I don't normally do sensationalist headlines, but I couldn't resist that one...
A statistical comparison of Michel Vorm, Gerhard Tremmel, and new goalkeeper Lukas Fabianski
I tried to start writing this piece yesterday. Honest. Not even a barbecue, plentiful alcohol and interesting conversation could stop me - I came home raring to go and parked my arse in front of my decrepit laptop, fully intending to immerse myself in a world of goalkeeping-related numbers. That was, until I realised that goalkeeping stats are more or less non-existent on the internet.
Thankfully, Twitter and Google came to the rescue. A couple of exhaustive searches, and a couple of cheeky tweets to chaps who know a lot more about stats than I do meant that eventually I was in a position to make some kind of relevant comparison between the three Swansea goalkeepers, and if I'm honest the level of stats used in this article is way better than anything I've previously produced. Not that I can claim credit for researching any of the stats mind - that credit must go to Paul Riley (@footballfactman) & @GoalImpact, who very kindly agreed to provide some interesting stats. I also found some comprehensive stats on www.barriesview.com, so if I can't infer some kind of conclusion by the end of this piece I should probably just give up this blog lark.
Stats then. Firstly, Paul Riley provided these graphics, showing our goalkeeper's average save percentage, depending on where the shots faced originated from. There's also a graphic showing the Premier League average, to give it some context.
These stats are based on performances in the Premier League over the last four years - though Fabianski's lack of real action over the last few seasons means his percentages aren't as telling as Vorm's or Tremmel's. These stats show that, statistically, there's a massive contrast between our two pre-existing goalkeepers, as Vorm's strongest point (compared to the average) is stopping shots from close range, where he saves 49% of shots faced.
Tremmel on the other hand, seems incapable of stopping anything from that kind of distance - stopping just 17% of shots faced in Zone 1. Ouch. Interestingly, he's actually above the PL average in every other zone - would it be fair to say that his reactions are severely letting him down? Given he's no spring chicken it seems unlikely he'll be able to improve that aspect of his game too much, so bringing in another goalkeeper is already starting to look like a great shout. It's a shame, as it's clear that he's very strong when it comes to dealing with shots from every other zone.
Fabianski (bearing in mind this is limited data given he's only played thirty-two games over seven seasons for Arsenal) has some great stats! 100% save rate from zones three, four and five, his saves from Zone 2 are almost identical to Vorm's, while his stops from close range (33%) are 11% below the Premier League average - and 16% behind his new rival for the no1 spot Michel Vorm. I'd say that in context, these stats back up what most would say about Vorm - that he's a great reaction keeper but his positioning let's him down in terms of shots from long range. I'd say that he's too keen to come off his line at times, and also that his starting position for long shots does always seem to see him standing quite far off his line.
Paul Riley also agrees, making very similar observations to mine:
"Vorm is super agile which makes him good from close in. He is however a bit too aggressive in his positioning, and suffers from wider positions and from range. As he's often so far out he gets beaten by stuff that 'liners' [goalkeeper's who stay on their goalline] like David De Gea don't."
Next, some different stats, sourced from Barriesview.com. A wealth of data here! Instead of just selecting bits and bobs, let's just include the entire stats page, and give full credit to whoever did this as it can't have been easy to put together!
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| All Premier League goalkeeper stats for the 2013/14 season (click to enlarge) |
Firstly - can I congratulate Garry Monk and co on the signing of Fabianski - who saved EVERY single shot he faced this season! Only Anders Lindergaard and Luke Daniels can also say that, and Daniels only played twelve minutes! :Lindergaard and Fabianski both only played once in the league this season, mind...
Fabianski made five saves in fairness - and given that's more than any other 'keeper made on average per ninety minutes it's safe to assume that's more than most goalkeepers make on average per game. Ok, his only Premier League appearance of the season was on the final day of the season to an already relegated Norwich (did Wenger know he was off to Swansea?), but he did perform very well in European competition this year when he was called upon. He managed to restrict Bayern to only one goal at home (although Arsenal were obviously already out by this point), and did save a penalty at the death to keep it at 1-1. Not many teams get away from the Allianz Arena conceding only one goal - even fewer who play like Arsenal do.
Something which did surprise me is that according to these stats our goalkeepers cost us four penalties this year. I can't say I remember that, but that could again tally with Vorm's positioning - he's too keen to come off his line and it has cost us on a couple of occasions. Comparing the existing Swansea 'keepers on some of these states is interesting too. Vorm made 1.9 saves per goal conceded, while Tremmel only managed 1.5. Fabianski doesn't even have a stat for that, he's so sure-handed! Tremmel also conceded 1.83 goals per 90 minutes as opposed to Vorm's 1.23, so again the Dutchman is obviously on top.
Personally though, and I know that despite all the information above I don't have statistics to prove this, I think Fabianski will go on to be a better keeper than either of the players who kept goal for the Swans during the 13/14 season. I think he's a top keeper, and that the erraticality which blighted him early in his Arsenal career has now disappeared sufficiently to allow him to make a name for himself as a solid Premier League no1. If he can stay fit, I think we've got an absolute cracker on our hands.
That's not to say this spells the end for Michel Vorm, not at all. I still rate him as an excellent shot stopper, and if he can improve the areas of his game which, statistics show, need working on, then he has all the attributes he needs to push Fabianski all the way in the battle for the Swansea no1 shirt this coming season. As for Tremmel though, the writing does seem on the wall. He's been a good servant, and I'm sure everyone wishes him well, but it'd be a big ask to see him playing any football next season.
Thanks to Paul Riley (@footballfactman & www.differentgame.wordpress.com), @GoalImpact & Barriewsview.com for statistics used in these article. All sites and Twitter accounts well worth a look!