Warren Smith gives us some theories of his own...
An essayist named Nassim Nicholas Taleb once developed a theory called Black Swan Theory, which is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
This detail serves no purpose for my post other than the fact that I thought it allowed me a very small correlation to my proposed “Swan Theory.” Swan Theory is the compilation of theories developed by the fans of our lovely Swansea City to explain some of the decisions that the football club makes that will later prove to be fruitful and full of wonderful foresight (or, at least, that seems to be Huw Jenkins’ track record thus far).
These theories in no way can be claimed as perfectly credible, but can offer our fans a few ideas that may allow them to be at peace while we wait for the final result to be displayed.
Some examples in the past could be that we made the Sigurdsson trade because he is just THAT good or the Danny Graham sale because he is NOT so good (and came at a wonderful price). Both of these theories if made by one of us fans would have proved to be legitimate.
So anyways, as we approach the middle of the season with many recent controversies and events to speak of, I thought I would weigh in with a few Swan Theories of my own. We shall see if any of them ring true down the road.
We are not appealing the Sigurdsson red card in order to allow him to rest.
The current most popular theory about this decision is due to the price of appealing, which could be true, but with our performances this season and our current economical welfare I cannot imagine this is the full story. Monk mentioned the fact that Sigurdsson had been playing with a bruised foot, and I believe that this event simply gives him an excuse to allow Siggy a well-deserved break.
Don’t get me wrong, Gylfi has still been one of our best players despite this injury nuisance (if not the best, I mean that last goal was superb!), but considering how we are almost guaranteed safety, I believe it is a way for Monk to not feel pressured into pushing Sigurdsson through more pain and allow him to take a few weeks to recover, so that he may come back stronger and better than before.
The Bony money is to save for spending in the summer.
Let me preface this theory by saying I do not believe that we will throw money around this summer and I do believe a large portion of this sale is for development of facilities and the stadium as Monk has said. However, the main purpose behind this theory is to remind fans that Huw Jenkins and the board have always been focused on building for the future.
Although we started strong this year, the club knows how we can build towards consistently competing for the top half of the table, and if we do not happen to reach this goal this year, we have still reached safety for another season, which is the ultimate goal. I believe Jenkins is focused for the years to come, even though he would surely enjoy immediate success.
Our U21s are building to compete with the likes of Southampton.
After reading Scott’s recent report on the youth team, constantly hearing about Garry Monk’s willingness to play youngsters, and consistently following the U21 matches through my twitter feed with the expectation of a victory, I would like to theorize that our board is truly working towards building a youth program that is comparable to teams such as Southampton.
There have been many subtle buys in the youth department (not to mention a few decent products already here), and that leads me to think that Jenkins and the board are working towards building this strong foundation that can either lead to great products for our team or possible future revenue streams. From my impressions, Llewellyn seems like a very strong youth coach and I believe there is a great future for our youth program, which has already brought out a few solid products (Ben Davies specifically).
We keep buying from Spurs because they have solid players that are not used properly.
Recently, Jenkins and Levy seem to be having some fun trading players back and forth, and thus far Jenkins has appeared to have the upper hand as Carroll and Sigurdsson have each had a positive impact. I must admit that I was not exactly ecstatic to sign Kyle Naughton for 5 million pounds after everything I had heard and seen of him. However, I believe Jenkins and Monk know something that we may not about Tottenham.
It has been often mentioned by Kevin DeVries on the EPL Roundtable podcast that the Spurs have a litany of good players, but a lack of many exceptional, “Big 6” type players. I think that Monk and Jenkins recognize the fact that there remain many talented players at Spurs that may be hurt by the over-sized dressing room and lack of consistent game time. A player like Naughton who is constantly rotating in and out of the 18 during his time there may be soured due to the constant competition for game time, shots to his footballing ego, and inability to truly prove his worth. Monk and Jenkins see this opportunity to benefit from his ambitions to once again prove himself and use this tactic to bring out an even better player than before.
In conclusion, these theories are simply educated conjecture, but I do hope you enjoy them and throw out a few of your own as I still cannot decide what to make behind the brilliance Jenkins will prove to be displaying in the handling of Gomis. Either way, as we move through the rest of the season and on to the next summer, surely some of these theories will prove right or wrong.
Thanks to Warren for his latest piece - follow him on Twitter @WarrenSmith21.