Andrew McGlashan looks at why Swansea City aren't quite the rank outsiders for the FA Cup that some think...
Glancing through the internet today I couldn’t help but have a little peek at what odds Swansea were for the FA Cup. The best odds I could see were 35/1 but the majority of bookies have the Swans at around 30/1. Being a bit of an optimist when it comes to the Swans getting a result, I can’t help but see this as decent value.
Firstly, if you look at this season’s form, we have beaten United, Arsenal and Everton and should have got a result against Spurs. We gave Chelsea a run for their money at the Bridge and should have got a late equaliser against City at the Ethiad. There aren’t many teams that can say that this season. Needless to say, although Paul Merson says it seemingly every week (how is he employed as a pundit?!), on our day we can beat anyone and our win at Old Trafford last year in the Cup serves as the most fitting example of this.
Secondly, we have previous form. Our League Cup win in 2013 still burns bright in the memory and proves our ability to win a major trophy. Sceptics would say that having to play “only Bradford” in the final was the reason for this but I’d quickly refer them to our semi-final win over Chelsea. Two games against one of the best teams in Europe, two goals scored, none conceded and enduring a slight assault on a ball boy clearly illustrates our credentials for a cup run (and that Charlie Morgan, the oldest ever ball boy, knows how to mug off a footballer).
Finally, we love Wem-ber-ley and it seemingly loves us too. I’m not sure what it is about Wembley, maybe it’s the size of the pitch, or maybe we have players who rise to the occasion of a final, but we’ve played some of the best football in recent times on its hallowed turf. Should we get to the final this year, our recent experiences of playing total football in front of the world’s eyes will only hold us in good stead. Plus we have Kev Johns up our sleeve to rally the troops – what more could we need?! If you need reminding about this skip to the last part of Jack to a King – it gets me every time.
Now after these well argued points I wouldn’t be surprised if you are already logging in to a reputable online bookmaker to place a few quid on us to win the FA Cup. For those of you who are, Betfair were offering the best odds. But before you do, I have to balance out this optimism with some cold hard facts.
The FA Cup, or more specifically the people who draw the balls for each FA Cup draw, HATE us. In the past four seasons we have had 8 FA Cup ties. 7 of those have been away from home. Seven! The one home draw we did get in that time was Arsenal, which of course ended up going to a replay and we lost away at the Emirates. Go back further to the 2000/01 season and we’ve had 24 away draws and only 10 home draws (4 of which were in the 2003/04 season). This does mean however that we have the pretty impressive stat of only losing twice at home in the FA Cup since 2001.
It’s almost as if the FA is trying to guarantee it doesn’t have a Welsh winner of its beloved Cup by giving us so many away draws. Thankfully when Cardiff got to the FA Cup Final the FA knew they could just rely on Cardiff’s never failing ability to choke on the big stage rather than conjuring up only away fixtures.
Whilst I admit that Tranmere and Blackburn away aren’t exactly the toughest fixtures, a cheeky home draw now and again wouldn’t hurt would it? I can’t help but get the feeling that if we are to win the FA Cup this year, we will have to do it the hard way by playing away to the big boys.
So perhaps you would be better off placing that tenner you’ve saved during Dry January on Swansea to get drawn away in the next round (I see us beating Blackburn) rather than us adding the FA Cup to the trophy cabinet.
Still, 35-1 is good odds…
Thanks to Andrew for this latest piece. I've heard it mentioned elsewhere and it's something I agree with - why can't we go for the FA Cup this year?