.7% accuracy, but as I've said before I believe that pretty much any player coming in to the Swans' setup will see a rise in these kind of numbers. Ince also makes more long range passes. 1.6 crosses and 1.5 successful long balls per game beats Dyer & Routledge all ends up - Dyer makes 0.7 and 0.1, Routledge 0.5 and 1.1 respectively. Given Bony's penalty-area presence, that's a criminally small output from players who are supposed to provide the striker with ammunition.

Defensively, Nathan Dyer and Wayne Routledge both have their strong points, whereas Ince...doesn't really. Dyer makes 1.6 tackles per game, which outweighs Routledge & Ince (both 0.7), and Routledge makes 1.5 interceptions per game - better than either the 0.7 averaged by Ince or the 0.4 Dyer accrues. Again, it's a different system he's playing in, and a different league, but it does make for interesting reading.

Now that I've had a look through some stats, I'm getting the feeling of a raw talent. Whether he's someone who'd fit in with how we do things here I can't personally say, but it appears the powers that be in SA1 hold him in high regard. If you're talking in general terms, however, he's young and British - a combination that's known to be looked fondly upon in these parts - and rightly so.

It seems all that remains to be seen is whether talks of a deal between Blackpool & the Swans are premature, or if they are indeed on the mark. Personally, I do think the money that was being talked about (around £7million or £8million) is too rich for our tastes. It's fairly openly acknowledged the only reason his fee is so high is because Blackpool want to maximise the profit, so the buying club may well have to drag out negotiations until deadline day in order to knock a million or two off the asking price.

This leaves Ince at a strange crossroads where unless something gives, Blackpool could face losing him on a free in the summer. That seems an unlikely eventuality if money is on the table though, so you never know - Huw could pull one of his super-duper deals out of the hat. It must be said though, that a loan with a view to a permanent deal seems much more likely, given our (justified) reluctance to spend serious money in January.

I'll finish this up with a video - see for yourselves what we could be getting. Would you like to see Ince brought in? If not, who else would you like to see strutting their stuff in SA1?




Tuesday, 12 November 2013

The reason fans will take time to warm to Wilfried Bony

Most fans, myself included, simply don't know what to expect from a top-level striker over ninety minutes


So far this season, there has been a vocal minority (what other type of minority is there?) who have felt it prudent to lay into Wilfried Bony both during matches and at any other juncture they can get their point heard. What good people expect to achieve by screaming obscenities at him while he's trying to score goals for us I don't know, but it's still happening. Even after he scored twice against Stoke, some fans were still reportedly giving him grief, and that to me is simply mind-boggling.

I've been thinking for a while that maybe there's an underlying reason he's coming in for stick. The only other striker who has received this level of criticism from Swansea fans in recent times was Jason Scotland, and let's be honest, he did well for us. Frustrations about him "not running around enough" were in my eyes laughable, and similar accusations are now being levelled at Bony.

Here's my thinking. I'm 27, and spent my formative years watching the Swans battle it out at various levels of lower league football - however we spent most of the time playing poor football with little quality up front. Let's have a look at some of the strikers I grew up watching. Steve Torpey, Aiden Newhouse, Tony Bird, Walter Boyd, Tommy Mutton, John Williams, Steve Watkin, Mamady Sidibe, Kevin Nugent... the list goes on, but it goes on without really inspiring. Giovanni Savarese was a cut above the rest, and Lee Trundle was obviously...Lee Trundle, but if we're being honest apart from those two none of the strikers in the list above were particularly likely to wow fans with their goalscoring exploits, much less put on a masterful display of centre-forwardery. 

We can look back further. Since the Swans fall from grace in the early eighties, it's likely to have been much of the same. I can't speak from experience as I wasn't alive/in a position to witness many of these seasons, however it seems unlikely we had a top-level striker plying his trade in the number 9 or 10 shirt. This all leads me to the conclusion that for a good twenty years (or thereabouts), fans will have been used to watching their strikers spend more time chasing lost causes into the corner than pulling a rabbit out of a hat and stuffing one in from 30 yards.

This is exemplified by the criticisms of Bony and Scotland before him. "Run around more", "get into him", "move about some more" - these are all things I regularly hear shouted from the stands but I disagree completely. I've stated my tactical reasoning before - we have one striker and if he did spend 90 minutes chasing shadows we wouldn't have a focal point to build off when we do regain possession. I'm pretty sure we didn't spend £12million on a striker only for him to "run around a lot".

My point is though that, myself included, it's unlikely many Swansea fans know what a top level striker looks like in the flesh for ninety minutes. Do they charge around like a bull in a china shop for the entirety of every match? No doubt some do, but I'd wager more operate like Bony - cerebral, and capable of doing nothing for large swathes of the game before popping up with some important goals.

I don't know what Robin Van Persie does for ninety minutes. I never saw Ruud Van Nistelrooy in the flesh. I've no idea what fat Ronaldo used to for most of the match, but I'd wager all had a habit of simply biding their time before their opportunity arose. By playing in this manner, it also allows them to retain extra energy to deploy as and when needed. No point shooting your load too early. Ahem. 

Let's have a look at Bony's stats. He's started thirteen games and come off the bench five times, and he now has ten goals. Not bad eh? When you take into consideration that, in the Premier League, he's now got a goal every 133 minutes (8th best of any player) it appears criticism has been unfounded. He's clearly still gaining a degree of match fitness, and is still adjusting to his new team, but his performances so far give reason for us to believe we could have signed an absolute gem. Don't forget he missed most of our pre-season too - AND had to adjust from what is a bit of a joke league to arguably the best league in the world. For him to have racked up this many goals (albeit, four of his ten have come in the Europa League) deserves credit in my opinion - not abuse from the stands.

Much like Wilfried Bony is adapting to a new style of playing, we as fans are still adapting to top level football. It's not our fault if we're not used to seeing an actual quality centre-forward - but the least we can do is give him the time he needs to succeed.

Wednesday, 2 October 2013

Laudrup: "Is Pozuelo left-footed or right-footed? We don't know yet!"

Swansea manager admits that Spanish youngster's technique is on another level to any other player in the squad


So far this season, I'd argue our two most impressive signings were both made from Real Betis. Stand up and be counted, Jose Antonio Canas & Alejandro Pozuelo. The former has proved to be as astute a signing as he is hirsute a man, putting in tireless performance after tireless performance as he beds in the Swansea squad seamlessly, while the latter has had slightly less time to impose himself.

Restricted to substitute appearances in the league, he's had to make do with starts in the League Cup and Europa League as he bids to showcase his skills, and from what we've seen so far there's reason to be positive we've signed an absolute gem. For a paltry £500k(rumoured) in compensation, we've signed a player who had been once linked with Manchester United & Barcelona (read a profile I put together a few months ago here: LINK), and despite seeming to lose his way at Betis it looks like he's set on taking British football by storm.

He announced himself immediately, scoring on his debut against Malmo with a really tasty strike - thanks to Youtube we can go all multimedia and relive it here - it's the fourth goal (at 2min 23secs) but I love watching Michu's opener - damn that boy is cool.




From what we've seen so far Pozuelo looks a very accomplished footballer indeed. His ability to create has caused havoc when he's been subbed on late in matches, and I look forward to seeing what he can do once he's completely bedded in to the squad - despite operating in an almost exclusively attacking role whenever he's featured he's got a pass completion rate of 87.8% - to me that seems very very high for a player who has blatantly been looking to create every time he's received the ball.

In his five PL sub appearances, he's played three "key balls" which led to opportunities for teammates, and in the Europa League he's already got two assists to add to that goal he got against Malmo, as well as getting another goal against Petrolul. Something else worth mentioning is he's registered as having made 1.4 tackles per appearance in the Premier League - not bad considering he's averaged just twenty-four minutes per showing and it's actually more than Michu's made so far (1.2), so perhaps he puts in more of a shift than I'd realised.

Personally, Pozuelo is the one signing of the summer I'm really excited about. I bloody love Jose Canas, and I think Wilfried Bony will score, as an Australian would say, "heaps" of goals, but the level of technique the man now simply known as "Alex" has shown he possesses is something akin to having Lee Trundle back at the Liberty. "All aboard the showboat", as it were.

Michael Laudrup clearly agrees we've acquired a real talent in Pozuelo:

"I think Alejandro can do here what Coutinho has done at Liverpool. I remember when Coutinho arrived. He came from Inter and he had a lot to learn, but now he is one of the most important players at Liverpool. 
"With time, Pozuelo can do the same here because he has the same ability with the ball. He can find space, he is good one-on-one and has two good feet — we don't know if he is right-footed or left-footed. He also has very good vision. 
"He has a lot of talent. He's a player that you can see is still young, but he has so much quality with two feet. We have to bring him forward and that's what we will do. He still has to learn a lot of things, but he is getting better and better when we don't have the ball.
"He's not that tall, but he's quite strong. He needs to learn to use his body better, but with a player like that who is only 22, we have to bring him forward slowly. Then he will be another very important player for us." 
Read more: http://www.thisissouthwales.co.uk/story-19873683-detail/story.html?#ixzz2gYIVvwQB 

With the Swans in Europa League action tomorrow night against Swiss side St Gallen, it's likely he'll once again get a chance to impress as the Swans go in search of a victory which would go a long way in securing progression to the next round of the competition. 

Alejandro Pozuelo 7/1 first goalscorer, you say...


Tuesday, 1 October 2013

Michu: Has he changed his game from last season? A statistical comparison

Do the stats back up what we've been witnessing?


Last season, I felt that at times with the inclusion of our floppy-haired flamenco-loving virtuoso at the head of a midfield three we actually lost something in terms of playing "The Swansea Way". I felt his ability to link play was somewhat limited, and although his goals obviously led us to a League Cup win as well as another improved league finish, there was sometimes a bit of a disjointed feel to our attack as Michu, Pablo, Dyer & Routledge all tried to adjust to each other's games. 

This year, we've been witnessing a much improved, more team focused Michu, and I've been wondering if the stats back up what I've been thinking in that he's become a much more effective link between midfield and attack. Luckily, I compiled a load of statistical data from last season so I can put together a fairly accurate comparison - although obviously it's early days yet in terms of how his "average per game" statistics pan out this season.

In the entirety of last season, Michu managed two assists in the league (and 18 goals, in case you'd forgotten). So far this season, whoscored.com are crediting him with one in the league, and when you consider he managed three further assists in the Europa League to date it seems he's definitely looking to play his team-mates in more often. Whether that's indicative of him receiving more support in the final third is up for debate, but to me it looks like he's been taking some advice from Laudrup, who made a career of unpicking defences with cute and/or outrageous passes. Evidence of this can be found in the match against Crystal Palace, where an exquisite turn was proceeded by a lovely through ball for Alvaro Vazquez, before he squared for Dyer to slot home.

He's playing the same amount of passes per game (32), while his pass completion is also slightly up on last season (79.7% - exactly 1% better than last year), and his shots per game has also remained at around the same level (3.0 as opposed to 3.1 last year). He is making less headers, though, winning two aerial duels per game as opposed to 3.3 per game last year. Defensively, they've got him listed as having made 1.2 tackles per game (1.3 last year) and 0.5 interceptions (0.9) this year, but it's not quite that clear cut as he's made 2.3 clearances a game so far this campaign, compared with only 1.1 last year. Those contrasting statistics tally nicely with how I see Michu's defensive game - a bit erratic, full of effort, but not always successful. 

His ball retention has also seen an improvement. Last year he gave the ball away on average 1.1 times per game, and that's marginally down to a nice round 1.0 now, but he's only been dispossessed 0.3 times per game this season as opposed to 0.9 times per game last season - considering we've played United, Liverpool & Arsenal at home, as well as Spurs away, that's not a bad average! He's also having a cheeky dribble more, averaging one per game as opposed to his meagre 0.2 per game average last season. 

I started putting this blog together confident that the stats would back up what I've been seeing with my own eyes, but I had started to become dubious it would indeed turn out like that. That is, until I found the "key passes" statistic. Last year he averaged one per game, but so far this season he's managed a whopping 2.5 - quite a marked improvement and seeing as last year's stat is an average based on a season's data, it's fair to take that as an indication of a change in how he's operating. Often, team's over-zealous marking of Michu allows others to find space, and it seems he's becoming increasingly aware of this and using it to Swansea's advantage. The slightly weird "through ball" statistic is up on last year too, with 0.5 per game showing a rise from 0.1 last year. That can't be right...

It seems that after a slightly shaky start the stats do indeed seem to indicate that Michu is operating in a much more creative manner, and that his fulfilment of the link-man role is vastly improved on last season. Long may it continue, as with a hectic schedule over the next few months we'll need the goals to be coming from other areas of the team, not just from the wizardly left-food of Miguel Michu. 


Tuesday, 3 September 2013

Swansea sign Alvaro Vazquez on loan: A statistical profile of our new signing

What do the numbers tell us about our new frontman?


Alvaro Vazquez scoring a hat-trick in the Copa Del Rey

I won't be alone in knowing next to nothing about Swansea's newest addition to the squad, but when it was announced that the Swans had secured Getafe's Alvaro Vazquez on loan for the season it brought a smile to my face - if only because it meant we wouldn't be signing Peter Odemwingie or David N'Gog. 

With that in mind I thought I'd turn to the internet to see what statistics I could dig up to hopefully give us some idea of what to expect. Given I'm yet to find a reliable source of information for previous season's statistics it's proved quite a struggle, but I've managed to put something together.

Alvaro (as he's normally more simply known) was born in Barcelona and was a product of the Espanyol youth system. He progressed into the first team by the age of 19 and his main claim to fame during his time there was scoring a hat-trick which saw him help his team through to the quarter finals of the Copa Del Rey.

In the summer of 2012 Getafe paid £2.6million for the striker who'd shown a lot of promise for the Spanish youth teams, and he's continued to feature for them - picking up a winners' medal in this summer's European U21 Championship. Despite being 22. You have to love football. 

If we're looking at recent stats, last season he featured 31 times (16 starts) and only scored 5 goals. In his breakthrough season he scored 4 goals, before grabbing five the season before last too, so at least he's consistent...

One area he does seem to have improved in is shooting accuracy. In his first season he managed 11 of 31 shots on target (35.48%), followed by 14 out of 39 (35.89%) the season after and 14 out of 30 (46.67%) last season. A steady improvement and getting almost half your shots on target isn't bad for a young striker. The lack of goals isn't encouraging but at least the boy knows where the goal is. Having said that, this season in his only appearance (as a 62nd minute substitute) he had three shots and none of them were on target. Stats, eh?

Given the frequency of his appearance as a substitute last season he averaged a goal every 288 minutes last year, which really is actually a lot more respectable than the stats suggest. For example, Michu averaged one every 167 minutes last year, so while it's not great it's definitely not that bad. Sadly, I've been unable to find any passing statistics for last season, but at around 6 foot tall we'll have to hope he's capable of holding the ball up and linking play when needed.

Let's hope we see him replicate some of the finishing in the video above, and that we get the most out of a player who Laudrup clearly rates. Beinvenido, Alvaro!

Thursday, 23 May 2013

Michu vs Lukaku - A statistical comparison

With Swansea rumoured to be looking to bring the Belgian striker to South Wales, how did he compare with Michu this season?


Romelu Lukaku. Age:20 Height: 6'3"
I'm still very skeptical regarding our prospects of landing Romelu Lukaku on loan next season. Ok, so certain things do add up; Lukaku himself has stated that he'd like to go out on loan next season again if he's not going to be regularly included in the Chelsea squad, but for the life of me I can't figure out why he wouldn't be. Europe's highest scoring teenager this term, it's remarkable to me that more attention isn't being paid to a player who finished the season by scoring a hat-trick against Manchester United.

It's possible that as the summer unfolds more clubs may come in for him, but with Chelsea looking set to appoint Jose Mourinho it's likely he'll fancy bringing in his own striker from elsewhere, so it may well be that Lukaku finds himself looking at another loan move. While West Brom do play a slightly more direct style of football than the Swans, looking at his performance this season against Michu's isn't that much of a squiff comparison as, for the second season running, the Swans finished the season in very close proximity to the Baggies. When you consider that Michu hit 18 goals to Lukaku's 17, it would seem to indicate that the team's around them also fared similarly.

Miguel Michu. Age: 27 Height: 6'1"
Michu made 35 starts in the league, and while Lukaku made the same number of appearances 15 of those were off the bench, so he's starting to look good already.  His pass completion is 72.1% (averaging 16.3 successful passes per game) to Michu's 78.7% (32 PPG), but in fairness to the Belgian he plays the same amount of key passes per game as Michu (1) and has four assists - double that of the Spaniard. They both average around three shots a game (Lukaku has 2.8 and Michu 3.1), but when you look at dribbles again the former Anderlecht man comes out on top, successfully going past his man 0.9 times a game to Michu's 0.2. In fairness to Michu, no-one is expecting him to go on a mazy dribble and beat five men...

Interestingly, when you look at defensive stats it seems Michu puts a shift in. The Spaniard makes 1.3 tackles per game to Lukaku's 0.2, and 0.9 interceptions per game to the Belgian's 0.1. That does result, however in Michu fouling his man more than twice as often - 1.4 times per game as opposed to Lukaku's 0.6, but a foul a game isn't that bad a thing. Keeps the defenders on their toes and all that. Michu also makes 1.1 clearances per game - again a much bigger number than the 0.3 managed by Lukaku - but to be honest I'm not that fussed on our striker tracking back and putting himself about. When you look at goals scored v minutes played, Lukaku has 17 goals in 2146 minutes while Michu has 18 in 3171 - the Spaniard has played around 50% more football so for the young Chelsea striker to have got 17 goals in a mid-table side is truly an impressive achievement. It works out that Lukaku has a goal every 126 minutes, while Michu has one every 176. 

It seems in every department (apart from defense, but we don't want him doing that) Lukaku really is a class act, and seeing as he only turned 20 ten days ago there is a whole load of room for improvement too. As has been stated, Europa League football could be the clincher but that's assuming no other club who've qualified for Europe come in for him, which seems a stretch of the imagination. That being said, the only other suitor being mooted at the moment is West Ham, which, as I mentioned yesterday, I don't think we have to worry about. Big Sam? Ha. 

All in all, a very impressive set of numbers from the Belgian. Obviously, you have to watch him play to know whether he'll fit the team but from everything I've seen of him he seems a class act, and what's more I've also heard he's tee-total and very much a good egg. Only Van Persie, Berbatov and Benteke had better "chance conversion rates" than Lukaku this season, who converted 21% of opportunities presented to him, and it's likely with increased game time and experience his level of performance will kick on again, and I for one would have no objection to that happening in South Wales.

Michu & Lukaku up front? Yes please. Sign him up!

Tuesday, 23 April 2013

Leon v Ki - A statistical comparison

Swansea stalwart Leon Britton
With yesterday's blog looking at how Ki and Jonathan De Guzman fare when their stats are compared, it seems only fair (and a few people have asked me) to look at how Leon comes out when all is said and done. With Ki seemingly being asked to play like Leon, it should be very interesting to see how this pans out. I'll throw JDG's stats in at the end for good measure too, for ease of comparison. 

It's Leon, so let's start with passes. Famously Europe's most accurate passer last season, he's so far found himself usurped in the pass completion department by his lanky South Korean counterpart. Leon has completed 91% of his passes (1359/1493) compared to Ki's 92.5% (1438/1554), and the Korean again comes out on top when you look at key passes, playing 1 a game compared to Leon's 0.3. I think we'd all agree that from what we've seen of Ki this season, his game is naturally more expansive than how Leon has played for the last few years, so this is likely an unsurprising statistic to most. That Ki plays on average 55.5 passes a game compared to Leon's 53.3, however, may surprise some given that Leon is still regarded as the central cog around which the Swansea team rotates, and when you consider Ki plays 5.8 successful long passes a game compared to Leon's 1.8, it seems that when it comes to shifting the ball on quickly (and accurately) the Korean is at least a match for the Swans' legend.

£5million man Ki Sung-Yueng
A look at defence now. While Leon is hardly a tough-tackler, Ki has been at the receiving end of criticism from fans for, ahem, deciding not to tackle (I promised to keep the language on this website child friendly...), so it's interesting to see that, even if this is true, they make almost an identical amount of tackles per game (Leon with 1.3 and Ki with 1.2), however Leon does come out on top when you look at interceptions, averaging 2.1 per game, edging towards double the 1.2 Ki manages, and also makes more blocks - stopping 0.5 shots a game to Ki's 0.3. Interestingly, Leon get's dribbled past almost once a game (0.8) whereas Ki is clearly a tougher man to get past, averaging exactly half that, and Ki also makes more clearances, with 1.3 to Leon's 0.8, and given that the defensive role is new to Ki I'm surprised at the level of criticism he's received for supposed defensive failings.

The similarities continue; both midfielders attempt 0.4 dribbles a game, are dispossessed once a game (ish - Leon is 0.8 and Ki 0.9) and draw one foul a game, however Leon actually gives away possession twice as often - 0.8 times per game as opposed to Ki's 0.4. There is definitely an element of splitting hairs going on here; I get the feeling that if I was to compare, say, the central midfielders at another mid-table club (West Brom, Fulham etc) the statistics would vary a lot more from player to player, although I'd imagine on the whole the attacking statistics would be a little more impressive. Ki has two assists while Leon has none, and while the 1.4 shots per game attempted by the Korean isn't a huge amount it dwarfs the 0.3 attempted by the diminutive Londoner. That neither have managed a goal this term is no surprise.

I'm not alone in expecting Leon to pass regardless of the goalscoring opportunity that's presented itself, and slightly tenuously it gives me a chance to stick a quality video in.. I'll never forget the Playoff Semi-Final - Leon received the ball from a short corner, nipped past Marcus Tudgay and let fly with his left foot, leaving Lee Camp with no chance and putting the Swans 1-0 up. Epic stuff, that, but the excitement was definitely heightened because not one Swansea fan would have expected Leon to shoot from there - the little man himself was probably as surprised as anyone to see the ball end up in the top corner! The noise in that video is special...




As suggested in yesterday's blog, I don't really see these two players as having to compete for the same place, even though there's likely to be increased competition next year (press reports indicate we've agreed to sign Jose Canas, who operates as a defensive midfielder). With two defensive berths in the midfield against "bigger" teams (ie. Leon & Canas) and a dedicated attacking midfielder ahead of them (Ki or De Guzman) it would give us more balance than we've had of late (I still don't like Michu at attacking midfield as I feel it disrupts the normal rhythm). Against "lesser" teams, the three wingers formation should work a treat with a bit more practice/player recruitment, and I like the idea that we'll have two variations to our midfield, with interchangeable personnel. That kind of dynamism and fluidity could prove crucial when/if the fixtures pile up due to continued European involvement, and Laudrup has previously stated he'd like to have two players for every position.

There is, of course, the possibility that Canas is being lined up as a replacement for Leon. Let's not think about that eh...

Full stats for Leon Britton, Jonathan De Guzman & Ki Sung-Yueng