Friday, 3 October 2014

Swansea v Newcastle - Preview, team news, stats, predicted lineups, prior form, key players, quotes & analysis





The Match


Swansea once again saw themselves reduced to ten men last weekend, but this time managed to hold on for a point. Rangel's red card means Jazz Richards will get a first Premier League start in three years, and given how well he's played in the Capital One Cup there's every reason to believe he'll take his chance. A determined rearguard action has been hailed by Monk midweek, and rightly so - we've already got five clean sheets in eight games and you wouldn't bet against another this weekend. Keep Newcastle out at the back, and we can surely overpower their midfield, which seems lacking spark since Cabaye departed for France.

Newcastle just can't get a result, for love nor money. They're not bottom of the table courtesy of Burnley's inferior goal difference, but while they've managed to find the net on five occasions so far twelve goals conceded tells a truer story, and unless something improves fast this team have problems. Beset by off-field disputes between fans and owner Mike Ashley over the performance of under-fire manager Alan Pardew, it's likely there'll be chants of protest from the away end - especially if they go behind early on.

Prior Form (Most recent at top)


Premier LeagueSunderland0-0Swansea
League CupSwansea3-0Everton
Premier LeagueSwansea0-1Southampton
Premier LeagueChelsea4-2Swansea
Premier LeagueSwansea3-0West Brom




Premier LeagueStoke1-0Newcastle
League CupCrystal Palace2-3Newcastle
Premier LeagueNewcastle2-2Hull
Premier LeagueSouthampton4-0Newcastle
Premier LeagueNewcastle3-3Crystal Palace

 

Team News - Provided by injury guru @BenDinnery


Displaying Premier Injuries.jpg
Coming soon...

Thanks as usual to Ben for providing us with up-to-date team news. You can follow him on Twitter @BenDinnery, and you can also find him on Talksport, ESPN & PremierInjuries.com


Completely guessed lineups





Key Players


A new feature in the preview this year, I'll be using statistical radars to show two of the key attacking threats on display

This week I compared Jonjo Shelvey and Jack Colback. Read the full article here: link

Jonjo Shelvey vs Jack Colback - Defensive contribution (2013/14)











As you can see, the only notable spikes on Colback's radar are for not losing possession and passing the ball accurately. He gives away lots of fouls, doesn't make many tackles, and (contrastingly with Jonjo) he isn't making up for defensive frailties with attacking output. Ok, he makes slightly more tackles and interceptions than Jonjo but given how few he makes in the grand scheme of things, it's hardly something to write home about.

On to attacking output, then.

Jonjo Shelvey vs Jack Colback - Attacking contribution (2013/14)

 

As you can see, Shelvey once again comes across as a much more rounded player. The only spikes on Colback's radar are (again) not being dispossessed and passing the ball accurately, while the amount of tackles and interceptions he makes comes across more favourably when plotted on the attacking radar. What's noticeable though is that his attacking output is essentially not there - ok, when he does actually take a shot his shooting and conversion are very good, but he gets into shooting positions so infrequently that it doesn't warrant writing about further.

Shelvey, on the other hand, fares rather better. His dribbling, goals, shots per game, assists, key passes and through balls are all a lot better than Colback's, and at this point I'm wondering just how much irony the "Ginger Pirlo" nickname came loaded with.


Statistics & Trivia


  • Newcastle have failed to score in 7 of their last 8 away matches in the Premier League.  
  • Newcastle have lost 7 of their last 8 away matches in the Premier League.
  • Newcastle have been losing at both half time and full time in 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Premier League.    
  • Swansea have won their last 4 matches against Newcastle in all competitions.
  • Alan Pardew has picked up just 19 points from 81 available since Boxing Day.
  • Swansea have 11 players that have appeared in every Premier League fixture so far this season; more than any other side.
  • Newcastle have scored only 1 Premier League goal away from home in their last six months – a Martin Skrtel own goal.
  • Newcastle Under Pardew have conceded the first goal of the game in 63  league games. Of those games, they've won four. drawn eleven and lost fourty-eight (76%), and scored the next goal of the game in only 20/63 (31.75%).

Straight from the horse's mouth

  

Garry Monk is expecting a tough match this weekend:

"It will be a very tough game. Newcastle have a very good squad and good players. I know they are in a difficult moment, but I've been there as a player myself and when that happens you become a different animal.
"They will come here and work hard, just as they did against Stoke. But Saturday's game is one we are looking forward to and we want to put on a good performance. We are in a good place right now, but we can be even better than what we have been.

"We have been working very hard to put things in place since pre-season but we need to show more and that's what we are striving for.

"It's excellent news [Jonjo being called up for England] for both the player and the club. We have a lot of international players in the squad, but we have talked a lot about England in recent weeks and the last couple of seasons.

"We've worked very hard with Jonjo, both in terms of his contribution on and off the pitch.
"He has made big improvements and this will give him a massive boost going forward."
http://www.swanseacity.net/news/article/monk-pre-newcastle-press-1984507.aspx#w7Bvl0hqI0jDVLkO.99

Alan Pardew has been concentrating on the mental side of the game in the buildup to the match:

"We focused very much on the mental side of the game this week, responses on the pitch and how you respond to the media, because you [the media] won’t leave us alone at the moment. It is my job and duty to come up with solutions when things are not working, so whether we make changes – we will have to wait and see. 
“Our fans want to see a brand of football that we can’t quite put together right now, we are trying to do it and have quality. It is about digging in and fighting at the moment as a team, if we do that then something will fall our way. 
"We’re trying to help the team, find a solution tp get the team playing to its quality, we’re very focused on Saturday.”

Analysis


We're supposed to win this one, right? I mean...just look at the stats! You can tell things normally don't go our way in South Wales by the reaction I had when I tweeted out the stats included above though - the typical response was "well that just means we're going to lose" - normally I can empathise but in the case of this fixture I do think it'll be more of the same, and that we'll claim victory.

I watched Newcastle on Monday at Stoke...and they were so bad. They obviously have very good players, and on their day they're capable of beating anyone, but on current performances (and with Pardew in charge) I can't see them turning us over. We're in confident form and while we haven't excelled in terms of overall performance for a couple of matches, you can't help but get the sense`that (especially with Wilf & Bafi yet to find the back of the net) someone is liable to have a couple of goals put on them.

It's possible we'll see two changes I'd imagine, with Jazz coming in for the suspended Rangel & Wilf coming back in for Gomis. The Frenchman wasn't all that impressive against Sunderland, and Wilf's brief cameo at the end was full of purpose and intent. It seems he's got a "point to prove" head on at the moment and that can only mean good things. If I was Mike Williamson or Fabricio Coloccini I wouldn't be enthused about the prospect of trying to stop him.

We can't rule out the threat posed by Newcastle though. Ok, there's a reason their form is so bad but they do have quality all over the park. We know all too well the threat posed by Papiss Cisse, while in Sissoko, Gouffran, Cabella & more they have players who can hurt anyone. We need to do what we do best - retain the ball and use it to shift the opposition about, dragging them out of position (something Newcastle seemed all too prone to do on Monday night), while pressing high and hard when we haven't got the ball. Do this, and I can't see Newcastle living with us.

If I sound confident, it's because I am. "Pardiola", in my opinion, has retained his job on a number of occasions by securing big results when defeat could well have seen him face the sack. He can't keep doing it forever. While there's obviously folly to be found in overt confidence, I really can't see Newcastle getting anything here. Perhaps it's because I watched them on Monday and they were so bad. Either way, I think we could see a decent Swans win, and I wouldn't bet against another clean sheet to boot.