Monday 18 November 2013

A profile of Swans target Thomas Ince

Tricky winger has been courting attention for a while, but how do his stats compare to the Swans' wingers?


We've been linked with Tom Ince before. In fairness though, pretty much everyone has been linked with him at some point, however it is now rumoured he fancies a move to the Swans over various other suitors. Given Cardiff had previously agreed terms with both the player and the club during the summer (as reportedly widely by the BBC and others) before Ince himself pulled the plug on the move, it would surprise me if only six months later he turned around and said "I want to move to the Swans" but stranger things have happened in football I guess.

A tricky left-footed winger, Ince started out at Liverpool (one of his dad Paul's previous clubs), but failed to break into the first team. A short spell on loan at Notts County followed, before Blackpool managed to snaffle him up in a deal which saw a nominal amount of compensation awarded to the Merseyside club. There was, however, a 35% sell-on fee added into the contract, so this explains the lofty price tag that's been attached. With just over six months to run on his contract Blackpool are looking to cash in, but they're aware that unless they get over £5million for him they're unlikely to receive much in the way of a financial boost.

Stats then. The stand out statistic that jumps out at you is that in ninety-five league appearances Ince has grabbed thirty-two goals. Very, very impressive for a winger, and not far off the level of goal-scoring Sinclair was maintaining at Championship level. Can he step it up? Let's hope so. In all competitions he's got 34 in 109, but as he's not 22 until January you'd expect him to be able to kick on again before too long. I'm wondering whether Ince does indeed possess a shade of Scott Sinclair about him - let's hope he sticks around and/or manages to step up a level if he does move to the Premiership, as opposed to taking a bumper contract at a major club and rotting in the reserves for a year.

Now, I know it's dangerous comparing stats of players playing in different leagues, but I thought "Sod it, it's the international break and I'm bored" so I'm doing it anyway. All stats are sourced from Whoscored.com and based on this season.

First up - dribbles. Ince makes 1.9 successful dribbles a game, whereas Wayne Routledge has made 0.8. Nathan Dyer, on the other hand, has made 1.8 which reflects what fans have thought of late, in that he's been the more aggressive, forward facing option amongst the Swansea wingers. Ince is, alarmingly, dispossessed 3.5 times a game - over triple either Routledge's 1 or Dyer's 1.1. I guess that, coupled with his high average dribble count, that means he's taking people on a lot. How successful he's been at it this season is something you'll have to ask a Blackpool fan, but six goals and two assists in twelve games (eleven starts) dwarfs the two goals no assists managed by Dyer, and the two assists no goals managed by Routledge.

As the saying goes, you've got to be in it to win it. Unsurprisingly, if you order the three aforementioned players by their average shots per game, it matches how they'd stack up if you went by their goal tally. Routledge shoots on average 0.8 times per game, Dyer 1.3 and Ince 2.9 - or 0,2 and 6 goals respectively. More shots, more goals. It also seems Ince has an eye for a pass, averaging 1.4 key passes a game (which really isn't bad considering the way these stats are compiled), a figure matched by Routledge with Dyer coming in just behind at 1.2. Like Dyer (2), Ince gives the ball away 2.1 times a game, with Routledge slightly better off at 1.7.

If you look at passes in general, Ince weighs in a fair bit lighter than either Dyer or Routledge. They complete 36.2 and 35.6 passes at 86.8% and 83.4% respectively, whereas Ince completes 26 passes per game, averaging 81.7% accuracy, but as I've said before I believe that pretty much any player coming in to the Swans' setup will see a rise in these kind of numbers. Ince also makes more long range passes. 1.6 crosses and 1.5 successful long balls per game beats Dyer & Routledge all ends up - Dyer makes 0.7 and 0.1, Routledge 0.5 and 1.1 respectively. Given Bony's penalty-area presence, that's a criminally small output from players who are supposed to provide the striker with ammunition.

Defensively, Nathan Dyer and Wayne Routledge both have their strong points, whereas Ince...doesn't really. Dyer makes 1.6 tackles per game, which outweighs Routledge & Ince (both 0.7), and Routledge makes 1.5 interceptions per game - better than either the 0.7 averaged by Ince or the 0.4 Dyer accrues. Again, it's a different system he's playing in, and a different league, but it does make for interesting reading.

Now that I've had a look through some stats, I'm getting the feeling of a raw talent. Whether he's someone who'd fit in with how we do things here I can't personally say, but it appears the powers that be in SA1 hold him in high regard. If you're talking in general terms, however, he's young and British - a combination that's known to be looked fondly upon in these parts - and rightly so.

It seems all that remains to be seen is whether talks of a deal between Blackpool & the Swans are premature, or if they are indeed on the mark. Personally, I do think the money that was being talked about (around £7million or £8million) is too rich for our tastes. It's fairly openly acknowledged the only reason his fee is so high is because Blackpool want to maximise the profit, so the buying club may well have to drag out negotiations until deadline day in order to knock a million or two off the asking price.

This leaves Ince at a strange crossroads where unless something gives, Blackpool could face losing him on a free in the summer. That seems an unlikely eventuality if money is on the table though, so you never know - Huw could pull one of his super-duper deals out of the hat. It must be said though, that a loan with a view to a permanent deal seems much more likely, given our (justified) reluctance to spend serious money in January.

I'll finish this up with a video - see for yourselves what we could be getting. Would you like to see Ince brought in? If not, who else would you like to see strutting their stuff in SA1?