Liverpool vs Swansea Match Preview

vs

                     Liverpool FC                                           Swansea City FC

Sunday 17/02/13

15:00pm K.O.

Anfield

Referee TBC

Welcome

Welcome to my inaugural match preview at it's new home. I previously posted "match preview threads" on a forum called Not606 (archive of these available here), however the amount of mentalists on there constantly bickering made it about as much fun as watching Stoke play. After almost a year off, it seems like a good time to give myself a kick up the arse and start waxing lyrical about the Swans again, and let's be honest, most people are currently running out of superlatives for Michael Laudrup's men.

Sunday's match sees ex-Swans boss Brendan Rodgers looking to mastermind his Liverpool side's first win over the Swans in the Premier League. A credible 0-0 draw and a 1-0 home win last season, followed by another 0-0 draw at the Liberty this past winter mean Liverpool are still looking to secure maximum points against the Swans for the first time, and anything other than a victory this weekend will heap more pressure on Brendan Rodgers. A Swans win would leave us four points ahead of Liverpool with 27 matches played, and recent murmurings about Borini & Allen being "terrible business at 27 million" may become more insistent if Swansea's much less expensively assembled squad come away from Anfield with points.

The Match

Liverpool come into this game in anything but good form. No wins in their last five games, this run includes a 2-0 home reverse against West Brom and that 3-2 loss away at Oldham in the FA Cup fourth round, however it's worth noting that four of their last five games have been played away from home. By the time we kick off at 3pm, Liverpool will be almost a calendar month without a win, so no doubt the pressure is firmly on the home side as they look to gain their first victory since their bi-annual 5-0 win over Norwich.

Swansea seemed, as put by some of the players, "back to their best" against QPR, and few could argue with that if they witnessed the thorough dismantling (for the second time this season) of a team who, pre-season, most neutral fans would have had down to easily finish above the Swans. Early season soundbites laden with modesty regarding our "40 point target" have now started to give way to more lofty aspirations, with Laudrup stating once we've hit that landmark he will re-assess and set a new target. Results over the last month have been mixed, but the Swans do seem to have a resurgent sense of confidence about them and are a good shout at some of the odds I've seen kicking around.

Prior Form (Last 5 Games)

Europa League       Zenit St Petersburg 2-0 Liverpool
Premier League      Liverpool 0-2 West Brom
Premier League      Man City 2-2 Liverpool
Premier League      Arsenal 2-2 Liverpool
FA Cup 4th Round  Oldham 3-2 Liverpool



Premier League Swansea 4-1 QPR
Premier League West Ham 1-0 Swansea
Premier League      Sunderland 0-0 Swansea
League Cup S/F Swansea 0-0 Chelsea (agg 2-0)
Premier League Swansea 3-1 Stoke

Team News

Liverpool will be without Martin Kelly, and are sweating on the fitness of Daniel Sturridge, who has been impressive since arriving from Chelsea. Sturridge should be fit after missing the Zenit game through being cup tied, however if he fails to recover in time it may fall on the shoulders of ex-Swan Fabio Borini to partner Luis Suarez if Rodgers decides to play two strikers. Other than that, it seems they have a clean bill of health, and new signing Philippe Coutinho could well make his full debut.

Swansea are still without Neil Taylor, however the main cause for concern is who will replace the injured Chico Flores, who had started to forge a defensive partnership of real fortitude with Ashley Williams. Kyle Bartley & Garry Monk will be looking to fill the void left by the hirsute Spaniard, and whoever does feature will have the opportunity to showcase their ability ahead of the Carling Cup Final against Bradford next weekend. Leon Britton is still nursing an ankle injury picked up at his old club West Ham, so it remains to be seen if he'll make the starting XI, or if he'll have to make do with a place on the bench..

Trivia - "Courtesy" of Opta

• Liverpool have not scored against Swansea City since they were promoted to the Barclays Premier League last season; drawing blanks in all three previous league meetings (D2 L1). 

• Liverpool have won five of their last seven home games in the league; losing the other two. 

• Liverpool are the only club yet to enjoy a victory over a side in the top half of the division this season (D7 L7). 

• Swansea have won just one of their last six league matches on the road (D3 L2).

• Only Swansea City (92%; 35 of 38) and Newcastle (82%; 28 of 34) have scored a higher proportion of their goals from open play than Liverpool this season (77%; 34 of 44). 

• Swansea have dropped a league low two points from leading positions this season; having gone on to win nine of the 10 games they have taken the lead in this season. 

• No side has conceded fewer goals in the opening 30 minutes of matches this season than Swansea City (five; level with Stoke City and Tottenham Hotspur). 

• Liverpool have benefitted from four own goals scored by their opponents this season; more than any other team in the top-flight. 

• Liverpool are the first team in Europe's top five leagues to hit 500 shots this season (503).

• The Swans have never won in 11 league matches at Anfield (D3, L8).

• The last time Swansea lost to Liverpool was an 8-0 away defeat in an FA Cup third-round replay in January 1990. It remains Swansea's joint-highest defeat.

• The Reds are currently on an eight-game winless streak in home games played on a Sunday.

• Only 10 of the 29 league goals Swansea have conceded this season have been in away games.

• Michu has scored five headers in the league this season, more than any other player.

Completely guessed lineups

          Liverpool

          Reina

               Johnson   Agger    Carragher (C)   J. Enrique

         Stirling      Gerrard        Coutinho         Downing 

              Suarez       Sturridge

      Michu

Hernandez        Routledge         Dyer

De Guzman          Ki S-Y

Davies   Williams(C)   Bartley   Rangel

   Vorm

   Swansea City

(I apologise for the crudity of the team lineups. I'll develop a flashier method by the cup final, I promise...)

Analysis

Well this game isn't short of talking points, is it? The obvious thing to start with would be the history between Rodgers and the Swans, but that's been done to death by the media so I'm going to skip right past that - save for mentioning that it really is testament to the job Michael Laudrup has done that coming into the game the Swans are above Liverpool in the league table.

Liverpool started the season seemingly content to rebuild. All the sounds coming out of Anfield were of consolidation this season, and the acquisition of Rodgers and his subsequent signings seemed to indicate that the Liverpool hierarchy were indeed happy to let Brendan build a team in his mould, which, it was unanimously agreed, couldn't be done without sacrificing what Liverpool would normally consider a "good" league position come the end of May. The season started slowly, and for a while I have to admit that I was worried for Rodgers future, but they do seem to have turned a corner and results have improved, even if they haven't put together a sequence of wins for the entire season.

The problem came when results did start to improve, Rodgers seemed to raise the bar and started talking of a top four finish. Considering the start to the season they had, this was, in my opinion, foolhardy and unnecessary. He has the time he needs to build a team - so go about doing it, and don't heap unneeded pressure on yourself. With Liverpool close to, but not quite within touching distance of, European football, a win for the reds would give confidence heading into the climax of the season, however a Swans win could well lead to a red mist descending (no pun intended) and claims that, rebuilding or no rebuilding, the results gained by Rodgers simply aren't good enough given the money he's spent.

Swansea, meanwhile, seem to have endured a "blip" where Michu's lack of goals neatly coincides with (or perhaps explains?) a run of poorer results than perhaps some fans expected. Before the QPR game, Swansea had actually failed to score in four of their past five fixtures, so seeing the languid Spaniard's name on the scoresheet on the weekend will no doubt be just as pleasing for Laudrup as the result itself. Huw Jenkins had stated the Swans wouldn't allow Danny Graham to leave until a replacement had been signed, however this didn't end up happening, so the Swans look likely to play out most of their games this season without a "recognised" striker on the field - although how someone who has scored 15 goals (and played the majority of the season as a striker) can still get tagged as someone who doesn't play there is beyond me.

In fact, a friend quipped that the sale of Graham was possibly a subtle ploy by Laudrup to force Michu to play up top! While I don't necessarily think that's the case, I like the idea, especially since Michu dropping back into midfield behind Schecter/Graham 6 or 7 games ago seemed to directly coincide with the start of the Swans fruitless spell in front of goal. Thankfully, that now seems over, and I'd say it doesn't matter whether you think you're a striker - if you can score 15 PL goals in 25 games playing for the Swans, you're a top quality striker.

As for the game itself - I'm hoping Laudrup goes with a tactic I'm a massive fan of - playing all three "wingers" in a rotating second line of attack. Pablo Hernandez, Wayne Routledge, and an ever-improving Nathan Dyer are all nimble, quick, and have an eye for both a pass and a shot, and on their day will give any defence problems - especially when led by Michu. It worked successfully against QPR, however whether Laudrup will feel confident enough to name a winger in a central role over a traditional central midfielder is difficult to call - there is an argument that this tactic will only ever be effective when the Swans know they will dominate possession - which may not be the case against an increasingly Rodgers-ised Liverpool.

Whoever does line up, they'll likely have a sturdy backline opposing them, and will have to be at their tricky best to get past the physicality and "gamesmanship" of Jamie Carragher and Daniel Agger, coupled with the pace out wide of Johnson & Enrique. It'll be important for the Swansea widemen to track back, given their counterparts' love of getting forward, especially considering Rodgers likes his fullbacks to bomb on too. In midfield, it's likely we'll see Philippe Coutinho at some point, and moving swiftly on (in case I accidentally end up talking about Stewart Downing) Steven Gerrard can still claim, I believe, to be the only outfield player in midfield or attack to play every minute of every game - and given his advancing years and injury records that effort deserves applause. In the centre for the Swans De Guzman and Ki continue to impress, and with De Guzman gaining his first full Dutch cap in the recent international break it just goes to show the level the Swansea midfield is performing at. Leon Britton missing is a blow, but by no means as big a blow as it was at the beginning of the season, such is the understanding the Swans other two first choice central midfielders have forged.

Luis Suarez has, for me, worked his expensively sponsored football boots off this year in an effort to shed his reputation for doing just about everything that people hate. As a footballer, the man is incredible and it's a joy to see him playing with a renewed vigour, and, more important, honesty, as if he hadn't done this he'd have run the risk of ruining his reputation before the world had really seen what he can do. Charged with stopping him will be Ash Williams and one of Garry Monk/Kyle Bartley. I'd lump for Bartley purely for his speed over 10 yards - Suarez's close control and dribbling are second to none, and couple that with Raheem Stirling tricking his way into the box, and Stewart Downing running in a straight line really, really fast, I'd say a younger pair of legs are the order of the day - but it's unlikely we'll know who'll get the nod until just before kickoff.

While Liverpool have a squad filled with household names, you get the feeling that, like any other high profile game the Swans play, they go into games focused firmly on playing the game their way. The Swansea Way.

Iechyd Da.

Scott

Prediction

Given previous results, I'd say (predictably) that if we can stop Luis Suarez scoring (or ideally getting the ball!) we can get a result here. I fancy a Swans win, but I'm going to call this one 1-1.