Swansea only need 35 points to avoid relegation

With the bottom half of the table so tight, an unusually low points total could be enough to see the Swans (and others) to safety

With the Premier League now over twenty years old, there are certain things which have become ingrained in the collective consciences of football fans. No matter how many teams seem liable to vie for the Champions League spots it seems we always see talk of a "Big Four", no matter how much money they spend it seems pointless backing Spurs for the Champions League, and any team that gets to the fourty point mark is safe from relegation. 

How much truth is there in these accepted pieces of football wisdom though? As for the two former, well to be honest it doesn't really effect us so let's look at the latter. Do we need fourty points to stay up this season? 

A quick recap of the season so far would seem to suggest not. With the bottom half of the table as congested as at any time in recent memory points really have been at a premium this season, and it seems the disparity between the "elite" clubs and everyone else is growing. With most clubs having around ten games left to play and eleven clubs on thirty-one points or less, it's distinctly possible that this season we could stay up with a much lower points tally than is traditionally needed. 

Key to how things pan out between now and the end of the season is the fixture list. Who has the tougher run in? Let's have a look.

*games yet to be arranged

As you can see, I've been busy! Now, I know there is absolutely no science behind me doing predictions in that manner and I'd agree that given how many variables are in play it's almost a futile exercise, but in truth I did it more to get a feel of if anyone had a particularly hard run-in - and by my reckoning Norwich clearly have the most grueling. Their last four games are Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea & Arsenal - at that stage in the season those are not teams you want to see on your fixture list.

I was rooting around online and I came across this graphic on the Football365 website, calculating a final table based on clubs' performance so far this season:

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/runin.html

Maybe there is something in my predictions after all! They have the same three teams to go down as me, though they think they'll get a couple more points than I've given them credit for. Who's right? Well, to be honest it doesn't really make much difference, as the reason I was looking at this is to try and work out how many points we'll need to stay up - and even if we go with Football365's higher total it's still a paltry thirty-four points - possibly even thirty-three! 

Given you're supposed to need fourty points to stay up, potentially doing so whilst winning two games less than usual points to just how many more points the big teams are taking off their "lesser" rivals, and how much tighter things have been this season. If either of these predictions are correct, the Swans only need to win two games between now and the end of the season to stay up - and with West Brom, Norwich & Aston Villa all to come to the Liberty you feel that our Premier League fate is firmly in our own hands.

It remains to be seen who'll occupy the three relegation spaces come the end of the season, but if we can secure anything over thirty-five points I'm fairly certain that'll be enough for us to avoid relegation.

Fairly certain...

Goalkeeping comparison - who wins more games?

Which of Swansea's goalkeepers has the higher win percentage?

Following on from yesterday's blog, (looking at the Swans' win percentage with & without Leon in the team) another suggestion from the same tweet asked if I could look at Swansea's goalkeepers, and whether there was anything to be noted by comparing their win/loss statistics. 

It seemed an interesting exercise, and seeing as the only news kicking around is tenuous links with Jefferson Montero - AKA "Jeff" - it made sense to get cracking and have a look. For ease of analysis I put a table together (below) - have a look, it makes for interesting reading!

As you can see, in the first season our overall league performance echoed Vorm's (given his almost constant presence), but the statistics do seem to back up what many fans - myself included - were saying last season, that at the time Tremmel seemed to offer a safer pair of hands. There was never any doubting that Vorm was a superior goalkeeper but as well as seeing us through our Capital One Cup run Tremmel excelled in the league when called upon.

That's why this season is such a mystery. What's happened Gerry? One win in eleven games? Ouch. I'd love to be able to say that these nasty statistics were simply down to poor team performances, but I do remember numerous occasions where I thought the goal conceded was a bit soft from a goalkeeping point of view. It's far from being exclusively his fault, and he has been unlucky on a number of occasions - I've lost count of the amount of times Ash seems to have deflected the ball past our keeper this season - but you live and die by the sword and you can't argue when the final whistle blows. 

In the overall statistics Tremmel does fare better, but that's largely due to our Capital One Cup run last season. Five league wins in twenty four outings across three seasons is far more telling, compared with twenty-five in seventy-nine for Vorm. I know who I prefer between the sticks right now. 

It seems after enjoying a purple patch last season Tremmel's form has faded, and it's been echoed in the results. This season in all competitions Tremmel has won four of twenty-one games, whereas Vorm was won nine of twenty-two. A quite staggering difference given how the German has performed in the past, and a bigger disparity than I'd ever have anticipated. What's more, he's lost twelve games this season to Vorm's six. Quite remarkable that he's lost double the amount of games and won less than half the amount managed by his Dutch teammate. 

I'm sure the Swans' analysis team are aware that we've only won once with Gerhard between the sticks this season, though what they make of these types of statistics we can't say. What I can say though, is that I've got my fingers crossed nothing happens to Michel Vorm between now and the end of the season.

Loan watch: How do Ki's stats compare to the Swansea midfield's this season?

With our "Korean David Beckham" on loan at the Wearsiders, how has he been getting on?

I recently put together an article looking at how each of Swansea's central midfielders compares to the others statistically (link), and with Ki's loan spell drawing to a close and speculation surrounding his future I thought an interesting exercise would be to see how his statistics from his spell at Sunderland compare with Leon, Jose, Jonathan De Guzman & Jonjo Shelvey. 

Swansea's four midfielders so far this season (as of 25-02-14)

Ki's stats so far this season (as of 07-03-14)

As you can see his pass accuracy exceeds that of any of the Swansea midfielders, though he plays significantly fewer passes per game than all bar Jonjo. He loses possession as rarely as Swansea's safest feet - those of Jose Canas, but is dispossessed about as often as Jonathan De Guzman - who's mugged more often than any of the Swansea midfielders. This probably reflects the role Ki is playing for Sunderland - it's a kind of cross between the defensive and attacking midfield roles at the Swans - so while he's not necessarily getting assists and goals aplenty he's clearly imposing himself on games.

Defensively too he's faring pretty well when compared with Swansea's midfield, making 1.9 tackles per game which is as good as Leon (and better than any of the others), but he is only making 0.8 interceptions per game, on a par with Jonjo who nabs the ball less than any of his teammates. I think when you look at Ki's stats from last year (table below) you can clearly see he's being asked to play a more advanced role at Sunderland as his turnovers (losing the ball through poor control etc) have doubled to 0.8 while he's dispossessed over 50% more often (1.3 up from 0.8 times per game). 

The former could well be attributed to playing the ball in more advanced areas with numerous defenders in close proximity, while again for the latter if you're trying to take people on you're liable to be mugged more often. This is again demonstrated in the statistics, with Ki attempting one dribble per game - more than any of the Swansea midfield.

Swansea's midfield stats as of April 2012/13

The thing that's really impressive is the passing accuracy. It's no mean feat having an average pass accuracy higher than Leon Britton's, and to do that when you're clearly playing a more traditional central midfield role is very, very impressive. To me that just serves to emphasise why he should be brought back into the fold for next season. With De Guzman very liable to secure a bumper contract elsewhere off the back of the World Cup we'll be down one midfielder, and Monk's switch back to two deep midfielders - one of whom "goes" - should suit the Korean down to the ground. 

Overall it's pretty impressive stuff from the Korean, and I for one am very keen to see him pull on a Swansea shirt again. From a cold-hearted financial point of view too it makes great sense - the interest we saw from South Korea was mad but has completely disappeared since his departure - so if we can get a great midfielder who already knows how we play who doubles up as a cash cow that seems to make a lot of sense to me. 

Let's just hope he's not become too attached to Sunderland and it's fans, and that he fancies having another crack at life in SA1. I've got everything crossed that he comes back for another stint, and I'm sure I'm not alone. 

Swansea's injury woes examined

The Domino Effect of Swansea Injuries 

This article by Dan Barnett was originally posted on his website at the end of January, but I felt it was well worth including as it's a fascinating read. The original article is available here.

With 3 points against Fulham and the return of several players from injury, things are suddenly a lot rosier. It was less than a few weeks ago that Swansea were top of the Phsyioroom Injury table with 8 first team players out, and what's more most of them would arguably be included in Swansea's strongest line-up.

Much has been made of the demands of the Europa League and the impact of extra games and travel on Swansea's league position; it's purely speculation and maybe a bit biased but I'd argue that our level would be closer to that of Southampton without the extra games (Swansea have played 10 Europa League games but 2 fewer matches in the League Cup compared to Southampton).

As at end of Jan 2014, Swansea have already played 36 competitive matches (23 League, 10 Europa League, 2 FA Cup and 1 League Cup) with late Nov until early Jan being particularly busy with the absence of any international breaks and 2 games a week for 5 of the 6 weeks.

Swansea Minutes Played per week - All Competitions

The heavier than normal schedule, combined with a couple of key injuries, resulted in a domino effect of injuries within the Swansea squad, with the available pool of players diminishing rapidly. Those that remained were required to play when ideally they would have been rested - resulting in Leon Britton being the only fit midfielder of the 4 main squad members with Shelvey, Canas and De Guzman all being injured at the same time.

The chain arguably starts with Bony having a succession of injuries early on in the season, where he picked up an ankle/foot injury (Aug 25th) followed by a rib injury (Sep 15th). These, combined with a lack of a full pre-season and then suffering a hamstring injury in a Europa League game on Nov 28th meant that earlier this season he missed quite a bit of game time..

Bony - Minutes played per week.

After a stop-start beginning to the season, Bony is now starting to play on a regular basis and is in great form, but his absence in the early months of the season arguably placed extra pressure on Michu.

In has time with Swansea, due to his importance to the team Michu has very
rarely been substituted and has played despite not being fully fit this season -
resulting in problems with both ankles. Playing time above excludes his 57
minutes for Spain in mid October.

With injuries at various points to Bony and Michu, this placed extra pressure on the midfield, where some games you would only have needed 2 of the 4 central midfielders (if both Bony and Michu starting), and so with one or both being unavailable there have been more games three central midfielders would be required (with Pozuelo also contributing to the attacking midfield role at times).

The reasoning that some games you'd need 2 and others 3 of the central midfielders was why Ki was loaned out to Sunderland as unless there was a run on injuries he'd get very little game time (I know there are other conspiracy theories around his relationship with Laudrup but apart from the issue of helping a potential relegation rival, Ki is better of this season at Sunderland).

The gradual build up of injuries meant that instead of a regular rotation that happened earlier on in the season, Shelvey and Canas in particular were called on even more during the Nov/Dec period which may well have had an impact on their fitness.

Shelvey has possibly been Swansea's player of the season so far but a heavy
 schedule in recent weeks had arguably knackered him out to some extent.

As with Shelvey, Canas has gone from playing equivalent of around 1 game per 

week to regularly playing 2 games a week.

As well as the problems up front and in midfield, injuries to Dyer, Lamah and Pablo meant that this area was also stretched. Pablo has gained a reputation this season as being 'made of glass' but last season was an almost ever-present - maybe he's been pushed backed too quickly this season, only to relapse?

Playing 2 matches in a week might not seem the greatest hardship in the world,
but going from nothing to multiple games may be too much of a rush for some
players.

If players were parts of a machine instead of human then it would make sense to have had Ki around all season to be used in an emergency, but in reality an unhappy player can disrupt the squad not to mention do nothing for their potential resale value if they do look to move on.

Over the season so far Chico has played by far the most minutes (Williams was often rested in Europa League games partly due to a niggling ankle injury but also to give Amat experience).

Chico has played 2745 minutes this season, 489 minutes more than Ashley Williams in 2nd.

Pozuelo has featured in the most games this season (34 of the 36) although only 19 of those have been starts.

Pozuelo's been regularly involved, if not as heavily as some but played an
important role in keeping things going during late November/early December.

Any patterns of injury will be a matter of training, match volume and luck (no matter how fit or how sensible your playing schedule, impact injuries can just be split second collisions that cause long term injury), and it's easy to look back when there's been a run of injuries and say that x or y caused them - but it's a fine line between a well oiled machine running at optimum levels, and having to end up playing a defender in midfield. Small decisions can end up having far larger repercussions.

Dan runs his own site at www.wearepremierleague.com, and you can follow him on Twitter @We_R_PL

*All statistics correct as of 31/01/14

Swansea's midfield examined: A statistical comparison

Do the numbers match fans' perceptions?

When I first started this website back in February last year, I did so with the intention of putting together lots and lots of statistic-based articles which would hopefully shed some light on tactical issues, as well as providing people with something a bit different to read. Of late though, I've been slack - partly due to work commitments eating into time I would otherwise have put to use researching articles, and partly because Dan over at www.wearepremierleague.com does a much better (and more thorough) job of it.

That's not going to stop me though. I haven't been lost in numbers for some time now, and if I'm being honest I miss it, so it was with this partly in mind that I thought I'd put together a blog looking at how our central midfielders compare statistically. I actually did a couple of similar pieces last April looking at Leon, Ki & De Guzman (links here and here), so it'll be interesting to see how our changes in playing style have been reflected in terms of raw data when compared with last year's statistics.

Without further ado then, let's get into it. Last season, our central midfield consisted primarily of Jonathan De Guzman, Leon Britton & Ki Sung-Yueng, who were essentially vying for two spots given Michu's preference for playing behind the frontman (who for a good swathe of the season was Danny Graham). This season we've seen Ki loaned out, leaving De Guzman & Leon with new signings Jose Canas & Jonjo Shelvey for company in the centre of the park. Michu played a couple of games up top early this season and has since missed out a lot through injury, so I'm going to concentrate on the four we'd consider "central midfielders".

Let's start with passing. We do like a pass in SA1 don't we? Leon & Jono's pass completion is pretty much the same as last year, Leon's down a percent or so to 90.7% and De Guzman's marginally better than last season's at 89.6%. The two newcomers to the team this year figure pretty much as you'd expect - Canas's is almost identical to Leon's at 90.6% with Shelvey a little lower at 84.1%. Given he enjoys more of an attacking role that's to be expected, and he also has the least average passes per game with 52.2, with De Guzman averaging 60.3, Canas 61.4 and Leon 64.8. He was always going to have the most wasn't he? Interestingly when compared with last year's Leon and De Guzman are actually playing about ten more passes per game - a sign of how much we've been retaining possession this year even if on occasion we've struggled to do anything with it.

That takes us neatly to chance creation. While you'd expect Canas and Leon to boss the passing charts, you'd probably fancy Shelvey & De Guzman to come out on top when it comes to passes in the final third, and it works out fairly predictably. Leon plays 0.3 key passes per game, Canas 0.1 (ouch). but Shelvey manages 1.3 De Guzman 1.8. Goals and assists are also an area you'd expect there to be a disparity, and you'd be right - Canas and Leon have no goals and assists between them. Shelvey, however, now has five goals and three assists while his Dutch teammate has one goal and four assists. You don't score without shooting, and that's neatly reflected in the stats too - Jonjo has 2.3 shots per game, Jono 1.6, while Leon & Canas come in at 0.3 and 0.1. 

In terms of ball retention, again what most fans would have suspected is reflected in the raw data. Leon & Jose Canas are both dispossessed 0.7 times per game, but De Guzman is over double that at 1.5. Jonjo comes in with a nice round figure of once per game, and that's impressive given how often he tries to beat his man. As for losing the ball through poor control it's fairly even between Jose (0.8 - and better than Leon!), Leon (0.9) and Jonjo (1.0) but again De Guzman comes across a little loose, gifting possession on average 1.5 times per game. Still an impressively low figure, mind.

Defensively, Jose & Leon boss the tackle stats and given for the majority of the season only one of them has been selected, that means the other central midfielder hasn't really been gaining possession back that much. Leon averages 1.9 tackles, Canas 1.8 while De Guzman comes in at 1.3, Shelvey 1.1. I guess they are up the field a lot more, but we're already seeing the benefits of playing with two defensive midfielders so I expect the midfield stats to tighten up a lot in the near future. Interceptions too is another area with a disparity  - Leon averages 1.9, Canas 2.1, but Jonjo and De Guzman only make 0.8 & 0.9 respectively. 

If I'm being hones there isn't as much to read into these statistics as I thought there would be. I've been critical of Jonathan De Guzman in the past for sloppy play but the statistics simply don't relay that - more often that not he retains possession when passing, even if he is mugged more occasionally than any of our other midfielders. I do feel though, that as I said in the Liverpool review if he is willing to run until it hurts, he could be some player. I struggle to recall too many times where I've seen him busting a gut to get forward in particular, whereas all the other players we've looked at here can never be accused of not putting in a shift.

What is interesting to me is we're obviously playing more passes on average. Given the increase in calibre of the squad if Monk can get the team playing the same football we were at the end of Rodgers' tenure/the beginning of Laudrup's then it's automatically going to be football of a higher standard given the players on the field are capable of that much more. 

It's good to see Monk appreciates how important it is to control the centre of the midfield, and if the next year goes as his first few games in charge have I'd expect the passing stats to be even more impressive if we were to look at them again next February. Whether De Guzman is still here then remains to be seen as his second loan deal expires in the summer, but despite how often I get frustrated with him there's clearly a quality footballer in there somewhere and I'd love for him to kick on at the Swans.

Canas is someone else I'd like to give a mention as he's bedded into the side so well. Since signing from Betis he's looked every bit a Swansea City midfielder, but it's infuriating we've had to wait this long to see him paired with Leon Britton regularly when the possibility of such a great partnership was just so obvious. The Spaniard has taken to life in SA1 like a duck to water and I'm expecting a great second season from him, as he continues to settle in and his English improves. 

Overall, this just shows that if you put statistics in context you can in fact infer a fair amount from them. There are useless statistics, sure, and there are statistics taken completely out of context, but if you compare these statistics with your average Swansea fan's opinion of the four midfielders we've looked at it's likely they'd come to the same conclusions. For me, the foreseeable future should include Leon & Canas at defensive midfield with one of De Guzman, Shelvey, Michu, Pablo or Pozuelo ahead of them. Get Ki back in the summer and we're covered at defensive midfield, and then it's simply a case of figuring out who's better ahead of them. 

It should be fun finding out!

Below are the stats I've collated from www.whoscored.com for this article, as well as statistics from April last year (bottom) for ease of comparison. 

Stoke v Swansea - Preview, team news, predicted lineups, statistics, prior form & analysis

The Match

Stoke must have been wondering what happened to all the positivity that surrounded the first few weeks of their season, as they've become embroiled (along with many others) in this season's epic battle against relegation. Of late though, there have been a few rays of light at the Brittania Stadium and a credible draw at Southampton, preceded by a home win over Man Utd (although everyone seems to take points off United these days) mean they're likely to be in a confident mood when Garry Monk's Swansea City roll into town. Charlie Adam, as much as I hate him, has been on fire of late and Peter Odemwingie looks a tidy addition, so they'll no doubt be looking to get in the Swans faces early on and dictate the pace of the game.

Swansea will no doubt be massively buoyed by their fantastic derby win over Cardiff, and more important than the result for me was the way the team played - of late, I've worried the name of this website was becoming slightly ironic so I've got a lot to thank Garry Monk for. The way we played against our bitter rivals showed that Monk understands what's needed to get this Swansea team picking up results again, and if we can recreate the performance of Saturday away at Stoke we've every chance of securing a positive result.

Prior Form (Most recent at top)

Team News

Provided by resident fitness guru @BenDinnery - make sure to follow him on Twitter for the latest injury news and views

Stoke welcome back Marc Wilson who missed the draw at Southampton due to illness but Mark Hughes will hand a late fitness test to attacking players Mark Arnautovic (ankle) and winger Oussama Assaidi (hamstring). Andy Wilkinson (heel) and Matthew Etherington (calf) have recovered from their recent injury problems but are unlikely to be involved; both players are lacking match-fitness. Central defender Robert Huth is a definite absentee, the big German is recovering from knee surgery.

Swansea travel to the Britannia Stadium in high spirits following the South Wales’ derby victory and acting manager Garry Monk will be buoyed not only by the result but by the number of first team squad members returning to full fitness. Saturday marked the first appearance since December for goal-keeper Michel Vorm while Jose Canas managed a little over 20 minutes following his recent ankle injury; tomorrow should also see the inclusion of midfielder Jonjo Shelvey after recovering from an on-going hamstring problem. However Spaniard Michu is likely to miss out again having failed to train for a number of days last week while recent recruit Marvin Emnes is doubtful after a muscle problem at the weekend.

Completely guessed lineups

Statistics & Trivia

• Only Alan Shearer (46) and Dion Dublin (45) have scored more headed goals than Peter Crouch (42) in Premier League history.
• Charlie Adam has now scored two and assisted two in his last five Premier League appearances.
• Peter Crouch now has 85 Premier League goals, one more than each of Cristiano Ronaldo, Carlos Tevez and Fernando Torres.
• Swansea have won back-to-back home games for the first time since March 2013
• All eight of Wilfried Bony's Premier League goals have come at the Liberty Stadium.
• Nathan Dyer has scored three times in his last six league games for the Swans.
• Stoke City have lost just one of their last nine Barclays Premier League home matches (W4 D4 L1).
• Swansea have lost six of their last nine Barclays Premier League away games (W1 D2 L6).
• Peter Crouch has scored three goals in his two previous Premier League appearances against Swansea at the Britannia Stadium.
• Swansea have scored just two goals in their last six Premier League away games, despite attempting 47 shots at goal in these six matches.
• 38% of Stoke City’s Premier League goals this season have come from outside the box (10 of 26) – a higher proportion than any other side.
• Swansea have the opportunity to win back to back Premier League games in their first two matches under Garry Monk – something that they did not manage to do under Michael Laudrup this season.

Straight from the horse's mouth

Garry Monk concedes Swansea haven't deserved anything from their prior trips to Stoke, but hopes to change that on Wednesday night:

"We haven't played well enough there in the past to deserve anything from the two games, but this is another game and a chance to put that record straight. That's something we will be aiming to do.

"Stoke will be pushing hard to get the three points as well, so we are under no illusions as to how hard it is going to be, but this is a chance to go up there and put in a performance we haven't put in there before."

http://www.southwales-eveningpost.co.uk/Garry-Monk-spells-Swansea-City-means-ahead-Stoke/story-20601429-detail/story.html#ixzz2t0e41PqY

Mark Hughes is thinking long term, but wants to replicate recent successes in order to get the result against the Swans::

"I want to be here for a significant amount of time, if I can, to build something really special. This year was always going to be difficult and a season of possible highs and lows, but we will get through it, and be better for it too. It's about making sure we take care of our business.

"I don't think I've experienced, as a player or as a manager, so many teams so close together. If we play like I know we are capable of playing [against Swansea], like we did against Manchester United and how we approached the game against Southampton, we will be fine.

"We want to push on to the top half of the table if we can." 

http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11701/9159969?

Analysis

Well I'm feeling a bit more confident now than I was a week ago. After our capitulation against West Ham Swansea fans could have been forgiven for looking at this fixture with some degree of trepidation due to the direct tactics employed by both teams, however a much, much improved showing against Cardiff in the derby has left the Jack Army confident of a continued return to winning ways. Hopefully the squad are as confident as we are...

Against Cardiff we reverted to tactics not seen since Brendan Rodgers was in charge, and considering how well it worked it's unlikely we'll change much going into this one. Expect width from our wingers, for two central midfielders to sit and shield our back four, and for the Swans to press Stoke high up the field. In the reverse fixture we managed to go two goals down before that penalty decision gave Stoke a point in the last minute, but if we play like we did against Cardiff there's no way we'll find ourselves two goals behind.

One player sure to come in for a bit of stick is Peter Odemwingie, though we have to pay attention to him lest he make us regret our jeers. Briefly of Cardiff, he made a name for himself with all that QPR rubbish a while back and now has a reputation as a bit of a mercenary, however he scored a decent goal on the weekend and given time (and especially space) he'll deliver goals. Ash & Chico take note.

I'm undecided how much rotation we'll see at the Brittania, and a lot will depend on if Garry Monk chooses to rest players like Leon Britton, Angel Rangel & Ben Davies, or if he feels they're capable of playing to that standard twice in four days. I'd say Davies could safely be rested for Taylor, but the loss of Britton or Rangel would be costly. If Canas comes in and is told to explicitly "be Leon Britton" then we might just be ok, but the loss of the diminutive talisman would be massive - especially if "the wandering midfielder" De Guzman lines up in the midfield too. As for Rangel, I feel swapping Davies for Taylor doesn't diminish the quality of the side whereas swapping Rangel for Tiendalli...does.

Whoever lines up in midfield they'll be sure to have a tough time of it with Charlie Adam, Glenn Whelan & Jonathan Walters likely to be up against them. Play at anything less than 100% and we could well see a repeat of the result at the Liberty, but play like we did against Cardiff and Charlie Adam won't touch the ball. That's the aim, as we should be good enough to keep the ball away from this Stoke side, even if they have gone away from the hoofball antics championed by Pulis for so long.

The proof is in the pudding, but I'm remarkably confident about this game. The Swans are surely going to pick up an away result soon, and we've got an excellent opportunity to pick up three points here - three points which could lift us back up into tenth place but crucially, would leave us six points clear of the relegation zone.

That wouldn't be a bad start to life as a Premier League manager for Garry Monk, who - let's be honest - set the bar pretty damn high on the weekend!

Is Wilfried Bony the biggest bargain in the PL so far this season?

In terms of strikers, anyway...

A little while ago I did an article looking at Bony's stats, and how they compared to other striker's in the Premier League (read it here: link), and after a bit more pondering - plus seeing a bit more of other team's star acquisitions, I'm starting to wonder whether he's proving to be the most effective big-money centre forward signing of the summer. Drawing on a transfers list I found on the official PL website (link), I thought it would be interesting to compare how the £12million recruit from Vitesse stands up when his goal return is put alongside other Premiership strikers acquired this past summer.

I could ramble on about it, or I could just stick a load of stats in a spreadsheet. The latter seemed likely to involve less thinking, so I did just that. All statistics are courtesy of www.whoscored.com.

Two things strike me straight off the bat when looking at those statistics. Firstly, you get what you pay for and secondly, you can spot a team's playing style fairly clearly. Long ball merchants - low pass completion. Short passes to feet, high pass completion. When looking through players for fantasy football (join The Swansea Way league here) I noticed Steven Fletcher had the lowest pass completion of any outfield player to have played a significant amount of games (fifty something percent), but I still think he's class, so whether you can read too much into a striker's pass completion I don't know. It could perhaps be seen as more of a reflection of a team's playing style than anything else, but I do think that if Bony, for example, was underperforming it'd show up more, and that his pass completion would be significantly lower.

I'll keep this short and sweet. It's no secret I'm a massive fan of Wilfried Bony, and it's now starting to look like this season could be more of a case of him bedding in and getting up to speed with the league and the level of fitness expected of a Premier League centre forward. In the meantime, his goal tally more than stands up against any of this summer's big money signings, and he's only recently got a decent run in the team in front of three proper central midfielders.

Whether he'll feature against Norwich is doubtful given his exertions in the Europa League, and with Michu rested it's likely the Spaniard will lead the line. Having two players capable of bagging themselves ten plus goals a season will always, always see you a long way to securing another season's Premier League football, and over the last few weeks I'm sure I've noticed a thawing of previously frosty opinions of the Ivorian on Twitter in particular.

With plenty of games left to play, who knows how many goals our two forwards will bag themselves. How many do you think Bony and Michu will score? Get involved in the comment section below or tweet  @TheSwanseaWay!

Michu: Has he changed his game from last season? A statistical comparison

Do the stats back up what we've been witnessing?

Last season, I felt that at times with the inclusion of our floppy-haired flamenco-loving virtuoso at the head of a midfield three we actually lost something in terms of playing "The Swansea Way". I felt his ability to link play was somewhat limited, and although his goals obviously led us to a League Cup win as well as another improved league finish, there was sometimes a bit of a disjointed feel to our attack as Michu, Pablo, Dyer & Routledge all tried to adjust to each other's games. 

This year, we've been witnessing a much improved, more team focused Michu, and I've been wondering if the stats back up what I've been thinking in that he's become a much more effective link between midfield and attack. Luckily, I compiled a load of statistical data from last season so I can put together a fairly accurate comparison - although obviously it's early days yet in terms of how his "average per game" statistics pan out this season.

In the entirety of last season, Michu managed two assists in the league (and 18 goals, in case you'd forgotten). So far this season, whoscored.com are crediting him with one in the league, and when you consider he managed three further assists in the Europa League to date it seems he's definitely looking to play his team-mates in more often. Whether that's indicative of him receiving more support in the final third is up for debate, but to me it looks like he's been taking some advice from Laudrup, who made a career of unpicking defences with cute and/or outrageous passes. Evidence of this can be found in the match against Crystal Palace, where an exquisite turn was proceeded by a lovely through ball for Alvaro Vazquez, before he squared for Dyer to slot home.

He's playing the same amount of passes per game (32), while his pass completion is also slightly up on last season (79.7% - exactly 1% better than last year), and his shots per game has also remained at around the same level (3.0 as opposed to 3.1 last year). He is making less headers, though, winning two aerial duels per game as opposed to 3.3 per game last year. Defensively, they've got him listed as having made 1.2 tackles per game (1.3 last year) and 0.5 interceptions (0.9) this year, but it's not quite that clear cut as he's made 2.3 clearances a game so far this campaign, compared with only 1.1 last year. Those contrasting statistics tally nicely with how I see Michu's defensive game - a bit erratic, full of effort, but not always successful. 

His ball retention has also seen an improvement. Last year he gave the ball away on average 1.1 times per game, and that's marginally down to a nice round 1.0 now, but he's only been dispossessed 0.3 times per game this season as opposed to 0.9 times per game last season - considering we've played United, Liverpool & Arsenal at home, as well as Spurs away, that's not a bad average! He's also having a cheeky dribble more, averaging one per game as opposed to his meagre 0.2 per game average last season. 

I started putting this blog together confident that the stats would back up what I've been seeing with my own eyes, but I had started to become dubious it would indeed turn out like that. That is, until I found the "key passes" statistic. Last year he averaged one per game, but so far this season he's managed a whopping 2.5 - quite a marked improvement and seeing as last year's stat is an average based on a season's data, it's fair to take that as an indication of a change in how he's operating. Often, team's over-zealous marking of Michu allows others to find space, and it seems he's becoming increasingly aware of this and using it to Swansea's advantage. The slightly weird "through ball" statistic is up on last year too, with 0.5 per game showing a rise from 0.1 last year. That can't be right...

It seems that after a slightly shaky start the stats do indeed seem to indicate that Michu is operating in a much more creative manner, and that his fulfilment of the link-man role is vastly improved on last season. Long may it continue, as with a hectic schedule over the next few months we'll need the goals to be coming from other areas of the team, not just from the wizardly left-food of Miguel Michu. 

Swansea City season statistics 2012/13 (by player)

Quite self explanatory today, really. Apologies if the table below is a bit small, it was a bit of a pain making it fit onto the page. All statistics are sourced from Whoscored.com, and feel free to copy this table if you've any use for this type of stat.

In other news, Laudrup is dismissing the reported interest from PSG - again insisting that he's staying at the club. Funny that, I'm sure all the media outlets were positive he'd be off...

Dyer, Routledge & Hernandez - A statistical comparison

With Laudrup's adoption of the "three wingers" formation this season, I thought it would be interesting to see how they fared when you take a look at their respective statistics. For a start, it's impressive that they all made 30+ appearances - Pablo with 27(+ 3 off the bench), Routledge with 30(+6) and Dyer with 25(+12). It's interesting that while Dyer was clearly fit for the entire of the campaign, he started the least games and seems to have been used as more of an impact sub. In fairness, his style of play is ideally suited to that, as his pace and close control are a nightmare for tiring defensive legs.

Routledge has kicked on again this season, and he has played in a central role before under Rodgers with varying degrees of success. The difference under Laudrup has been the rotation between the three wingers, and it's worked to great effect on many an occasion. I'm still of the belief that until we have some more defensive muscle (Canas?) it's risky playing that system against a high-class 4-4-2 however we did alright at Man Utd, so what do I know?

In the goals department, both Pablo and Dyer have 3 each while Routledge has 5, and as far as assists go Dyer and Routledge both have 4 while Pablo has 6. It seems fans have been quick to lambast Pablo but while his playing style does have a frustratingly lethargic style to it he is effective, and with an improved understanding of his role in the team, and a full pre-season behind him, I think he could be a much livelier player next year.

I looked at stats for "aerial duels won per game" but none of the three win any, it seems (one every five games?), so let's move on to passing stats. Given that, despite differing playing styles they're all expected to provide a similar contribution to the team, it's a fair comparison I think. Routledge plays on average 32.6 passes per game, Dyer plays 32.9 while Pablo weighs in with a whopping 43.3. When you consider his pass success rate is the same as Routledge's at 80.4% (although it's nowhere near Dyer's 86.8%) it again seems some of the criticism against the Spaniard has been unfair, especially when he plays 1.8 "key passes per game" - double the frequency of Dyer (0.9) and slightly more than Routledge (1.6).

Wayne Routledge. 

They all play on average one successful cross every other game (not the best for a trio of wingers...) however a look at successful long balls and again it's Hernandez who comes out on top - he plays 2.5 per game to Dyer's 0.5 and Routledge's 1.5. Dyer attempts the least dribbles per game with 0.7, with Routledge at 0.9 and Pablo attempting a nice even one per game. A pattern is definitely developing here. Routledge attempts 0.8 shots per game, Dyer 1.4 and Hernandez 1.6, so in front of goal the Spaniard is again the busier of the trio.

Ball retention next. I'm using statistics from "Whoscored.com" so forgive me if some of the terminology is a bit "whack" - the two terms they use for losing the ball are "turnovers" (losing the ball through poor control etc) and "dispossessed"(tackled without trying to dribble past the opponent).

Dyer is "turned over" 1.5 times per game, and dispossessed with the same regularity, while Routledge is only turned over 1.3 times per game, however he's mugged slightly more often at 1.7 times per game. Guess what? Pablo comes out on top again. He's dispossessed 0.8 times per game and only turned over 1.3 times. I'm the first to admit I've been critical of Pablo in the past, but it seems he must be doing a lot of things I'm not seeing, as you can't fake statistics like this over the course of a season.

In defense it's no real surprise that Nathan Dyer makes the most tackles, with 1.3 per game (compared to Routledge's 1.1 and Pablo's 0.9), however interceptions is another story. Clearly a footballing brain makes a difference, as Pablo makes 1.5 interceptions per game - over double Dyer's 0.7 and treble Routledge's 0.4. He makes the most clearances too (albeit marginally) with 0.6 per game (Dyer has 0.4 and Routledge 0.5) while all three are dribbled past with roughly the same frequency (0.6 times per game for Pablo & Routledge, and 0.4 for Dyer).

Pablo scores the equaliser against Chelsea

It seems there's a recurring theme throughout here. All three wingers have performed admirably this season, but it's impossible to ignore the fact that Pablo has received a rougher ride from fans than he possibly should have. With time on his side I'm sure he'll go on to win over all but the most embittered of fans, as he's clearly a class act.

Worth mentioning is Roland Lamah, who has looked tidy when we've seen him but hasn't really had a chance to make an impact. He should have a goal to his name but the linesman incorrectly ruled his effort against West Brom out, however his loan period runs until next summer so we've time to assess him yet.

With four options at wing already, it's unlikely we'll sign anyone to play in that position surely? If someone outstanding comes up, then maybe, but with decent cover out wide central midfield seems more of a priority.

How long until the transfer window opens?...

Michu vs Lukaku - A statistical comparison

With Swansea rumoured to be looking to bring the Belgian striker to South Wales, how did he compare with Michu this season?

Romelu Lukaku. Age:20 Height: 6'3"

I'm still very skeptical regarding our prospects of landing Romelu Lukaku on loan next season. Ok, so certain things do add up; Lukaku himself has stated that he'd like to go out on loan next season again if he's not going to be regularly included in the Chelsea squad, but for the life of me I can't figure out why he wouldn't be. Europe's highest scoring teenager this term, it's remarkable to me that more attention isn't being paid to a player who finished the season by scoring a hat-trick against Manchester United.

It's possible that as the summer unfolds more clubs may come in for him, but with Chelsea looking set to appoint Jose Mourinho it's likely he'll fancy bringing in his own striker from elsewhere, so it may well be that Lukaku finds himself looking at another loan move. While West Brom do play a slightly more direct style of football than the Swans, looking at his performance this season against Michu's isn't that much of a squiff comparison as, for the second season running, the Swans finished the season in very close proximity to the Baggies. When you consider that Michu hit 18 goals to Lukaku's 17, it would seem to indicate that the team's around them also fared similarly.

Miguel Michu. Age: 27 Height: 6'1"

Michu made 35 starts in the league, and while Lukaku made the same number of appearances 15 of those were off the bench, so he's starting to look good already.  His pass completion is 72.1% (averaging 16.3 successful passes per game) to Michu's 78.7% (32 PPG), but in fairness to the Belgian he plays the same amount of key passes per game as Michu (1) and has four assists - double that of the Spaniard. They both average around three shots a game (Lukaku has 2.8 and Michu 3.1), but when you look at dribbles again the former Anderlecht man comes out on top, successfully going past his man 0.9 times a game to Michu's 0.2. In fairness to Michu, no-one is expecting him to go on a mazy dribble and beat five men...

Interestingly, when you look at defensive stats it seems Michu puts a shift in. The Spaniard makes 1.3 tackles per game to Lukaku's 0.2, and 0.9 interceptions per game to the Belgian's 0.1. That does result, however in Michu fouling his man more than twice as often - 1.4 times per game as opposed to Lukaku's 0.6, but a foul a game isn't that bad a thing. Keeps the defenders on their toes and all that. Michu also makes 1.1 clearances per game - again a much bigger number than the 0.3 managed by Lukaku - but to be honest I'm not that fussed on our striker tracking back and putting himself about. When you look at goals scored v minutes played, Lukaku has 17 goals in 2146 minutes while Michu has 18 in 3171 - the Spaniard has played around 50% more football so for the young Chelsea striker to have got 17 goals in a mid-table side is truly an impressive achievement. It works out that Lukaku has a goal every 126 minutes, while Michu has one every 176. 

It seems in every department (apart from defense, but we don't want him doing that) Lukaku really is a class act, and seeing as he only turned 20 ten days ago there is a whole load of room for improvement too. As has been stated, Europa League football could be the clincher but that's assuming no other club who've qualified for Europe come in for him, which seems a stretch of the imagination. That being said, the only other suitor being mooted at the moment is West Ham, which, as I mentioned yesterday, I don't think we have to worry about. Big Sam? Ha. 

All in all, a very impressive set of numbers from the Belgian. Obviously, you have to watch him play to know whether he'll fit the team but from everything I've seen of him he seems a class act, and what's more I've also heard he's tee-total and very much a good egg. Only Van Persie, Berbatov and Benteke had better "chance conversion rates" than Lukaku this season, who converted 21% of opportunities presented to him, and it's likely with increased game time and experience his level of performance will kick on again, and I for one would have no objection to that happening in South Wales.

Michu & Lukaku up front? Yes please. Sign him up!

Neil Taylor vs Ben Davies - a statistical comparison

Return of ex-Wrexham defender Taylor gives Laudrup food for thought for next season

When Taylor was struck down with that horrific ankle injury against Sunderland early in the season, most Swansea fans will no doubt have been wondering who would fill the void left by the marauding full-back. Few, if any Jacks will be able to say they backed Ben Davies, as green around the gills as you can get, to have such a positive impact on the side after staking his claim early on.

Still only 19 (he's 20 a week yesterday), Davies has gone on to make 37 appearances so far this season, and he's adapted to life in the Premier League with aplomb. With the impending return of Taylor, should Davies keep his place? Granted, next season will require a lot more squad rotation (assuming we qualify for the group stages of the Europa League), so it's likely both will play a lot of games, however you always feel there will a "preferred choice" so with that in mind I thought I'd have a look at some stats...because, you know...stats prove everything...right?

Ben Davies

Davies celebrates his first Swansea goal.

So far this season he's started 28 league games (with three more appearances as sub) and for a long time he was on top of the Premier League "tackle completion" table, coming out on top in more than 70% of his challenges. His pass completion is slightly below the team average at 83% (1096/1317), and he averages 42.5 passes a game, but with youth on his side I'd say this is still highly impressive.

Only one goal isn't surprising given he only attempts a shot once every three games, and one accurate cross every other game (leading to two assists) indicates he could still improve going forward, but there's every reason to believe that will happen given time. He does, however, manage two successful long balls per game (an indication of how our playing style has changed with Michu in the team) and a "key pass" every other game, so the stats back up what I'd have said in the past about Davies, in that he's always looking forward, however the final ball isn't always quite there yet.

In defence his stats are more impressive. He averages two and a half successful tackles, five successful clearances, and 1.7 interceptions per game - it's nice to see a player who clearly likes defending, and the fact he's only dribbled past on average once a game shows he sticks with his man. One area that some fans feel he needs to improve quickly is his aerial game. He only averages one 1.5 successful "aerial duels" per game, and teams have been looking to target Davies in this respect as a way of getting in behind the Swans. While some teams have seemed to benefit from this, you feel that again, given time this aspect of his game will improve.

Neil Taylor

Neil Taylor - clearly concentrating.

Neil Taylor secured his position as first choice left-back for the Swans after a rise which, while it wasn't as meteoric as Davies', was impressive nonetheless. In the interest of a fair(ish) comparison, we'll only look at his stats from last season (so that all the stats are based on Premier League appearances), and interestingly, the first comparison we can make is in terms of attacking threat. As opposed to Davies goal and two assists, Taylor managed only one assist all season last year (and no goals), which would indicate that Davies is actually more effective in getting forward to support the attack.

Taylor made 36 appearances in the league last year, and completed on average 40.5 passes per game, so again only a slight difference there (and it's possible any differences could be down to a change in playing style under Laudrup), but interestingly from the stats I've found online it appears he only completed 81% of his passes (1461/1785); if correct Davies is actually better at retaining possession it seems, which may surprise some fans. Aerially Davies seems to come out on top too - throughout last year Taylor averaged one successful aerial duel every two games (three times less often than his younger counterpart) which, again, was very surprising to me.

Defensively he managed one successful interception, and two completed tackles per game (73.6% tackle completion), and while his tackle completion was excellent this does seem to further reinforce that Davies is more solid in defence. As stated, Davies clearly loves defending - a very rare trait in a modern footballer - and I'm really looking forward to seeing both of them in action next season.

There should be more than enough games to go around next season, so it's unlikely Taylor or Davies will have to go any length of time without starting a game, but it'll be interesting to see who starts the first game next year. Taylor has declared himself fully fit as this season draws to a close, and he'll undoubtedly get a great reception from fans when he makes his long-awaited return from injury.

Personally, I really like Ben Davies. I think with youth on his side he just edges it for me - he's adapted to life in the PL so well that I can only see him going on to bigger and better things, and while Neil Taylor is a fine player, it would be very harsh to relegate Davies to "second fiddle" after such an impressive debut season. Either way, having two outstanding young Welsh left-backs is in no way a bad thing, especially given that Taylor has played at right-back in the past, and with both full-backs fit it also raises the possibility of a Welsh lineup with three of the four defenders playing their club football at Swansea City. Good for club and country, that is.

If only we had such impressive competition for places in every position...