De Guzman vs Ki - a statistical comparison

With the Swans rumoured to have agreed a deal for Real Betis midfielder Jose Canas, it appears there will be increased competition in the Swansea midfield next year, and with De Guzman yet to sign permanently, I thought it would be interesting to have a look at some statistics to see what kind of effect Ki & JDG have had on the team.

Ki Sung-Yueng

It would be easy to just go with the obvious and leave it there. Ki still tops the Premier League charts in terms of passing accuracy, while JDG is the Swans' second top scorer, so you'd be forgiven for thinking that Ki is obviously a more defensive player while JDG has excelled in attack, and while both are partially true I feel there's more going on than meets the eye.

Of late, I've felt De Guzman's performances haven't been up to the standard he set earlier in the season, and some fans are questioning his work-rate - saying that he doesn't seem to harry the opposition as much as he should. While I can't say I feel that's true, I do think that De Guzman drifts around the field too much when playing alongside Leon (or whoever else) in a deeper midfield role, and that in turn creates problems in terms of defensive organisation.

When you play football like the Swans do, being heavily reliant on team shape to maintain a solid defensive footing, it's imperative that the defensive midfielders hold their position; Leon seemed to be dragged around the field an awful lot against Southampton and given how out of character it appeared it must have been to do with those around him distorting the team shape. When Michu plays attacking midfield as opposed to centre-forward I feel this exacerbates the problem, but I do feel that when Ki plays alongside Leon it gives the Swans a lot more balance.

At present, I still prefer a midfield trio of Leon, Ki, and JDG in front of them, but if there was only one "defensive" midfield berth to play for, should it go to Ki or De Guzman? With all stats only relating to PL games, first up let's look at ball retention. Ki  has completed 92.5% of his passes (1438/1554 - 6th in Europe in terms of passing accuracy) against De Guzman's 88.4% (1527/1727) and while JDG has played more passes in total he's also started nine more games than his Korean counterpart. Ki averages 55.5 passes completed a game to De Guzman's 54.4, so not much to choose from there, but it would seem that, given the smaller amount of starts enjoyed by the Korean, he's a little busier in terms of moving the ball around the field.

Jonathan De Guzman

De Guzman has clearly created more in attack, with six assists to Ki's two, and they average 1.6 and 1 "key pass(es)" [excuse the pun] respectively - in fairness to Ki though he's consistently been employed in a more defensive role than he'd previously been used to and I feel his natural game would see him play further forward which would in turn see him create more opportunities (as well as finally getting his first goal). A demonstration of this was when well placed (again) against Southampton, Ki opted to pass instead of shoot - as anyone who's watched Youtube videos of him can testify, the guy likes to shoot and has scored lots of goals, and I think his reluctance to shoot is due to the distinct awareness that to comply with his role in the team, he's to retain possession in situations whereby otherwise he would have had a pop.

Ki averages 5.9 successful long balls per game against JDG's 3.8, further drilling home the accuracy with which the Korean dispatches the ball. I love watching Ki play as everything seems to be done with an exaggerated movement in an effort to connect perfectly, and I think sometimes it's easy to mistake it for the Korean being ponderous - the stats show this isn't the case as he's only dispossessed 0.9 times per game (against De Guzman's 1.2) and attempts the same amount of dribbles as the man on loan from Villareal (0.4). Interestingly, the Dutchman wins the ball back twice as often, with 0.9 "turnovers" per game (as opposed to Ki's 0.4), but they attempt an almost identical amount of shots (Ki with 1.4, JDG with 1.5).

Ki manages over twice as many clearances per game (1.3 to 0.6), while they both complete the same amount of interceptions (1.2) and almost the same amount of tackles (Ki with 1.2 & JDG with 1.3). I think this is starting to show that some fans view that JDG is (marginally) more combative is possibly far from the mark, as it seems in terms of defensive contribution Ki  is just as effective. It obviously can't be ignored that with 5 goals and 6 assists, De Guzman has been massively more potent in attack when compared with Ki's 0 goals and 2 assists, but I do feel that if Ki had enjoyed a more attacking role throughout the season the figures would be a lot more even. As mentioned above, I get the distinct impression that Ki's natural game is more attacking than we're currently seeing, and I'm hoping the arrival of Canas remedies this, as I'd love to see him start banging them in from 30 yards.

Should we sign De Guzman permanently? Reports had previously put the price at £8million, but recently it seems that's been revised and £5million would be nearer the mark. Originally I thought that still sounded a lot, given that we're likely to have paid his wages all year and, possibly, a fee to take him on loan in the first place, but after speaking with a friend I came to the conclusion that if there was a midfielder of JDG's quality at a Premier League club who were getting relegated, and he'd scored 5 goals and got 6 assists that season, I'd be saying we should sign him up, especially if the asking price is only £5million. For a central midfielder who can clearly cut it in the Premier League, and is likely to kick on again next season, that seems a bit of a bargain, and with plenty of games to go round next year both Ki and JDG could enjoy lots of playing time in the CAM role - whether that happens though is another thing.

For now, I'd like to see Leon and Ki deep, with JDG ahead of them, but if we sign Canas (and he's as good as we hope) then at present I'd still like to see Ki given a run in the team in a creative attacking role. Sure, it'll take a while for him to get out of the "pass, pass, pass" train of thought but I think ultimately it'll be worth it. Check out the video above for a demonstration of what I mean. In a cop out similar to the one at the end of the Neil Taylor v Ben Davies comparison, I'm going to say that realistically they are both important members of the Swansea squad who we can expect to improve next year, and I'd love to see De Guzman sign permanently. For £5million, anyway...

A profile of Swansea target Jose Canas

Everything you needed to know, and maybe some stuff you didn't. 

Swansea target Jose Canas.

It seems like a long, long time ago now. When Michael Laudrup took charge in the summer of 2012 we were all wondering, given his extensive contact list and reputation, what players he'd be able to persuade to join him at the Liberty Stadium. So far, nearly all of his signings have been hits; Jonathan De Guzman and Michu both being plucked from La Liga and Chico Flores from Serie A. Pablo Hernandez, too, joined from Valencia and, while his form hasn't been as consistent as we would have hoped, he's shown he's a player of real quality. Dwight Tiendalli has been, while unspectacular, effective in defence, and the promotion of Ben Davies through the ranks is something other manager's would possibly have shied away from. All of this leads us to believe Laudrup has the ability to spot which players will suit "The Swansea Way", even if he hasn't seen them in action over an extended time period.

Jose Canas

The rumours that we are interested in Seville-born Jose Canas originally surfaced before Christmas, with the earliest rumours appearing online in early September. It's clear Laudrup has had his eye on the hirsute midfielder for a while, although there's no evidence of a concrete bid before the January transfer window. As it drew close, rumours intensified, and we seemed set to see Canas strutting his stuff in SA1 before the end of January - however that was not to be the case. The Swans were rumoured to have offered £750,000 up front (due to the fact that Canas' contract is expiring in the summer and he announced in the wake of Swansea's interest he would not be renewing his current deal) but knowing Huw his opening gambit was somewhat lower. For the time being at least, this seems to have bitten the Swans in the derriere. It's also been rumoured that Canas agreed a contract with the Swans, and then offered to take a lower weekly wage so that the Swans would up their offer, in an effort to secure the move in January (link here). The problem seems to lie with Real Betis' precarious financial state. Heavily in debt, if they sold Canas for a million Euros, they'd only actually see 300,000 - as the rest would go to corporation tax, the Spanish tax authorities, and the club's debtors.  

A product of the Real Betis youth system, he isn't the first Canas to play for Los Verdiblancos. His uncle Juan José played 228 games for the club, and lifted the Copa Del Rey as captain. He also returned after a brief sortie elsewhere late in his playing career to work behind the scenes at Betis for two years, after retiring at the age of 36. Nephew Jose (full name José Cañas Ruiz-Herrera) got his debut for the first team after impressing in the "C" and "B" sides in the 2008/2009 season. It came in the form of a seven minute cameo at the tail end of a 2-0 home loss to Atletico Madrid, and Canas would have been forgiven for being disheartened temporarily, as the Andalusians were ultimately relegated at the seasons end, and Canas had to make do with another season playing for the club's B side. 2010-2011 though was a different season. Canas broke into the first team, although slowly. Four starts in a total of fifteen appearances was reason to be positive however, as Real Betis returned to La Liga as champions. 

Jose Canas: I like this. 

A solid first season back in La Liga saw Canas featuring 22 times as he started to cement his position in the team. They ended up finishing 13th, a respectable finish for a club who didn't spend a huge amount of money in the wake of being promoted. This season, however, Betis have kicked on and find themselves occupying sixth place in the league. A check of some stats and Jose Canas has made 21 appearances (1 a sub) with a pass completion rate of 80.6% (712/883 passes completed). An average of 42 passes a match would indicate he's a player who'd suit the Swans down to the ground, as that number would likely increase given the Swans growing mastery of the "tika-taka" style. He's only got one assist this season, though, and plays 0.3 killer passes a game, apparently. One every three games then. Is he starting to sound like a hairy Spanish Leon to anyone else yet? He does, however, average 3.3 successful long balls per game (70/104 in total) so with the Swans finally seeming to possess an aerial threat in Michu, this could be very handy. He has a shot every other game, and, sedately, a dribble every five games. It seems this is one very disciplined defensive midfielder - he's made 1.9 tackles, two clearances, and 3 interceptions a game so far this season, further strengthening my "Spanish Leon" theory. 

As mentioned, it seemed the clubs and player were close to an agreement in January. First, coach Pepe Mel (the Spanish Mal Pope?) came out and announced Canas would be leaving at the end of his contract:

“I have 100 per cent security that he will not continue beyond June 30. I know he is committed to the club and his teammates, he will give 100 per cent whilst he is here. In fact tomorrow he will play. I am convinced that he is going to give 100 per cent, he is a Betico and was brought up here.” Pepe Mel

One thing to note from that quote is that Canas is clearly used to a club with a strong sense of family - Betis are one of those institutions which derive a greater sense of togetherness from the fact that they are not, and will never be, on a par with teams such as Barca and Real Madrid.

Next, it was announced by Mel that Canas would be going nowhere for the time being:

"It has been decided, unless Swansea say something different, that Canas stays here until June 30. As we saw in Zaragoza (last Friday), he is a committed player, he gives everything and he stood out as he always does. We left him out for the cup game as a precaution, but he will train as normal on Thursday" Pepe Mel

It seems that after Canas put in another strong performance the club re-assessed how much they needed the defensive midfielder to maintain their lofty league status this season - a string of impressive performances (as detailed here in an excellent blog/source of stats) towards Christmas possibly meant that while it would naturally draw attention to the player, it would also mean he'd be staying at the club until the end of the season - new contract or not.

I'm aware of the old adage that "you can prove anything with a statistic" and that's true - however it does seem that Jose Canas is very much in the Swansea City mould. With a section of the Swansea support having cried out for extra defensive muscle in midfield for some time now, it seems they may be about to get their wish. With some reports even suggesting a deal is already in place for his signature, it now remains a matter of time before we find out whether Canas will indeed sign in the summer. Hopefully he won't do a Sigurdsson...


"Vital statistics"

Age: 25
Height: 1.77m (5'10")

Career stats lifted straight from Wikipedia
Years	Team	Apps†	(Gls)†
2005–2007	Betis C
2006–2010	Betis B	79	(4)
2009–	Betis	54	(0)