Cardiff vs Swansea - Match preview, team news, statistics & analysis

The Match

Cardiff are, as usual, in the midst of some off-field shenanigans, but we'll skip that. Malky Mackay has overseen a shift in tactics, and I'd argue they could slip down the league unless things improve soon. They've shipped shots more frequently than any other Premier League side, and need to improve their "Plan A" if they're to stay in the Premier League, although they did get a point off Everton and three off Man City, so there's clearly talent in the squad. Since then, however, it's been pretty tough going - they did get an away win over Fulham, but the London side have been quite dreadful this season so I wouldn't get too excited about that. Couple that with allowing over thirty shots last weekend against Norwich (although they did somehow come out with a point) and it seems something needs to change before results start to improve. Swansea fans will be hoping that occurs after this weekend's derby.

Swansea have flattered to deceive of late, despite a comprehensive win over Sunderland two weekend's ago. A poor showing in the Europa League followed, before a grinding scoreless draw against West Ham where we could and should have played to a much higher standard. Ok, we dominated possession as per usual, but we're not penetrating teams through the centre and I'm hopeful Wilfried Bony's increasing understanding of how we play will bring about a bit more success in the middle of the park. Whether he can replicate Jason Scotland's flicked through ball to Nathan Dyer in the 2009 counterpart fixture we can't say, but he's already shown he's got that kind of thing in his locker. If ever there was a time for Bony to step up and endear himself to Swansea fans, this would be it.

Prior Form (Most recent at top)

Team News - provided by Physioroom.com's Ben Dinnery

The good news for Cardiff City supporters ahead of their South Wales derby with Swansea on Sunday is that manager Malky Mackay insists the squad have “worked hard” all week and are looking forward to the “challenge” of the game against their local rivals. Their only concern is striker Andreas Cornelius who has missed most of the season due to an ankle ligament problem, although he has trained the forward may not be risked.

For Swansea City, Pablo Hernandez completed his first full week of training in what must seem like a lifetime. The playmaker has struggled with an on-going thigh problem but managed 30 minutes against West Ham and is pushing for a start at the Cardiff City Arena. The Hammers game also saw the return of Jacks captain Ashley Williams, who recovered from ankle ligament damage slightly ahead of schedule. The welsh stopper is “ready to take on Cardiff” in what promises to be quite a feisty affair. Jonjo Shelvey is expected to recover from a slight hamstring niggle but full-back Ben Davies is definitely ruled out.

Late predictable edit: Pablo Hernandez has apparently picked up an injury in training and will miss out. Predictable, and disappointing. Get well soon Pablo!

Completely guessed lineups

Statistics & Trivia

• This is the first top-flight meeting of the two sides.
• No side has ever "done the double" - winning both the home and away fixture Cardiff goalkeeper
• David Marshall has made 44 saves this season, 10 more than any other goalkeeper.
• Swansea have already benefited from two own-goals this season, more than any other side. 
• The last meetings between Cardiff and Swansea (in the 2010-11 season) saw both games won 1-0 by the away side.
• Cardiff have scored a total of only one goal in their last three Premier League home games.
• Swansea have a league-high four yellow cards for dissent this season. 
• Michu has scored in only three of his last 14 Premier League appearances.
• Cardiff kept only their second Premier League clean sheet last weekend, against Norwich.
• Cardiff have shipped more shots (174) than any other team in the Premier League this season.
• Cardiff have not won a home fixture since winning 3-2 against Man City in their first home game.
• Only Villa and Man Utd (six) have gained more points from losing positions than Cardiff this season (four).
• Swansea have only won two of their last seven games in all competitions.
• Only three of Swansea's 12 Premier League goals this season have come in the first half.
• The Swans are unbeaten against bottom-half opposition this season (W3, D1).
• Michu has scored two Premier League goals this term - at the corresponding stage last season he had six.
• Wilfried Bony and Michu have scored more goals between them (13) than the entire Cardiff squad combined this term (12).

Straight from the horse's mouth

Michael Laudrup thinks his team will need to keep their emotions in check if they're to triumph:

"We're talking feelings and emotions here and that's why a derby is something different,. Sometimes as a manager you need to say - 'I know you feel this game very much but still you have to look at it as a football game' - maybe a little different but it is still a game against 11 where you have to think with your head and play with your feet. You cannot let your emotions drag yourself towards something because we want to win the game and not play with one less."  

http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/swansea-city/news/laudrup-keep-emotions-under-wraps_115049.html 

Michel Vorm is evidently looking forward to his first South Wales Derby:

“When I played for Utrecht against Ajax, I saw some coins and some phones flying around. Utrecht against Ajax is quite intense. When Utrecht played Den Haag, I saw fans almost coming on. I saw some hands trying to climb over. I said, ‘If I see somebody come over, I’m off!' 

"We went to Den Haag one time with the police around us, because you could see everybody waiting. It is intense but on the pitch it’s a game like normal. I’ll approach this like a normal game. I saw some images and videos [of previous derby exploits]. You have to really experience it. 

“I’m really looking forward to it. I get a positive energy from fans for or against me. If they’re going to throw things at me it’s never nice but the whole atmosphere? Love it. Love it. The bigger the better. I love these kind of games.’’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/swansea-city/10422121/I-love-this-type-of-game-no-matter-how-intense-it-is-says-Swanseas-Michel-Vorm-ahead-of-derby-against-Cardiff.html

Malky Mackay responded to Angel Rangel's comments regarding Gary Medel possibly not having the temperament for this type of game:

“Gary hasn’t been booked yet, so it shows he’s not easily wound up - it’s just one of these things.”

"I’ve absolutely no doubts there’s a modicum of being calm and settled and being focused, but I do want that heightened sense of the derby game being inside them because having that little edge to them can really benefit them in these games.

“We’ll monitor it and make sure none of them are on the ceiling at that point - but it’s something you’ve got to embrace and enjoy.”

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/swanseas-pre-south-wales-derby-taunts-2665675#ixzz2jRUtE0SR 

Analysis

It's finally here. The match both sets of fans pored over the fixture list for when it was released god knows how long ago. Cardiff meet Swansea in the first ever top flight meeting of the sides, but something which must be acknowledged in terms of form is that if you look at the teams' respective last five fixtures, four of Cardiff's were at home whereas four of Swansea's were at home. Given there's only two points between the sides, and that in a derby game of this magnitude form goes out the window, I'd argue that bookies installing Swansea as favourites for this one is meaningless.

Cardiff have an excellent midfielder in Medel, and that he hasn't been booked this season amazes me. As Rangel pointed out, he's a bit of a hothead and it's clear he's kept that side of his game under wraps so far this season - which should be applauded - but whether he can manage that in a derby fixture remains to be seen. Just ahead of him Jordan Mutch looks like a really good prospect after seemingly overcoming the injury problems which saw him miss a lot of last season, and with Aron Gunnarsson alongside the aforementioned pair the home side have a midfield which will be very hard to break down indeed.

Swansea will need to control the midfield in this fixture if they're to emerge victorious. The fans will give...no, demand the players give an extra 10%, and with the vast majority being of a red (and blue) persuasion it's got to be expected that the home side will draw more energy from the crowd than their opponents. That being said, if we can score early the travelling Jacks will no doubt go a long way in drowning out their counterparts in the home sections of the ground.

I keep saying it, but if it happens against Cardiff it'll be class - Wilfried Bony will make a mark. At some point soon he's going to show what he can do, and I'm convinced he can produce the goods - he was bought to succeed over a longer period of time than nine league games represents, and if we allow him the time he needs to come good we'll be very thankful indeed. Watch the highlights of the last derby at Ninian - as I mentioned in the intro Scotland is/was a targetman who could link play with players running off him and the same can be said of Bony. All we need to do is figure out the timing of the runs off him and the balls into him and we'll rapidly reap the benefits of having a powerhouse up front who can retain possession even when given the ball in a tricky situation. High risk, high reward.

As I'm a Swansea fan, I've got to back us for a win. I do believe that we'll win 2-1, but I'm obviously massively biased so my logic is undoubtedly short-sighted. That being said, the bookies agree, so maybe my faith is well-founded.

Either way, another three points come 6PM on Sunday and I'll be a very happy man indeed. And I won't be alone.