Leon v Ki - A statistical comparison

Swansea stalwart Leon Britton

With yesterday's blog looking at how Ki and Jonathan De Guzman fare when their stats are compared, it seems only fair (and a few people have asked me) to look at how Leon comes out when all is said and done. With Ki seemingly being asked to play like Leon, it should be very interesting to see how this pans out. I'll throw JDG's stats in at the end for good measure too, for ease of comparison. 

It's Leon, so let's start with passes. Famously Europe's most accurate passer last season, he's so far found himself usurped in the pass completion department by his lanky South Korean counterpart. Leon has completed 91% of his passes (1359/1493) compared to Ki's 92.5% (1438/1554), and the Korean again comes out on top when you look at key passes, playing 1 a game compared to Leon's 0.3. I think we'd all agree that from what we've seen of Ki this season, his game is naturally more expansive than how Leon has played for the last few years, so this is likely an unsurprising statistic to most. That Ki plays on average 55.5 passes a game compared to Leon's 53.3, however, may surprise some given that Leon is still regarded as the central cog around which the Swansea team rotates, and when you consider Ki plays 5.8 successful long passes a game compared to Leon's 1.8, it seems that when it comes to shifting the ball on quickly (and accurately) the Korean is at least a match for the Swans' legend.

£5million man Ki Sung-Yueng

A look at defence now. While Leon is hardly a tough-tackler, Ki has been at the receiving end of criticism from fans for, ahem, deciding not to tackle (I promised to keep the language on this website child friendly...), so it's interesting to see that, even if this is true, they make almost an identical amount of tackles per game (Leon with 1.3 and Ki with 1.2), however Leon does come out on top when you look at interceptions, averaging 2.1 per game, edging towards double the 1.2 Ki manages, and also makes more blocks - stopping 0.5 shots a game to Ki's 0.3. Interestingly, Leon get's dribbled past almost once a game (0.8) whereas Ki is clearly a tougher man to get past, averaging exactly half that, and Ki also makes more clearances, with 1.3 to Leon's 0.8, and given that the defensive role is new to Ki I'm surprised at the level of criticism he's received for supposed defensive failings.

The similarities continue; both midfielders attempt 0.4 dribbles a game, are dispossessed once a game (ish - Leon is 0.8 and Ki 0.9) and draw one foul a game, however Leon actually gives away possession twice as often - 0.8 times per game as opposed to Ki's 0.4. There is definitely an element of splitting hairs going on here; I get the feeling that if I was to compare, say, the central midfielders at another mid-table club (West Brom, Fulham etc) the statistics would vary a lot more from player to player, although I'd imagine on the whole the attacking statistics would be a little more impressive. Ki has two assists while Leon has none, and while the 1.4 shots per game attempted by the Korean isn't a huge amount it dwarfs the 0.3 attempted by the diminutive Londoner. That neither have managed a goal this term is no surprise.

I'm not alone in expecting Leon to pass regardless of the goalscoring opportunity that's presented itself, and slightly tenuously it gives me a chance to stick a quality video in.. I'll never forget the Playoff Semi-Final - Leon received the ball from a short corner, nipped past Marcus Tudgay and let fly with his left foot, leaving Lee Camp with no chance and putting the Swans 1-0 up. Epic stuff, that, but the excitement was definitely heightened because not one Swansea fan would have expected Leon to shoot from there - the little man himself was probably as surprised as anyone to see the ball end up in the top corner! The noise in that video is special...

As suggested in yesterday's blog, I don't really see these two players as having to compete for the same place, even though there's likely to be increased competition next year (press reports indicate we've agreed to sign Jose Canas, who operates as a defensive midfielder). With two defensive berths in the midfield against "bigger" teams (ie. Leon & Canas) and a dedicated attacking midfielder ahead of them (Ki or De Guzman) it would give us more balance than we've had of late (I still don't like Michu at attacking midfield as I feel it disrupts the normal rhythm). Against "lesser" teams, the three wingers formation should work a treat with a bit more practice/player recruitment, and I like the idea that we'll have two variations to our midfield, with interchangeable personnel. That kind of dynamism and fluidity could prove crucial when/if the fixtures pile up due to continued European involvement, and Laudrup has previously stated he'd like to have two players for every position.

There is, of course, the possibility that Canas is being lined up as a replacement for Leon. Let's not think about that eh...

Full stats for Leon Britton, Jonathan De Guzman & Ki Sung-Yueng

De Guzman vs Ki - a statistical comparison

With the Swans rumoured to have agreed a deal for Real Betis midfielder Jose Canas, it appears there will be increased competition in the Swansea midfield next year, and with De Guzman yet to sign permanently, I thought it would be interesting to have a look at some statistics to see what kind of effect Ki & JDG have had on the team.

Ki Sung-Yueng

It would be easy to just go with the obvious and leave it there. Ki still tops the Premier League charts in terms of passing accuracy, while JDG is the Swans' second top scorer, so you'd be forgiven for thinking that Ki is obviously a more defensive player while JDG has excelled in attack, and while both are partially true I feel there's more going on than meets the eye.

Of late, I've felt De Guzman's performances haven't been up to the standard he set earlier in the season, and some fans are questioning his work-rate - saying that he doesn't seem to harry the opposition as much as he should. While I can't say I feel that's true, I do think that De Guzman drifts around the field too much when playing alongside Leon (or whoever else) in a deeper midfield role, and that in turn creates problems in terms of defensive organisation.

When you play football like the Swans do, being heavily reliant on team shape to maintain a solid defensive footing, it's imperative that the defensive midfielders hold their position; Leon seemed to be dragged around the field an awful lot against Southampton and given how out of character it appeared it must have been to do with those around him distorting the team shape. When Michu plays attacking midfield as opposed to centre-forward I feel this exacerbates the problem, but I do feel that when Ki plays alongside Leon it gives the Swans a lot more balance.

At present, I still prefer a midfield trio of Leon, Ki, and JDG in front of them, but if there was only one "defensive" midfield berth to play for, should it go to Ki or De Guzman? With all stats only relating to PL games, first up let's look at ball retention. Ki  has completed 92.5% of his passes (1438/1554 - 6th in Europe in terms of passing accuracy) against De Guzman's 88.4% (1527/1727) and while JDG has played more passes in total he's also started nine more games than his Korean counterpart. Ki averages 55.5 passes completed a game to De Guzman's 54.4, so not much to choose from there, but it would seem that, given the smaller amount of starts enjoyed by the Korean, he's a little busier in terms of moving the ball around the field.

Jonathan De Guzman

De Guzman has clearly created more in attack, with six assists to Ki's two, and they average 1.6 and 1 "key pass(es)" [excuse the pun] respectively - in fairness to Ki though he's consistently been employed in a more defensive role than he'd previously been used to and I feel his natural game would see him play further forward which would in turn see him create more opportunities (as well as finally getting his first goal). A demonstration of this was when well placed (again) against Southampton, Ki opted to pass instead of shoot - as anyone who's watched Youtube videos of him can testify, the guy likes to shoot and has scored lots of goals, and I think his reluctance to shoot is due to the distinct awareness that to comply with his role in the team, he's to retain possession in situations whereby otherwise he would have had a pop.

Ki averages 5.9 successful long balls per game against JDG's 3.8, further drilling home the accuracy with which the Korean dispatches the ball. I love watching Ki play as everything seems to be done with an exaggerated movement in an effort to connect perfectly, and I think sometimes it's easy to mistake it for the Korean being ponderous - the stats show this isn't the case as he's only dispossessed 0.9 times per game (against De Guzman's 1.2) and attempts the same amount of dribbles as the man on loan from Villareal (0.4). Interestingly, the Dutchman wins the ball back twice as often, with 0.9 "turnovers" per game (as opposed to Ki's 0.4), but they attempt an almost identical amount of shots (Ki with 1.4, JDG with 1.5).

Ki manages over twice as many clearances per game (1.3 to 0.6), while they both complete the same amount of interceptions (1.2) and almost the same amount of tackles (Ki with 1.2 & JDG with 1.3). I think this is starting to show that some fans view that JDG is (marginally) more combative is possibly far from the mark, as it seems in terms of defensive contribution Ki  is just as effective. It obviously can't be ignored that with 5 goals and 6 assists, De Guzman has been massively more potent in attack when compared with Ki's 0 goals and 2 assists, but I do feel that if Ki had enjoyed a more attacking role throughout the season the figures would be a lot more even. As mentioned above, I get the distinct impression that Ki's natural game is more attacking than we're currently seeing, and I'm hoping the arrival of Canas remedies this, as I'd love to see him start banging them in from 30 yards.

Should we sign De Guzman permanently? Reports had previously put the price at £8million, but recently it seems that's been revised and £5million would be nearer the mark. Originally I thought that still sounded a lot, given that we're likely to have paid his wages all year and, possibly, a fee to take him on loan in the first place, but after speaking with a friend I came to the conclusion that if there was a midfielder of JDG's quality at a Premier League club who were getting relegated, and he'd scored 5 goals and got 6 assists that season, I'd be saying we should sign him up, especially if the asking price is only £5million. For a central midfielder who can clearly cut it in the Premier League, and is likely to kick on again next season, that seems a bit of a bargain, and with plenty of games to go round next year both Ki and JDG could enjoy lots of playing time in the CAM role - whether that happens though is another thing.

For now, I'd like to see Leon and Ki deep, with JDG ahead of them, but if we sign Canas (and he's as good as we hope) then at present I'd still like to see Ki given a run in the team in a creative attacking role. Sure, it'll take a while for him to get out of the "pass, pass, pass" train of thought but I think ultimately it'll be worth it. Check out the video above for a demonstration of what I mean. In a cop out similar to the one at the end of the Neil Taylor v Ben Davies comparison, I'm going to say that realistically they are both important members of the Swansea squad who we can expect to improve next year, and I'd love to see De Guzman sign permanently. For £5million, anyway...

Swansea 0 - 0 Southampton - The Swans continue to limp over the line...

First thing's first; I'm officially retiring from predictions. All of the statistics ahead of the last few games indicated we'd see a glut of goals, and my 0-0/1-0 (admittedly "against the grain") predictions proved far from the mark. So, in true flippant form, and with all the stats again pointing to a deluge of goals, I decided to call this one 3-2. Once again, it proved far from the mark...

The Swans struggled to penetrate Southampton throughout the match. The first 15 minutes from the Swans saw them retain possession at ease, however the final ball was consistently missing. Southampton deserve massive credit for lining up with three forwards, and for pressing the Swans high up the pitch for the majority of the match. Once it became apparent the Swans were going to struggle to find a way through the Saints' defence the visitors gained confidence, and for a good 25 minutes at the end of the first half they were the better side. The Swans even seemed to resort to playing long balls; although whether this was the result of tactical instruction or opposition pressure we can't say.

Right at the death of the first half came the game's first real talking point. A pretty dodgy-looking free-kick was awarded on the edge of the Swans' box and Rickie Lambert was surely already celebrating when Vorm managed to claw the ball away from the top corner and out for a corner. From the resulting corner Lallana had the ball in the net, but it was disallowed for a foul on Vorm - in all honesty it looked pretty soft but the Swans keeper did seem to have two hands on the ball - whether that was me imagining things though I can't say, and MOTD will no doubt see me right or wrong later on.

Luke Moore was replaced by Routledge at half time, and while the forward had hardly touched the ball

in the first half I felt replacing Hernandez would have made more sense. Given the scarcity of ball the forward had received, he can hardly have been blamed for not creating more, however the switch almost led to a goal as Routledge broke free down the right before finding Michu with a great cross, only to see the Spaniard head over when well placed in the centre of the box.

Hernandez was eventually withdrawn for Ki on the hour mark, and I felt the Korean had an instant impact in that the Swans actually started to retain possession through the centre of the field. I'd like to see him operate further forward, as by giving him a defensive role it seems to give him doubts about shooting, and he always seems to look for the pass. As any number of Youtube videos show, he loves a shot and I think his willingness to pass must be due to tactical instruction to "keep it ticking over" a lá Leon. Hopefully he'll break his duck soon and we'll see the best of him.

Both Pablo and Dyer haven't been playing well for a while now and Routledge must wonder what he'd done wrong to find himself on the bench today. I thought the Spaniard in particular was atrocious, and I felt pretty relieved when he left the field. Time and time again he gave the ball away and he really needs to find some form if he's to justify his price tag. Dyer also looked bereft of ideas for the most part, and his day was summed up when he was fed in by Michu following a bit of a goalmouth scramble, and found himself beyond the keeper with only a defender on the line to beat. His shot across goal was straight at the one man it was possible to find and was cleared away, and while Michu could and possibly should have shot himself, Dyer's effort was tame and he should have done better. 

In truth that was probably the Swans best chance - the afternoon was summed up when Chico decided to shoot from about 45 yards - his shot was blocked and the rebound almost led to a Southampton breakaway. The Southampton defence held tight and they almost nicked it late on; Mayuka forcing a good save from Vorm from close range. 

The Swans lacked bite in the centre of the field, but more importantly they looked short of a spark in the final third. Routledge seemed to massively help the cause when he came on, and surely he must start the next game. The same can be said of Ki. De Guzman has been impressive this season but he doesn't have the discipline to maintain the shape of the Swansea midfield, and often finds himself dragging others out of position. If Laudrup is going to insist on playing Michu at attacking midfield (and I really hope that stops soon) then I'd much rather see Ki & Leon behind him, as I feel this gives a lot more structure to the side.

On to next week then. The Swans have now only picked up four wins in their last fourteen games - this isn't how Laudrup would have wanted to enter the closing straight and with Man City and Chelsea on the horizon he'll be hoping we can spring a surprise result in one of those games. I know you can't always be on top of your game, but no doubt there's work to be done on the training ground ahead of the first of those fixtures - away at Chelsea next Sunday. 

Still, ninth in the Premier League isn't bad...

Swansea City v Southampton Match Preview, Team News, Analysis & More

                         

      Swansea City   vs   Southampton
            Barclays Premier League

Saturday 20/04/13

15:00pm K.O.

Liberty Stadium

Referee: Phil Dowd

The Match

Swansea will take to the field against Southampton looking for their first win since the beginning of March. Since winning the Capital One Cup, the Swans have only picked up four points in five games and Laudrup knows a win will help reinvigorate his side as they look to push as high up the table as possible. Last time out against Southampton the game ended in a 1-1 draw, but Swansea must be looking at this as a winnable game, given that their next two fixtures are against Man City & Chelsea.

Morgan Schneiderlin scores for Saints against the Swans
earlier in the season.

Southampton have enjoyed a great run of form of late. Home wins over Chelsea and Liverpool have come in the middle of a run which has seen them go six games unbeaten, and there won't be too many fans left doubting Mauricio Pochettino as they find themselves sitting in 12th place in the league, 3 points (and 3 places) below the Swans. Like many football fans, I felt a sense of disgust when Nigel Adkins was dismissed and replaced by Pochettino, but even though Adkins looked likely to keep Saints up it does seem that they have improved under their new manager, especially over the last month. A win over the Swans could see them move into the top half of the table, and a top-ten finish would no doubt be treated as an excellent achievement for a side who were probably expecting to be scrapping it out in a relegation dogfight come the end of the season.

Prior Form (most recent at top)

Premier League                Norwich          2 - 2  Swansea
Premier League                Swansea       1 - 2  Tottenham
Premier League                Swansea       0 - 2   Arsenal        

Premier League                West Brom     2 - 1  Swansea

Premier League                Swansea       1 - 0  Newcastle
            

Premier League                Southampton  1 - 1  West Ham
Premier League                Reading            0 - 2  Southampton
Premier League                Southampton  2 - 1  Chelsea        

Premier League                Southmpton    3 - 1  Liverpool
Premier League                Norwich            0 - 0  Southampton

Team News

Swansea have almost a fully-fit squad to choose from. Neil Taylor could feature after a remarkably quick comeback from his horrific ankle injury, while Leon is available after missing the Norwich game due to the birth of his twin sons.

Southampton have Artur Boruc available again after he missed their last game due to an investigation into an incident where he'd apparently had an altercation with some home fans; the 'keeper has seemingly been cleared of any wrongdoing so will be in the matchday squad. Captain Kelvin Davis is a doubt after picking up a knock in training, while Guly Do Prado is likely to miss out with a fever; Jay Rodriguez, Luke Shaw & Jason Puncheon had also been suffering the effects of the virus but have been given the all clear for the club's trip to South Wales.

Trivia - "Courtesy" of Opta, the BBC and various other sites;

• The Swans average almost two goals a game when playing Southampton at home

• Southampton have not won at Swansea since a 1-0 victory in 1962 in the old Division Two.

• This is the 60th meeting between the sides. Southampton have won 27 times, Swansea 18 and there have been 14 draws.

• Leon Britton is set to make his 400th league appearance.

• While Michu has been grabbing headlines, Ricky Lambert has 14 league goals and is the Premier League's top scoring Englishman. 

• Southampton have thrown away more points (29) from winning positions this season than any other team in the top flight.
• In their last 20 home games against teams positioned below them in the table, Swansea have won 12, drawn 8 and lost 0 of these matches.
•  In their last 20 away games, Southampton have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 8 matches against teams positioned above them in the table.
• Southampton have scored in 80% of their last 20 away games.

• Michu has scored a higher percentage of his team's goals than any other player in the Premier League (39%).

Completely guessed lineups

Straight from the "horse's mouth";

Michael Laudrup is clearly after three points, and had some nice things to say about the new Saints boss:

Michael Laudrup. Genial.

"We have six games to go and Saturday is a key game. 

"We have been in the top 10 for a number of weeks now and if we want to stay 
there we need a win on Saturday, particularly with the games we have after that. Beating the big teams is a bonus, but I'd prefer to beat the teams that are our direct rivals. I believe that if we win on Saturday then we will finish in the top 10. 

"He did great at Espanyol as both a player and a manager. When you go to a new country and a new culture, it is always difficult. But he is doing well at Southampton. 

"They have done well recently after getting some important results against the big teams."

Mauricio Pochettino was asked in the week about the possibility of a top-ten finish:

"What I really want to do is win the game on Saturday, which we all do as a team," the Saints manager said. I think if we're able to do that then we'll be able to do that (finish in the top 10), but first of all we need to play the game. Second of all we need to be better than them and third of all we have to score the goals in order to be able to win the game and get the three points that we really want. 

Saints boss Pochettino. Pensive.

"Our energy cannot be really focused on what might happen. We need to focus on the present, the here and now, what is tangible. What is tangible now is getting three points, always training to compete, always training to win and competing to win as well. If we do that, we will be all right but again our focus has to be on something that is real rather than something that might happen. 

"Also overall, our minds have to be focused in a positive way. It is a normal human condition that we think about negative things, that we consider negative thoughts, but why not think about the positives - the good things that might happen? We just have got to focus on doing positive things for ourselves and always try to win games and play and compete in a positive manner."

He went on to state Southampton are trying to instill a similar playing style to the Swans:

"First of all, I want to congratulate Swansea because they have won silverware this season. Of course, I know Laudrup from playing and managing in Spain so I am aware of his qualities - he is a very good manager and has been progressing Swansea. I was reading an interview with him in a Spanish newspaper, where he said that the managers before him in Brendan Rodgers and Roberto Martinez meant Swansea had been playing under the same philosophy for some time now. 

"Swansea's brand of football is quite established, and their way of playing is quite similar to what we're trying to do here at Southampton. I do think that we play with qualities from the English game, but we add to that with our experience of formations and education as continental managers."

Analysis

I've been really impressed by the football Southampton have been playing of late, and I'm a big fan of Ricky Lambert up top. I know it's clichéd but he does seem the traditional centre-forward, and Ashley Williams and Chico Flores will no doubt have to be on top of the game if they're to stop him adding to his already impressive tally. Jay Rodriguez has hit some form too, with three in his last four (including goals against both Chelsea & Liverpool) and with Adam Lallana likely to feature too, the Saints forward line is more than capable of causing the Swans' back four problems.

The return of Leon will be crucial I feel - any time he's not in the team it seems we don't play with the same rhythm. Leon has become the Swans metronome in the centre of midfield, dictating the pace of the game from in front of the back four, and with a milestone 400th league appearance likely he'll be looking to impress after missing the Norwich game. Another player possibly looking to prove a point is Michu. Snubbed by the panel for Player of the Year, the languid Spaniard seemed, to me, like he's coming into a bit of form and hopefully that'll work in the Swans favour tomorrow.

Over the last few games all of the statistics seemed to indicate a deluge of goals and, while that hasn't quite been the case my against-the-grain predictions of 0-0 and 1-0 proved far from the mark. Both teams are playing attractive football and it's almost certain we'll see some goals tomorrow, in what should prove to be the proverbial "feast of football". Fingers crossed eh. Despite the fact that Southampton are currently enjoying a much better run of form than the Swans, it's more than possible that we could be celebrating a home win come 90 minutes. I'm going to go 3-2 to the Swans. Goals goals goals...

Iechyd Da.