Monday 21 April 2014

Swans win more games with Amat at CB than with Chico: Statistical analysis

How do Chico & Amat compare? Pretty similarly, it must be said...


With Chico suspended for the Newcastle game - a game we subsequently won - it got me thinking that maybe when he's available again (after Aston Villa this weekend) Jordi Amat should still retain his place. 

Amat has progressed rapidly this season. When he came in, he clearly fancied making a name for himself as a defender with a great touch, and early performances were strewn with a mild flamboyance which, while I can't remember it costing us points, was something he had to stamp out.

I think a large part of that was that, as a young centre-back in a new country, the natural thing was to latch onto Chico Flores as a role model, given that on top of being compatriots they also share the same position. It's more than understandable, but I think his performances over time have become more and more infused with characteristics you'd more readily associate with Ashley Williams - there's definitely been a shift in the way he carries himself on the field.

I thought it would be interesting to see how they fare when their performances this season are compared statistically. Chico was lauded for a while as he was included in WhoScored.com's (where the stats I've used below are taken from) Team of the Season last year, but I do think that the way stats are used for defenders needs looking at. Well, the stats they let us see anyway - I'm sure managers have much better sets of numbers to pore over.

So, here's both their stats from Whoscored.com so far this season:

Chico Flores
DefensiveAppsTackleIntFoulsOff WonClrDribbledBlk ShotsOGRating
Premier League*30(1)2.531.30.66.610.517.19
UEFA Europa League*71.33.41.30.75.910.7-7.36
Total37 (1)2.33.11.30.66.510.517.22
AttackingAppsGoalsAss.ShotsKey P'sDribblesFouledOffsDispTrnRating
Premier League*30(1)2-0.80.10.50.7-0.30.37.19
UEFA Europa League*7--0.30.10.40.7-0.4-7.36
Total37 (1)20.70.10.50.7NaN0.30.37.22
PassingAppsAss.Key P'sAvg. PassesPass Suc%CrossesLBTBRating
Premier League*30(1)-0.158.989.9-3.8-7.19
UEFA Europa League*7-0.173.689.5-3.6-7.36
Total37 (1)0.161.689.8NaN3.8NaN7.22
Jordi Amat
DefensiveAppsTackleIntFoulsOff WonClrWas DribbledBlk ShotsOGRating
Premier League*10(4)2.11.60.90.63.90.60.6-6.72
UEFA Europa League*62.53.211.260.50.2-7.28
Total16 (4)2.22.10.90.84.50.60.56.89
AttackingAppsGoalsAss.ShotsKey P'sDribblesFouledOffsDispTrnRating
Premier League*10(4)--0.30.30.30.5-0.40.16.72
UEFA Europa League*6--0.2--0.3-0.30.37.28
Total16 (4)0.30.30.30.4NaN0.40.26.89
PassingAppsAssistsKey PassesAvg. PassesPass Suc%CrossesLBTBRating
Premier League*10(4)-0.343.485-3.9-6.72
UEFA Europa League*6--5988.4-4.5-7.28
Total16 (4)0.348.186.3NaN4.1NaN6.89

The first thing we should look at is the defensive set of statistics, and we'll work with PL numbers for ease of reference. Chico's numbers are, across the board, a lot more impressive - clearances are almost double (6.6 per game compared to 3.9) as are interceptions (3 to 1.6), while tackles made per game are also found to be in favour of the elder Spaniard (2.5 per game to Amat's 2.1).

Amat also plays significantly less passes per game - 43.4 to Chico's 58.9, while he completes only 85% of his passes to Chico's 89.9%. Again, I'm unsure how much you can read into these statistics, and a more effective barometer - given the crucial defensive role they have to play - may possibly be to look at results in matches they've played they've season.

Who has the most beneficial effect? Well, I can't say I can remember Jordi Amat costing us any points when he's been called upon, whereas Chico had a stinker against Everton (where we lost), got sent off against Crystal Palace (costing us two points with the subsequent penalty), while he again saw red against Chelsea the other week. Hardly inspiring stuff with a potential raft of changes in the summer, so let's have a look at which games each has played in.

Jordi played a couple of games early this season, losing against Arsenal at home and Southampton away, before he featured in a 4-0 win over Sunderland at home. I remember at the time thinking that he was unlucky to be benched after the game, but Chico actually featured in that match and was ever present until that point, not missing a match until sixteen games into the season, when he missed the Norwich away game - which we drew due to Gary Hooper's wonder-strike tying things up after we'd taken the lead. I do remember Amat being a bit slow to close Hooper down in that one, and he was dropped for the next match.

He did come back in for the next match against Chelsea, and I do remember a big fan movement for Amat to regain his place in the team at the time. Dropped for the next game, it seemed he'd finally got his break over Chico when he was picked over his compatriot for the Manchester United game. Sadly, someone (I forget who) got injured in that game, and Chico came on meaning Amat was pushed up to defensive midfield - a position he'd go on to operate in on a further four occasions due to an injury crisis which threatened to (and arguably did) seriously derail our season.

Amat's had the odd chance with Chico suspended, and Swansea needing to rotate, but when you look at the overall win/lose/draw breakdown it's easily in favour of Swansea's more established Spaniard. He's started thirty games, losing fifteen (50%), drawing eight (26.67%) and winning seven (23.33%). Amat, on the other hand, has started ten games - of which he's won two (20%), drawn one (10%) and lost seven (70%). The thing to remember is that Amat started three games at defensive midfield - of which we lost two and drew one. If you discount them, it's W2, D0 L5, which, while it isn't great means he's won 28.57% of the games he's started at centre-back - a little bit higher than Chico. The plot becomes even more complicated when you consider that when Ashley Williams has been out, the two Spaniards have also played together! Phew!

There is no perfect way to dissect these stats, but they do confirm what I'd previously suspected; that Amat stands up pretty well when compared with his hairier Spanish mate on paper. Considering his youth it seems fair to say he's going to prove to be an absolute bargain, and with rumours always surrounding the future of Ashley Williams you never know when Jordi might be plunged into the first-team mire.

We may lose a couple of Spaniards this summer (please god led one of them be Alvaro), but let's hope both of these guys stick around for a while to come. They'd both take some replacing, and it's unlikely we'd be able to do it for the same kind of money which saw us sign them both in the first place (£2.5mil for Chico and £2mil for Jordi). Premier League centre-backs generally cost a lot more than that, so despite what some might think of Chico we've undoubtedly got ourselves two bargains.

Next season though, I firmly expect Jordi Amat to be above Chico Flores in the pecking order. If he keeps improving like he currently is, he may even be in with a shout of featuring for the senior Spanish side in years to come too. Two Spanish internationals at the Swans…now that would be something…