Michu vs Lukaku - A statistical comparison

With Swansea rumoured to be looking to bring the Belgian striker to South Wales, how did he compare with Michu this season?

Romelu Lukaku. Age:20 Height: 6'3"

I'm still very skeptical regarding our prospects of landing Romelu Lukaku on loan next season. Ok, so certain things do add up; Lukaku himself has stated that he'd like to go out on loan next season again if he's not going to be regularly included in the Chelsea squad, but for the life of me I can't figure out why he wouldn't be. Europe's highest scoring teenager this term, it's remarkable to me that more attention isn't being paid to a player who finished the season by scoring a hat-trick against Manchester United.

It's possible that as the summer unfolds more clubs may come in for him, but with Chelsea looking set to appoint Jose Mourinho it's likely he'll fancy bringing in his own striker from elsewhere, so it may well be that Lukaku finds himself looking at another loan move. While West Brom do play a slightly more direct style of football than the Swans, looking at his performance this season against Michu's isn't that much of a squiff comparison as, for the second season running, the Swans finished the season in very close proximity to the Baggies. When you consider that Michu hit 18 goals to Lukaku's 17, it would seem to indicate that the team's around them also fared similarly.

Miguel Michu. Age: 27 Height: 6'1"

Michu made 35 starts in the league, and while Lukaku made the same number of appearances 15 of those were off the bench, so he's starting to look good already.  His pass completion is 72.1% (averaging 16.3 successful passes per game) to Michu's 78.7% (32 PPG), but in fairness to the Belgian he plays the same amount of key passes per game as Michu (1) and has four assists - double that of the Spaniard. They both average around three shots a game (Lukaku has 2.8 and Michu 3.1), but when you look at dribbles again the former Anderlecht man comes out on top, successfully going past his man 0.9 times a game to Michu's 0.2. In fairness to Michu, no-one is expecting him to go on a mazy dribble and beat five men...

Interestingly, when you look at defensive stats it seems Michu puts a shift in. The Spaniard makes 1.3 tackles per game to Lukaku's 0.2, and 0.9 interceptions per game to the Belgian's 0.1. That does result, however in Michu fouling his man more than twice as often - 1.4 times per game as opposed to Lukaku's 0.6, but a foul a game isn't that bad a thing. Keeps the defenders on their toes and all that. Michu also makes 1.1 clearances per game - again a much bigger number than the 0.3 managed by Lukaku - but to be honest I'm not that fussed on our striker tracking back and putting himself about. When you look at goals scored v minutes played, Lukaku has 17 goals in 2146 minutes while Michu has 18 in 3171 - the Spaniard has played around 50% more football so for the young Chelsea striker to have got 17 goals in a mid-table side is truly an impressive achievement. It works out that Lukaku has a goal every 126 minutes, while Michu has one every 176. 

It seems in every department (apart from defense, but we don't want him doing that) Lukaku really is a class act, and seeing as he only turned 20 ten days ago there is a whole load of room for improvement too. As has been stated, Europa League football could be the clincher but that's assuming no other club who've qualified for Europe come in for him, which seems a stretch of the imagination. That being said, the only other suitor being mooted at the moment is West Ham, which, as I mentioned yesterday, I don't think we have to worry about. Big Sam? Ha. 

All in all, a very impressive set of numbers from the Belgian. Obviously, you have to watch him play to know whether he'll fit the team but from everything I've seen of him he seems a class act, and what's more I've also heard he's tee-total and very much a good egg. Only Van Persie, Berbatov and Benteke had better "chance conversion rates" than Lukaku this season, who converted 21% of opportunities presented to him, and it's likely with increased game time and experience his level of performance will kick on again, and I for one would have no objection to that happening in South Wales.

Michu & Lukaku up front? Yes please. Sign him up!

West Bromwich Albion v Swansea City Match Preview

                         

                 

W.B.A vs Swansea City

Barclays Premier League

Saturday 09/03/13

15:00pm K.O.

The Hawthorns

Referee: Lee Mason

Match Preview, Statistics & Analysis

West Brom come into this game looking like they may have turned a corner, despite their most recent result being a 1-0 loss at Chelsea. Losing at Stamford Bridge is, for clubs like WBA and the Swans, something which is, despite managers undoubtedly claiming otherwise, expected if the Londoners are on their game. Recent results include an excellent 2-0 win away at Liverpool, a 2-1 home win over Sunderland and a narrow 1-0 home loss to Spurs. If the Baggies can secure three points here it'll make it three wins from four, and they will be no doubt be able to draw confidence from recent results as the season starts to build to what will inevitably be the usual tumultuous finish.

Michu. Swervy. 

Swansea head into the match looking to pick up there they left off at the Liberty the last time these sides met. The pre-Wembley hammering at Anfield and a 1-0 away reverse at West Ham are the only real blips in what has otherwise been an impressive couple of weeks for the Swans. Goals had seemed to be becoming an issue, but they seem to be flowing freely again after some impressive bludgeoning of first QPR, and then, famously, Bradford in the Capital One Cup Final. The Swans are looking to put back to back wins together for the first time since early December, and will no doubt be aware that victory will mean they'll have "done the double" over the Baggies two seasons in a row. Swansea are still struggling away from home however, with no wins, or even goals, coming in the last four matches away from Fortress Liberty.

Prior Form

Premier League Chelsea 1-0 West Brom
Premier League West Brom  2-1 Sunderland                
Premier League Liverpool     0-2 West Brom                 
Premier League West Brom 0-1 Tottenham                
Premier League             Everton        2-1 West Brom                


Premier League             Swansea     1-0 Newcastle                      
League Cup Final           Bradford     0-5 Swansea                       
Premier League             Liverpool     5-0 Swansea                      
Premier League             Swansea     4-1 QPR                              
Premier League             West Ham   1-0 Swansea                      




Odds: WBA 6-5, Swansea 11-5, Draw 12-5

Team News

Goran Popov. Classy guy. 

West Bromwich Albion have Goran Popov available again following his three match ban for spitting at an opponent. Nice. Lukaku is the obvious threat, and he'll be raring to go after missing the Chelsea game due to being ineligible to play against his parent club. Chris Brunt should also return, and his burgeoning understanding with Lukaku could well prove critical if his radar is functioning. Shane Long, however, looks set to miss out as he's still struggling with an ankle problem.

Swansea will again have to do without Chico Flores as he continues his rehabilitation from an ankle injury suffered after what looked, to me, an unnecessarily physical challenge in the 4-1 victory over QPR. Garry Monk is, according to reports, again likely to figure so you wonder what role Kyle Bartley has to play for the rest of the season. Neil Taylor has stepped up his recovery and is now in full training, however this game comes too soon for him. Kemy Augustien is again out, this time with a thigh injury, and I can honestly say that I can't think of a player more prone to injury than the Dutchman. It remains to be seen whether he'll do enough to warrant an extension on his contract, which I believe is up this summer?

Trivia - "Courtesy" of Opta, the BBC and various other sites;

• West Brom have never lost four successive games against Swansea City.

• Albion have lost six of their last nine league games, earning only seven points during that period.
• The Baggies have 40 points from 28 games - their highest in PL history at this point in the season. 
• WBA are yet to have an English goalscorer this season. Only Fulham (twice!) have gone an entire season without an English goalscorer. 
• Young Isaiah Brown could, at 16 years and 61 days, become the youngest ever Premier League footballer. He would, however, only be WBA's second youngest debutant (Frank Hodgetts was 16 years & 26 days v Notts County in 1940)

• WBA have only once had more points at this stage of a top-flight season, in 1981-82. They finished sixth that season.
• Michael Laudrup's side have failed to win, or score, in four successive away matches in the league (D2, L2).
• The Swans have only dropped two points from leading positions this season, the best record in the division.
• Michu has only scored in one of his last eight league appearances, bagging two against QPR.

Completely guessed lineups

West Bromwich Albion

 Foster

Reid                Olsson (C)         McAuley         Ridgewell

Yacob          Mulumbu

Morrison                 Dorrans             Brunt(C)

  Lukaku

   Michu

Hernandez              Routledge               Dyer

Britton             De Guzman

Davies            Williams(C)   Monk        Rangel

   Vorm

   Swansea City

Analysis

This game has the potential to be a high scoring affair I feel, despite the Swans recent lack of goals away from home. West Brom started the season in absolutely incredible form, before results started to fall away. As the stats above show, six losses in the last nine games is far from the WBA side that seemed to announce bold intentions earlier in the campaign, however recent good results mean that they've arrested their slide down the table, although they now find themselves behind Swansea on goal difference.

The return of Lukaku cannot be underestimated: the Belgian frontman is an imperious, combative threat who will no doubt give Ashley Williams and co a hard time as he looks to get his name on the scoresheet. As Liam Ridgewell said, the Baggies are motivated for this game as being beaten in four consecutive matches by a newly promoted side is clearly not something that sits well with established Premier League players. Steve Clarke has been effusive in his praise for Swansea but for all his kind words, he will no doubt be expecting his side to recover three points.

"We went down there this season, on the back of four wins, and for 30 minutes, it's the best any team has played against us. It is probably one of the best 30 minutes I've seen from a team in the Premier League for a number of years. I thought they were outstanding that night and we got a bit of a tonking. We look forward to the chance to try and put a few things right on Saturday. 

"We will be looking at different things and ideas and hope we can find a way that is a bit different to how we've played against them before." Steve Clarke

If this game was to be played in SA1 then I'd say those comments would indicate Steve Clarke is prepared to park the bus in an attempt to frustrate the Swans, but given that they're the home side that's unlikely. There are a number of possibilities as to ways you can get at  the Swans, and in the past sides have tried man-marking Leon Britton, as well as bypassing the Swansea midfield completely by playing mostly long passes. So far this season Chris Brunt has attempted fifty crosses, which when you compare that with the 34 that Dyer and Routledge have managed (combined) all season, would indicate that on any given day WBA are a much more direct team than the Swans. Obviously, they have the aerial threat of Lukaku up top, which isn't to be underplayed, however the Swans have dealt with direct football effectively for a while now and the notion that he'll spend most of the afternoon "clearing out" is likely to actually draw a smile from Ashley Williams. The Swans centre-back has made 36 blocks this season, and has been unerring in his willingness to put his body on the line in an effort to protect the Swansea goal.

Mark Lawrenson has predicted a 2-1 WBA win, but I'm not so sure he's right. The other day I saw an image of what the Premier League would look like if Lawrenson's predictions were all spot on, and in googling the image I also stumbled upon the final table made up of his predictions from last year.

As you can see from his table last year, despite the Swans continued good form Lawro still didn't fancy the Swans. This man gets paid to talk about football all day, it's quite remarkable really.You'd have thought given our good start to the season, he'd have learned his lesson.

Nope. Do you think he actually plans this stuff? QPR 6th? Earning your corn there, Lawro!










After criticism from some quarters for my generally ill-fated predictions (the word curse has been mentioned) I'm loathe to predict a Swans win, however I'm not so sure that would be the case anyway. No team likes being beaten repeatedly by the same opponent, especially so when the team in question aren't one of the super-powers of the British game, and the West Brom players will be fired up for this, and I don't see either team keeping clean sheets. For no logical reason, I'm going to say 2-2, and I fancy Ashley Williams for a goal.

I wonder what odds you can get on that...

Iechyd Da.

Liam Ridgewell says WBA are out for revenge, and Laudrup reveals he's planning for the summer already.

Ridgewell admits WBA were stung by excellent Swansea showing last time out.

Liam Ridgewell. Running Man. 

For a Swansea City fan, the West Brom game earlier in the season stands out in the memory as one of the best Swansea performances witnessed in recent times - if not ever. So much so, in fact, that the entire first forty-five minutes remain available on the SwansPlayer for your delectation. Sadly I wasn't able to attend the match, but I've heard from those who did (as well as watching that first half at least three times) that it really was a joy to behold. Baggies defender Ridgewell states that the West Brom players were disappointed to be humbled in such a manner, and are looking to the reverse fixture as one from which they can recover three points, and in doing so leapfrog the Swans, who are currently ahead of the Midlanders on goal difference.

Liam Ridgewell: "Swansea was disappointing for all of us. We're at home, we need to get three points to push us back up the league. We feel we could have got something out of our game at Chelsea and the boys are upbeat."

A quick look at the stats from the Chelsea v West Brom game, and Chelsea's 19 shots on target seem to indicate that they were well worthy of the three points, and the highlights online would lean towards agreeing with that verdict. West Brom were, however, without Romelu Lukaku - on loan from Chelsea and unable to play against his parent club. Lukaku has been, for me, a revelation this season - his hard running and physicality matched by his nous in and around the area, and it seems strange that given Chelsea's struggles under Benitez the Belgian international hasn't been recalled. His goals have been integral in West Brom maintaining their mid-table status, and he'll be a big loss when he moves on at the end of the season.

Swansea will have to guard against Lukaku - Ashley Williams will be, as always, up for any kind of physical battle presented to him, but it remains to be seen if Chico's ankle has recovered sufficiently for him to play some part. It seems unlikely given the nature of the injury, and given that he missed the cup final and subsequently the Newcastle game, it's more than possible Kyle Bartley will be drafted in to partner Ash, in an attempt to diminish the physical threat posed by Lukaku. The Congo-born Belgian will be fully rested given his ineligibility on Monday night, and will be looking to make his mark in front of a home crowd who will, no doubt, be expecting nothing less than victory.

Laudrup still undecided on who will be deemed "surplus to requirements" this summer.

Michael Laudrup was discussing more immediate matters (the upcoming matches against, amongst others, the current top 5 clubs in the Premier League) when he was questioned with regards to his plans for player retention this summer. While most Swans fans could probably guess a few of the names likely to depart, there are others who will split opinion, and with Laudrup keen to further stamp his identity on this Swansea squad it's possible there may be a few departures which will raise an eyebrow or two. Laudrup's desire for a much smaller squad may result in some clear-cutting this summer. To replace current fringe squad members with quality additions, while still keeping the squad small, will mean a sizable number of players moving on, and it seems the European Cup winner has already given plenty of thought into who he wants to retain for the coming season:

“I don’t want to go into individual things right now. Already we are thinking about next season and players to sign, but we are leaving something open to the players who are here so I don’t want to go into names and positions. I know more or less for next season, but there are still 10 games to go so it is not the correct moment to say ‘he will stay, he will leave’ and so on. 

“I think we give everyone a possibility from now on. But you cannot start working on 20th May after the last game. So when people get a possibility they have to grab it and Luke is an example. He came in on Saturday, got 15 minutes and scored a goal.” Michael Laudrup

It remains to be seen who Laudrup is talking about - Luke Moore has scored some important goals but few would argue those goals alone are worthy of a renewed contract - not at Premiership levels anyway. There are a lot of players who haven't come near the first team (Situ, Gower, Tate, Donnelly, Lucas) and either they need to be given a go, or they need to move on. Possibly harsh in the cases of Lucas and, especially, Donnelly, and I wouldn't expect the Northern Irishman to move on so soon, however if we're going to go with a number of youth players in our squad then the remaining senior players need to all be capable of competing for a place in the first XI. While no-one is doubting Mark Gower's contribution to the Swans over the last few years, or his contributions in training, no PL appearances this season indicate he's unlikely to be given a renewed deal; and if he hasn't been sounded out about a non-footballing role one suspects he'll be asked to move on.

Alan Tate is another player who, it really pains me to say, is unlikely to get any game time under Laudrup. Tate spent time on loan at Leeds, and he, along with Laudrup, was expecting to remain there until the end of the season - however financial problems at Leeds meant that the ex-Man Utd youngster's loan deal was only extended by one month, before he returned home to Swansea. Speaking realistically, it's unlikely Tate will force his way into the first-team reckoning, so again, unless he's been asked about a non-footballing role he'll surely be moving on.

Another story that refuses to go away is "Laudrup to <insert big club here>" at the end of the season. Now, given Swansea's history of managers being lured away, and Laudrup's links with, amongst other clubs, Real Madrid, it might seem strange I'm confident he'll stay beyond this summer. He's stated time and time again that he doesn't really plan that far ahead, and that where he'll be next year isn't an immediate concern, yet the media refuse to let the issue drop. One interesting soundbite to come from recent queries, though, is that Laudrup feels new assistant (new to Swansea anyway) Morten Wieghorst is more than capable of taking the reigns at the Swans.

Michael Laudrup - speaking with Wales Online: "I certainly believe he can be manager here. He has experience from Scottish football and is familiar with (English football). He has shown ability in Denmark, both with FC Nordsjaelland and the under-21 national team.”

 All well and good Michael, but stick around for another year to show him the ropes eh?