100th blog post - thanks for the support!

It seems a long time ago now that I started a blog about the team that I love. I'd often put together "match threads" for various forums over the years (full of stats, generally), but I'd never had an outlet for something a little more creative, somewhere I could ponder all things Swansea City. That led to the creation of theswanseaway.blogspot.co.uk, which quickly became theswanseaway.co.uk, and since then I've posted all manner of things - some which have been well received, and some...not so much.

I do have a tendency to lean towards the statistical side of things, but up until now I've been hindered by two things. One, is that I am really cheap and refuse to pay for my statistics (Yep, that's you EPLIndex), and secondly my laptop is so decrepit it's a miracle it hasn't exploded in my face before now. The noise now emanating from within it resembles a cross between a hoover and an old school dial-up modem, and it's so mind-numbingly pneumatic that I've taken to listening to music on noise-excluding headphones in a bid to drown it out. It doesn't work.

That's all changing today. I've acquired a new computer which will sit on a new desk (thanks ma!), and I'm looking forward to a reduction in computer-based audio levels as much as I'm looking forward to this whole Laudrup "will he won't he" saga being over.

Back to the formation of the site, and when I started doing this in February we were about to face Liverpool in that game prior to the Carling Cup final, but thankfully I soon had something positive to write about - and in truth the article I put up following the cup win remains my favourite post to this day (read it here). Other highlights include an interview with Kevin Johns, a bit of a rant about music in stadia, a "long lost" video of Laudrup starring in a FC Barcelona pop video (featuring some truly outstanding 90's shirts - it's worth a watch just for that) and [another] rant about the lack of technology in football.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I've thoroughly enjoyed running a blog so far. I'm looking forward to a summer of (hopefully) relative peace and quiet given the events of the past few weeks, but that's not really how we do things in Swansea, is it? I'm trying to persuade myself that over the next few weeks we'll be talking more about potential signings than about a potential replacement for Messr Laudrup, but it is still all up in the air so we can't rest easy just yet.

As mentioned in the title, this site would be nothing without the opinions of other fans like myself. The idea behind this site is it's somewhere you can trust in terms of information - if something is my opinion I state it to be so and I do the same with rumours. I've no interest in creating scandal for the sake of page views; I simply like the idea that I can provide a stream of news and opinion which you can read safe in the knowledge that it hasn't been put together simply to sell a paper or attract a few clicks of the mouse. Whether I've achieved that so far isn't for me to decide, but I'm giving it a good go.

Again, thanks for the support - it's appreciated. I look forward to hopefully bringing you some new features this summer including interviews with ex-players and (who knows) possibly even a current player or two. My current angle is I speak Spanish and I'm really hairy, so I'm sure there's some kind of funny photo opportunity with Chico Flores on the cards.

Watch this space.

A profile of Swansea target Diego Capel

Everything you needed to know, and probably some things you didn't

Capel during his time at Sevilla.

With all the recent murmurings surrounding Laudrup's future at the Swans I've been looking for something positive to write about for a while, however in truth it's been a slow week or two in terms of actual news as the club continue to play their cards close to their chest. As I write this Skysports News are reporting that there's been a "further breakdown" between Huw Jenkins and the Swans' manager, however let's deal with that if it comes to it.  

One item of news which has caught my eye of late is the rumour we're looking to sign Spanish flyer Diego Capel. After a brief stint at Barcelona as a youngster, Capel progressed through the youth ranks at Sevilla before getting his break in rather tragic circumstances. During the first game of the 2007/08 season, regular left winger Antonio Puerta collapsed on the pitch, suffering from the first in a series of cardiac arrests that sadly he would fail to recover from. Originally he managed to walk off the pitch, but after collapsing again in the changing room he was rushed to hospital, where he died three days later.

Despite the adverse nature of his promotion to a first-team berth, Capel went on to do well for Sevilla, though goals have always been in short supply throughout his career. In 283 games (in all competitions) he's scored 27 goals, meaning he's just shy of scoring one goal every ten games, but in fairness to him he's very much your traditional winger and has been credited with 45 assists thus far in his career. Quite a respectable number I'm sure you'll agree, and personally I always feel assists aren't credited as often as they should be, so I'd wager good money that over the years he's had a hand in more goals than these stats give him credit for. He was rewarded for his fine form for Sevilla with selection for the national side, providing two assists in a 3-0 friendly win in Denmark which was enough to see him included in the squad for Euro 2008. He started the opening game against Bosnia & Herzegovina but sadly picked up an injury in the days after the game, which ruled him out for the rest of the championship and saw him replaced by Albert Riera (remember him?).

In 2011 after seven years at Sevilla, he made the relatively short hop from Seville (in the south of Spain) to Lisbon in Portugal where he signed for Sporting C.P for an undisclosed fee, and for a player who was once linked with a big money move to Spurs it must seem like his star has fallen slightly. Sporting finished this season in 7th position - hardly imperious and if he received an offer from a Premier League club I'm sure he'd be very interested in hearing what they had to say. Given that the figure floating around seems to be in the region of £4.5million I'd say his signature would be a prudent move on the part of the Swans, and that if he's provided with the right platform Capel can excel. 

Capel this season, in action for Sporting Lisbon.

Despite playing 283 games for Sevilla and Lisbon, he's still just 25 and has plenty of life left in him. If he can kick on he has all the attributes to be a quality addition to the Swans squad; he's fast, can cross (something only Wayne Routledge can claim to have done consistently) and can beat his man, but more importantly for me he's left footed and is a traditional "flyer". At present the wingers tuck in a lot and hit the gap between the centre-back and full-back, but with a player like Capel we'd have a different option which would keep the opposition on their toes. 

With other teams becoming increasingly accustomed to Swansea's gameplan, it's important we vary our play from season to season so that rivals aren't able to develop a system which counteracts the way Swansea play. Everton are an example of what I'm talking about - they seem able to deal with whatever the Swans throw at them and having a different option (hopefully with the acquisition of a striker we'll actually have a few next season) would be a great help if we're struggling to break teams down. Last term Capel played 35 games in all competitions, scoring 5 goals and getting 9 assists - statistics which easily stand up to any of Swansea's wingers (read a statistical comparison of Dyer, Routledge & Hernandez here), although given the disparity between the Premier League and the Portuguese equivalent it's hard to read too much into performance stats. Which is handy, because I can't really find any...

From what I know of Capel, I'm all for this move. He's fast, has played at the highest level and has a pretty impressive collection of titles from his time at Sevilla; he's won the UEFA Cup twice, the European Supercup, the Copa del Rey twice as well as the Supercopa de Espana - I'd wager he'd easily be the Swans most decorated player and with European football on the horizon it could be his experience is viewed as a massive asset which would aid a squad full of players keen to experience Europe for the first time, but short on experience at the highest level. Whether he's brought in or not remains to be seem, and will likely hinge on whether Michael Laudrup is still at Swansea City next year. I for one hope they're both in SA1 come August.

Dyer, Routledge & Hernandez - A statistical comparison

With Laudrup's adoption of the "three wingers" formation this season, I thought it would be interesting to see how they fared when you take a look at their respective statistics. For a start, it's impressive that they all made 30+ appearances - Pablo with 27(+ 3 off the bench), Routledge with 30(+6) and Dyer with 25(+12). It's interesting that while Dyer was clearly fit for the entire of the campaign, he started the least games and seems to have been used as more of an impact sub. In fairness, his style of play is ideally suited to that, as his pace and close control are a nightmare for tiring defensive legs.

Routledge has kicked on again this season, and he has played in a central role before under Rodgers with varying degrees of success. The difference under Laudrup has been the rotation between the three wingers, and it's worked to great effect on many an occasion. I'm still of the belief that until we have some more defensive muscle (Canas?) it's risky playing that system against a high-class 4-4-2 however we did alright at Man Utd, so what do I know?

In the goals department, both Pablo and Dyer have 3 each while Routledge has 5, and as far as assists go Dyer and Routledge both have 4 while Pablo has 6. It seems fans have been quick to lambast Pablo but while his playing style does have a frustratingly lethargic style to it he is effective, and with an improved understanding of his role in the team, and a full pre-season behind him, I think he could be a much livelier player next year.

I looked at stats for "aerial duels won per game" but none of the three win any, it seems (one every five games?), so let's move on to passing stats. Given that, despite differing playing styles they're all expected to provide a similar contribution to the team, it's a fair comparison I think. Routledge plays on average 32.6 passes per game, Dyer plays 32.9 while Pablo weighs in with a whopping 43.3. When you consider his pass success rate is the same as Routledge's at 80.4% (although it's nowhere near Dyer's 86.8%) it again seems some of the criticism against the Spaniard has been unfair, especially when he plays 1.8 "key passes per game" - double the frequency of Dyer (0.9) and slightly more than Routledge (1.6).

Wayne Routledge. 

They all play on average one successful cross every other game (not the best for a trio of wingers...) however a look at successful long balls and again it's Hernandez who comes out on top - he plays 2.5 per game to Dyer's 0.5 and Routledge's 1.5. Dyer attempts the least dribbles per game with 0.7, with Routledge at 0.9 and Pablo attempting a nice even one per game. A pattern is definitely developing here. Routledge attempts 0.8 shots per game, Dyer 1.4 and Hernandez 1.6, so in front of goal the Spaniard is again the busier of the trio.

Ball retention next. I'm using statistics from "Whoscored.com" so forgive me if some of the terminology is a bit "whack" - the two terms they use for losing the ball are "turnovers" (losing the ball through poor control etc) and "dispossessed"(tackled without trying to dribble past the opponent).

Dyer is "turned over" 1.5 times per game, and dispossessed with the same regularity, while Routledge is only turned over 1.3 times per game, however he's mugged slightly more often at 1.7 times per game. Guess what? Pablo comes out on top again. He's dispossessed 0.8 times per game and only turned over 1.3 times. I'm the first to admit I've been critical of Pablo in the past, but it seems he must be doing a lot of things I'm not seeing, as you can't fake statistics like this over the course of a season.

In defense it's no real surprise that Nathan Dyer makes the most tackles, with 1.3 per game (compared to Routledge's 1.1 and Pablo's 0.9), however interceptions is another story. Clearly a footballing brain makes a difference, as Pablo makes 1.5 interceptions per game - over double Dyer's 0.7 and treble Routledge's 0.4. He makes the most clearances too (albeit marginally) with 0.6 per game (Dyer has 0.4 and Routledge 0.5) while all three are dribbled past with roughly the same frequency (0.6 times per game for Pablo & Routledge, and 0.4 for Dyer).

Pablo scores the equaliser against Chelsea

It seems there's a recurring theme throughout here. All three wingers have performed admirably this season, but it's impossible to ignore the fact that Pablo has received a rougher ride from fans than he possibly should have. With time on his side I'm sure he'll go on to win over all but the most embittered of fans, as he's clearly a class act.

Worth mentioning is Roland Lamah, who has looked tidy when we've seen him but hasn't really had a chance to make an impact. He should have a goal to his name but the linesman incorrectly ruled his effort against West Brom out, however his loan period runs until next summer so we've time to assess him yet.

With four options at wing already, it's unlikely we'll sign anyone to play in that position surely? If someone outstanding comes up, then maybe, but with decent cover out wide central midfield seems more of a priority.

How long until the transfer window opens?...

Swansea v Fulham - Match preview, team news, statistics & analysis

The Match

Swansea are looking to end the season with bang after an impressive performance last time out in an emotionally charged affair with Manchester United. A number of improved performances have seen the Swans take a point from Man City, beat Wigan away and push United close, so they'll be looking to take three points from Fulham to end the season on a high. The Swans are already guaranteed 9th place, however a win over Fulham (and a West Brom loss to Man Utd)  would see the Swans finish in 8th place - a remarkable result given pre-season apprehensions.

Fulham have hardly produced inspiring football of late, however with Premier League safety assured they're likely to play with a freedom that's been missing over recent weeks. They've lost six of their last seven games however, and Fulham fans will hope their players have one last effort in them as they attempt to bring some points home from South Wales. The Londoners haven't kept a clean sheet since March though, so goals are a distinct possibility this Sunday.

Last time out

Fulham 1 - 2 Swansea City

The Swans came out on top at Craven Cottage thanks to goals from Danny Graham and Jonathan De Guzman. Graham gobbled up a rebound after Nathan Dyer had forced David Stockdale into a save (we wanted to buy him once, remember?), before Pablo capitalised on a poor clearance from the keeper to feed in De Guzman, who put the Swans two up. A late goal from Bryan Ruiz saw Fulham pile the pressure on late on, but the Swans were good value for the three points.

Prior Form (most recent at top)

Premier League                 Man Utd        2 - 1  Swansea

Premier League                 Wigan           2 - 3  Swansea
Premier League                 Swansea      0 - 0   Man City   
Premier League                 Chelsea         2 - 0  Swansea
Premier League                 Swansea      0 - 0   Southampton

Premier League                Fulham          1 - 3  Liverpool
Premier League                Fulham          2 - 4  Reading
Premier League                Everton           1 - 0  Fulham        

Premier League                Fulham          0 - 1  Man Utd
Premier League                Fulham          0 - 3  Man Utd

Team News

Swansea welcomed Chico Flores and Michu back against Manchester United, while Neil Taylor made his first start since overcoming his ankle injury. Ki Sung-Yeung (dead leg) and Michel Vorm (concussion) should both return to the squad after missing the Wigan game.

Fulham will be without Keiron Richardson after he came off 15 minutes into the Liverpool game last week, suffering from a hamstring injury, while Simon Davies (thigh), Ashkan Dejagah (ankle) and Mahamadou Diarra (knee) all look set to miss out.


Trivia (courtesy of various other sites);

• Swansea have won 35%, drawn 45% and lost 20% of their last 20 home games.

• Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their last 20 home games.

• In their last 20 home games against teams positioned below them in the table, Swansea have won 12, drawn 8 and lost 0 of these matches

• Fulham have won 20%, drawn 35% and lost 45% of their last 20 away games.

• Fulham have conceded in 80% of their last 20 away games.

• Fulham have failed to score in 45% of their last 20 away games.

• Fulham have lost 6 of their last 7 games, have currently lost their last five games in a row.

• Swansea have beaten Fulham in all three of their Premier League meetings, conceding just one goal.

• Swansea are one of only two teams this season yet to win a penalty (alongside Tottenham). Charlton in 2004-05 were the last side to go a whole Premier League season without winning a penalty.

• Just 11% of Swansea's goals (five of 47) have come from set-pieces this season, which is the lowest ratio in the Premier League.

• Swansea have scored the highest percentage of goals (70%) in the second half of matches in the league this season.

• This is the 63rd meeting between the sides. Fulham have won 30 times, Swansea 22 and there have been 10 draws.

• Fulham have lost five successive Premier League games. They have only lost six in a row once before in the competition - between February and March 2002.

• Eleven of Dimitar Berbatov's 14 league goals for Fulham have come before half-time. Only Clint Dempsey has scored more goals (17 last season) in a single Premier League season for the club.

• They have thrown away 23 points from winning positions and gained just five from losing positions this season.
• Only Robin van Persie (12) has scored more goals at home than Michu (11) in the Premier League this season.

Completely guessed lineups

Straight from the "horse's mouth";

Michael Laudrup was effusive in his analysis of his debut season in the Premier League:

"We are 100 per cent sure of finishing in the top ten, things will have to go very badly for us not to be ninth and we even have a possibility of finishing eighth. Hopefully Manchester United can do us a favour and if we then beat Fulham, we would be eighth.  

"That would be like winning the championship — that's the maximum for us when you look at the seven clubs above. We can say now that we will probably end up first or second in what I would call our league. When you add that to the cup win, that's an amazing season."

Martin Jol responded to speculation about prospective movers and shakers in the Fulham camp ahead of the close season:

"If people make up a little story and I speak about new players coming in, of course you need a little bit of money. They associate us with the chairman and he has to give us the funds, but we are healthy club. We will try to get some players in so there is no story. I am very happy. It is 10 minutes from my house, my girl is going to school and she loves it there. She had her first competitive match yesterday against another school and they beat them. She was happy, I am happy, the missus is happy and hopefully I can make the fans happy again as well."

Analysis

The time has come for the Swans to play the last match of the season. The exploits of Michael Laudrup and his band of unassuming players have surpassed what any of us would have expected, and with the legendary Dane set to continue as Swans boss next year and European football to boot there's plenty of reasons for Swansea fans to look forward to the coming campaign.

Swansea seem to have turned the corner after a poor run of results, and will be looking at this as a more than winnable fixture. They haven't won at home since beating Newcastle 1-0 (thanks to a late Luke Moore goal) on the 2nd of March, however three of the four games which have passed at the Liberty since then have been Arsenal, Spurs and Man City, so to criticise would, as I've said before, possibly be a little on the harsh side. That being said, performances had dipped and Laudrup admitted that we'd possibly been "over-performing" earlier in the season, so it's pleasing to see performance levels increase once again as the Swans look to finish the season with a bang.

A lot of people I've spoken to seem to think this could be a bit of a dead rubber, however I'm not sure. Both teams play an attractive brand of football, but in all honesty there are quite a few players in the Fulham squad who I know next-to-nothing about. The obvious threats will be Bryan Ruiz, Dimitar Berbatov and Alexander Kacaniklic - if the Swans can starve this trio of possession it will go a long way to assuring victory. I fancy the Swans to have too much for Fulham, especially with a boisterous home crowd eager to see a home win for the first time in two and a half months.

Question marks remain about Vorm and Ki's fitness - I'm hoping the Korean is fit enough to play some part but it may well be that De Guzman is selected ahead of him as he seems to have been preferred of late. I'm hoping Gerhard Tremmel retains his place, he's been excellent for us and deserves another start after missing out on games once Vorm regained fitness following an earlier groin injury. Whether the Dutchman is fit after suffering concussion in the Wigan game remains to be seen, but whoever lines up between the sticks is likely to put in a quality shift so we don't have to worry too much there.

On paper, I'd have thought that defensively Fulham would be alright given the calibre of both Brede Hangeland and Aaron Hughes at centre-back, however a run of five straight defeats (and 6 in 7) clearly indicates something is up in South West London. Hopefully they won't find a way of remedying their own bad run as a win for the Swans would continue a recent upward curve which saw us hold Man City to a draw and beat Wigan away in a game which saw Wigan display just why they were relegated.

Shocking defending aside, you've got to put the chances away when they're presented to you and the Swans did just that. With mid-table rivals West Brom entertaining Man Utd the Baggies need to win to guarantee they'll hold on to 8th place. A Swans win would see them finish the season on 49 points - two more than they managed last season, and a win would also see them finish the season with a goal difference of 0 or better. Quite a feat for a club the size of the Swans.

There is of course the possibility that the game could develop into something approaching a lethargic chess match, but I don't think the crowd would stand for that. It's the end of the season, and everyone will be in party mode - goals are required. Can the Swans deliver? I think so. If we go with the three wingers I can't see Fulham being able to keep us out, however I also can't see us keeping a clean sheet (Hangeland from a corner?). I'm going to be in the North Stand for the first time tomorrow - it'll be interesting to see what kind of noise the travelling fans generate. If the Swans score early, they could be in for a torrid afternoon.

Let's hope it's sunny at least...

Iechyd Da.